Stock Watch: 2026 first-half MVPs for all 30 MLB teams

Welcome to Major League Baseball’s version of the middle.

One of the quirky aspects about MLB’s annual All-Star Game is that the exhibition has long been referred to as the “Midseason Classic” when in reality, by the time it’s played, around 60% of the schedule is already in the books. Quick reminder: By definition, half of anything is 50%.

We love it anyway, so much so that we divide season statistics into “first half” and “second half” distinctions in the splits, with the point of separation being the break. Cal Ripken Jr. played 162 games in most seasons of his career, yet his splits reflect 222 more games on the first-half line of his career record than on the second-half line. Oh well!

While we somehow can’t agree on the literal definition of the word “half” in baseball, we can at least agree that this time of the year is given over to the recognition of baseball’s best-performing players. That’s what the All-Star Game is all about.

Stock Watch is about teams, but we always dedicate our July version to the players, aligning with the spirit of the midseason. To that end, we’ve identified a first-half MVP for each club. In addition, we counted up the number of All-Star-level players on each roster, commenting on what that total says about each team’s first-half performance and its roster construction.

Win average: 106.2 (Last Stock Watch: 104.1, second)
In the playoffs: 100% (Last: 100%)
Champions: 36.1% (Last: 25.3%)

First-half MVP: Shohei Ohtani (156 AXE). No one really thinks of the MVP award as being a function of the best player on the best team anymore, but with Ohtani continuing to star for the Dodgers, it wouldn’t matter if they did. Ohtani is on track to become the first player to put up more than 5.0 WAR as both a hitter and a pitcher in the same season. Ohtani hasn’t been baseball’s best hitter, nor its best pitcher, but he has been its best player.

All-Star-caliber performances: Six (Ohtani, Max Muncy, Andy Pages, Freddie Freeman, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Justin Wrobleski). The Dodgers have gotten two more All-Star-worthy performances than any other team, and it’s certainly no surprise. The six names on that list, however, might warrant a raised eyebrow when considered against preseason forecasts. No Mookie Betts or Blake Snell, but Pages and Wrobleski have filled the void. The Dodgers haven’t just gotten star power — they’ve also flexed their elite depth. They have 15 players in the above-average tier (100-109 AXE), tied for the most in the majors, and no one lands in the bust column (below 90).

Win average: 99.9 (Last: 99.7, third)
In the playoffs: 99.8% (Last: 99.3%)
Champions: 18.3% (Last: 12.4%)

First-half MVP: Jacob Misiorowski (140 AXE). Misiorowski’s jaw-dropping velocity dominates headlines, and it’s easy to understand why. Still, it’s his command that has launched the Miz on a historic trajectory. He has lapped the field so far in strikeout percentage minus walk percentage (32.5%) among qualifying pitchers. That figure ranks third all time among qualifying pitchers (2020 aside) behind Gerrit Cole (2019) and Pedro Martinez (1999).

All-Star-caliber performances: Two (Misiorowski, Brice Turang). The National League has a lot of second basemen who are having strong seasons, but according to AXE, Turang was the single most glaring omission from the initial release of All-Star Game rosters. The Brewers might not feature a large number of players at 120 or more AXE, but they have six members on the first-division tier (110 to 119), most in the NL. Milwaukee continues to win at an elite level while simultaneously getting younger. It’s quite a trick.

Win average: 93.0 (Last: 90.5, fifth)
In the playoffs: 98.6% (Last: 93.3%)
Champions: 9.7% (Last: 3.7%)

First-half MVP: Junior Caminero (125 AXE). Caminero turned 23 this week, reminding us that despite establishing himself as one of baseball’s most-feared hitters, he’s still really young. His official age-23 season, because of the cutoffs for such designations, will be next year. Already at 78 career dingers, Caminero has an excellent chance to enter the top 10 in career homers through that age. Tied for 10th at present with 121 are Juan Gonzalez, Bryce Harper and Mickey Mantle. Everyone with more than that had careers worthy of inner-circle Hall of Fame designation. In other words, Caminero is really good.

All-Star-caliber performances: Four (Caminero, Yandy Diaz, Drew Rasmussen, Nick Martinez). Caminero and Diaz were trade acquisitions from Cleveland, though Caminero was almost entirely developed by the Rays. Rasmussen was picked up from Milwaukee in the Willy Adames deal. Martinez, signed late in free agency before this season, is a high-level journeyman who spent four years pitching in Japan. Now he’s enjoying a career season at age 35. There is no one way the Rays keep winning while operating on the margins. It’s by being open to all the ways.

Win average: 92.2 (Last: 104.7, first)
In the playoffs: 92.8% (Last: 99.9%)
Champions: 5.3% (Last: 21.5%)

First-half MVP: Matt Olson (129 AXE). Beginning with his rookie season in 2017, Olson’s OPS+ figures have been 166, 117, 139, 103, 153, 120, 164, 118 and 137. That’s nine elite offensive seasons that were followed by a solid, but not great, season. He’s mostly bucking that trend so far in 2026, and boy have the Braves needed it with Ronald Acuna Jr.’s ongoing injury problems. Olson is literally a constant in the Atlanta lineup: The next game he misses with the Braves will be his first.

All-Star-caliber performances: Three (Olson, Chris Sale, Michael Harris II). This trio comprises foundational players for the Braves, but the group is perhaps more interesting because of who isn’t in it. Acuna is one, but just as stark are the absences of Drake Baldwin and Spencer Strider. Like Acuna, Strider is still struggling to overcome injury woes and return to star-level production. Baldwin was already there, putting up MVP-like numbers in the season’s opening weeks before falling off and also getting hurt. All of this should be alarming to the Braves’ opponents, because if they get healthy and rolling at some point in the second half, the Braves’ roster will be loaded entering the most crucial time of the year.

Win average: 90.0 (Last: 97.2, fourth)
In the playoffs: 95.7% (Last: 99.6%)
Champions: 8.5% (Last: 18.8%)

First-half MVP: Cam Schlittler (134 AXE). After getting hammered on the last day of June in Detroit, Schlitter’s gem Monday in a key series opener at Tampa Bay (eight innings, one run) showed he remains on a Cy Young trajectory. The Yankees have needed every inning of it. After Schlitter’s star turn in last year’s postseason, his strong follow-up isn’t exactly a surprise. Still, if the playoffs began today, you’d have to think he’d get the Game 1 nod in the Yankees’ first series. On a staff with Cole, Carlos Rodon and Max Fried, that’s saying a lot.

All-Star-caliber performances: Three (Schlittler, Cody Bellinger, Ben Rice). Aaron Judge is missing because of his injury, but with a 117 AXE, he’s not far off from being in the All-Star group. The performance of this trio is the biggest reason the Yankees, for a time, kept winning even when Judge went down. When they all slumped, the Yankees struggled. It’s hard to say when Judge will be back, so the onus remains on Schlittler, Bellinger and Rice to keep lighting the path.

Win average: 88.7 (Last: 83.0, 13th)
In the playoffs: 78.4% (Last: 42.9%)
Champions: 3.4% (Last: 0.6%)

First-half MVP: Pete Crow-Armstrong (151 AXE). Despite a pitching staff that has been leveled by an avalanche of injuries, the Cubs remain in the wild-card mix because of the upswings of their streaky lineup, MLB-best team defense … and PCA, who would be the NL’s MVP front-runner in a universe without Shohei Ohtani. Crow-Armstrong is an all-timer on defense and leverages his elite speed on the bases. But improved swing decisions have led to even more consistent power. He keeps getting better and has become one of baseball’s best all-around players.

All-Star-caliber performances: One (Crow-Armstrong). PCA and Ohtani are the only two players in the 150-plus tier. The Cubs have no one in the 120, 130 or 140 tiers but have five in the 110 tier. All five are position players. In fact, 12 of Chicago’s top 13 performers by AXE are position players. The optimistic view of this from the bleachers is that if the pitching staff can get at least a little bit healthy, this is a Cubs team that can go on a real run.

Win average: 87.7 (Last: 86.6, eighth)
In the playoffs: 72.1% (Last: 68.1%)
Champions: 2.1% (Last: 1.6%)

First-half MVP: Cristopher Sanchez (139 AXE). This updated AXE includes Sanchez’s head-scratching shellacking Monday at Kansas City, an egg-laying that bolstered Jacob Misiorowski’s front-runner status in the Cy Young conversation. It’s baseball — the inexplicable happens from time to time. Still, Sanchez’s three worst outings this season have come during a five-start stretch since mid-June. Perhaps this all wouldn’t seem so alarming had Sanchez not gone the entire month of May without allowing a run.

All-Star-caliber performances: Four (Sanchez, Zack Wheeler, Kyle Schwarber, Jesus Luzardo). Bryce Harper and Jhoan Duran (117 AXE) and Brandon Marsh (115) aren’t far off the 120-or-better tier, underscoring just how star-heavy the Phillies’ roster construction has been under president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. One reason this has worked is that those star players, veterans though they might be, have generally been available. According to an injury index I maintain based on data from Baseball Prospectus, the Phillies have been the least impacted team in baseball in the injury department. Just being there goes a long way, especially when you are operating on the stars-over-depth model.

Win average: 85.8 (Last: 88.4, sixth)
In the playoffs: 83.2% (Last: 89.3%)
Champions: 6.5% (Last: 7.1%)

First-half MVP: Randy Arozarena (121 AXE). Arozarena has had a nice first half built on all-around play and a fair number of big hits. His production has been the best combination of quality and quantity among Seattle’s hitters, as he leads the club in batting average, on-base percentage and stolen bases. And he has done it with his usual flair.

All-Star-caliber performances: Two (Arozarena, Logan Gilbert). No Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Luis Castillo, George Kirby or Andres Munoz? Nope, and that’s why the Mariners have been fluttering around the .500 mark all season, wasting a chance to put a stranglehold on a weak division. The Mariners lead the majors with nine players in the first-division tier (110 AXE or better), so the depth has been there. But for this team to reach a ceiling that ought to include pennant contention, Seattle needs its stars to produce like stars.

Win average: 85.7 (Last: 74.5, 22nd)
In the playoffs: 55.8% (Last: 4.8%)
Champions: 1.1% (Last: 0.0%)

First-half MVP: Otto Lopez (139 AXE). Lopez’s run at the NL batting title is a fine avatar for a Marlins season that few saw coming. Lopez, 27, is in only his second full season as a regular but has turned into a star just a couple of years after the Blue Jays and Giants wrote him off. He has always been a high-contact hitter, but this season he has become more selectively aggressive by laying off first pitches, then raking as soon as he gets a pitch he likes. Lopez is using the whole field more than ever, which at least in part explains a fluffy .377 BABIP, and is doing more damage. He has been the best shortstop in the NL this season.

All-Star-caliber performances: Three (Lopez, Max Meyer, Xavier Edwards). Along with Lopez, Edwards has given the Marlins the most productive middle infield in the majors. Meyer has matured into the front-line starter the prospect mavens once projected him to be. But as the Marlins continue to insert themselves into the center of the NL wild-card derby, this team has a lot more going for it than this trio. The depth has been terrific. Miami’s ratio of players with an average-or-better AXE to those below (0.82) ranks third in the NL behind the Dodgers and Pirates. The MLB average is 0.55.

Win average: 84.6 (Last: 87.2, seventh)
In the playoffs: 74.1% (Last: 86.2%)
Champions: 2.3% (Last: 3.3%)

First-half MVP: Parker Messick (126 AXE). Messick has been fantastic, and with a huge second half would be a big part of the AL’s wide-open Cy Young conversation. Still, the real MVP in Cleveland has been the high-leverage contingent of its bullpen, led by Cade Smith, Colin Holderman and Erik Sabrowski.

All-Star-caliber performances: Two (Messick, Brayan Rocchio). Let’s not forget that after seemingly establishing himself as the Guardians’ every-day shortstop in 2024, Rocchio struggled so badly in 2025 that he ended playing 41 games in Triple-A and in the majors finished below replacement level. This season has been a tremendous bounce-back campaign for Rocchio in every part of the game, but especially at the plate. He entered the season with a career OPS+ of 75 but has surged to 110 in 2026.

Win average: 84.2 (Last: 84.7, ninth
In the playoffs: 40.3% (Last: 52.5%)
Champions: 0.5% (Last: 0.5%)

First-half MVP: JJ Wetherholt (135 AXE). At 23 and in his first taste of the major leagues, Wetherholt has established himself as the NL’s Rookie of the Year favorite, the Cardinals’ best player and perhaps the new face of one of the game’s most storied franchises. He has done it by being good at everything, and doing it with consistency and an implacable approach beyond his years.

All-Star-caliber performances: Two (Wetherholt, Jordan Walker). Walker didn’t quite enter the majors with Wetherholt’s level of hype, but there was plenty of ballyhoo surrounding his upside with the bat when he broke in at age 21 in 2023. Over his first three seasons, he limped to an 89 OPS+ and minus-2.6 bWAR. This season: 146 OPS+, 3.5 bWAR and an NL-leading 67 RBIs. The Cardinals’ surprise season features other success stories, but this duo should be leading the way in St. Louis for years to come.

Win average: 83.3 (Last: 79.2, 16th)
In the playoffs: 59.4% (Last: 32.8%)
Champions: 1.2% (Last: 0.3%)

First-half MVP: Miguel Vargas (132 AXE). Vargas was a hyped Dodgers prospect unable to establish himself with that star-laden franchise. He has gotten a full runway with the upstart White Sox and taken off in 2026. His MVP-worthy AXE is driven by his 138 OPS+ and above average numbers on the bases and in the field. But it’s been pushed into the elite by a No. 3 ranking in win probability added. In a very young lineup, Vargas has become the guy opponents don’t want to face with the game on the line.

All-Star-caliber performances: Four (Vargas, Davis Martin, Tristan Peters, Colson Montgomery). Vargas is the guy with the mid-career breakout. Montgomery is the lauded prospect making good on the hype. Martin is the solid end-of-rotation starter enjoying a career season. All of these scenarios would have seemed plausible before the season. But Tristan Peters, the one-time Savannah Banana, has caught everyone off guard, including his own team. If the White Sox are baseball’s Cinderella story in 2026, Peters is the one wearing the glass slippers.

Win average: 83.0 (Last: 83.5, 10th)
In the playoffs: 62.8% (Last: 64.8%)
Champions: 1.8% (Last: 1.9%)

First-half MVP: Josh Jung (118 AXE). The keys for Jung have been health and improved command of the strike zone. Strikeouts are way down, walks are way up, and the quality of contact has been outstanding. Jung’s track record at the plate has been one of steady improvement. The only thing keeping his AXE just below All-Star level is his defensive metrics at third base, which are disappointing for a player who names Brooks Robinson as his all-time favorite player.

All-Star-caliber performances: Zero. The Rangers, Orioles and Rockies are the only three teams that didn’t get anyone into the All-Star tier. The Rangers and Orioles have similar roster constructions, as the only two clubs with zero All-Star-level AXEs but also no one in the bust column — giving both clubs MEH ratings well above average. (MEH is a measure of how many roster spots have gone to players producing close to but below-average AXE levels. And yes, it’s something I measure and what else would I call it?) That’s enough to keep a team in the running in the 2026 American League, but some star breakouts from the likes of Jacob deGrom, Corey Seager and Wyatt Langford would help the Rangers differentiate themselves.

Win average: 82.0 (Last: 83.3, 12th)
In the playoffs: 24.6% (Last: 45.6%)
Champions: 0.6% (Last: 0.7%)

First-half MVP: Bryan Reynolds (126 AXE). For years, it seemed like Reynolds would become the next steady Pirates performer to be dealt for future value. Somehow, he remains a career Pirate, and it seems fitting that he’s enjoying his best all-around season on the first Pittsburgh squad with a real shot at the postseason during his career. Reynolds has been a very steady player for a very long time, and while he’s not an MVP candidate, it would be great to see him get some spotlight in a playoff setting.

All-Star-caliber performances: Three (Reynolds, Braxton Ashcraft, Brandon Lowe). These guys have been terrific, but let’s face it, the formula for the Pirates in 2026 was basically this: an improved roster with a higher floor that could be league average in the spots other than the one occupied by Paul Skenes, whose brilliance would put Pittsburgh over the top and into the playoffs. Skenes (117 AXE and No. 19 ranking among NL pitchers) can still make that happen. But the sooner we get his next dominant outing, the better the good people of Pittsburgh will feel.

Win average: 80.7 (Last: 77.8, 18th)
In the playoffs: 15.6% (Last: 12.2%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.1%)

First-half MVP: James Wood (133 AXE). Wood is not just one of baseball’s most exciting players — he’s one of the best. His flair for the dramatic was on full display Monday, when his 446-foot grand slam sparked the Nationals to a 12-11 comeback vs. the Astros. Only Olson and Crow-Armstrong rank ahead of Wood in win probability added among NL hitters. And if you like historic paces: Wood is on pace to score 143 runs, which would shatter Tim Raines’ Expos/Nationals team record of 133, set 43 years ago.

All-Star-caliber performances: Two (Wood, CJ Abrams). Wood and Abrams, both part of the deal that sent Juan Soto to the Padres, have certainly put in the time with the perpetually rebuilding Nationals to enjoy a season like this. Just below the 120 threshold, and currently on an epic power binge, is underrated Luis Garcia Jr. There are still a lot of holes on this Washington roster, especially on the pitching side, but this team is fun to watch — and part of that fun are the bullpen foibles that mean no Nationals lead is safe.

Win average: 80.3 (Last: 83.4, 11th)
In the playoffs: 14.5% (Last: 43.8%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.4%)

First-half MVP: Corbin Carroll (130 AXE). Other than a strangely lackluster first half in 2024, Carroll’s performance as a big-league hitter has been remarkably consistent. With the exception of those bad couple of months, he’s operated in a narrow OPS+ band between 132 and 141 and sits at 134 this season. None of this is negative — Carroll is one of seven NL players with an AXE of 130 or better, the cutoff I use to designated MVP-level play. It just feels like there is a 150 AXE season in there, or even half a season, and if Carroll were to go off like that the rest of the season, it would be the best reason to think the Diamondbacks can break their up-and-down cycle in 2026 and return to the postseason.

All-Star-caliber performances: Two (Carroll, Eduardo Rodriguez). Rodriguez and Mike Soroka were the two starters who kept a struggling rotation from bottoming out, and then Soroka got hurt. That leaves Rodriguez, who already has put up the second-highest bWAR total of a big league career that began in 2015. With a 191 ERA+, this has been by far his best season to date. Alas, for the Diamondbacks, an E-Rod regression is more than a concern — it’s an inevitability, so the rest of that rotation better pick up the pace.

Win average: 79.8 (Last: 73.6, 25th)
In the playoffs: 33.4% (Last: 7.6%)
Champions: 0.7% (Last: 0.1%)

First-half MVP: Byron Buxton (123 AXE). It’s hard not to wonder what Buxton might have been. All of those missed games because of injury didn’t just eat into his career numbers, they also cost him chances to fine-tune his offensive approach. Nevertheless, even though Buxton’s knee problems have had an undeniable effect on his defense and baserunning, he has been a much better hitter since turning 30. Through age 29, Buxton hit .239/.300/.468 for a 106 OPS+ while averaging 28 homers per 162 games. This is the third season of Buxton’s thirties, during which he has a .271/.330/.549 slash line, a 140 OPS+ and an average of 42 homers per 162 games. Clearly Buxton learned some lessons along the way, and he’s showing that in 2026, a season in which he’s on pace to play his most games since taking the field 140 times in 2017.

All-Star-caliber performances: Two (Buxton, Joe Ryan). That Buxton and Ryan are producing like this is no surprise, but the Twins need more than just them to remain competitive. Minnesota has been mostly competitive in 2026 because of a slew of above-average, non-spectacular performances from the lesser-known players on its revamped roster. The Twins have gotten at least average production from 45% of their players this season, the second-highest total in the AL. Not many of those performers have been pitchers, especially relievers, and that’s why the Twins are stuck in the middle despite a surprisingly productive offense.

Win average: 79.8 (Last: 77.3, 19th)
In the playoffs: 31.9% (Last: 21.8%)
Champions: 0.6% (Last: 0.3%)

First-half MVP: Yordan Alvarez (140 AXE). Alvarez’s Baseball Reference page is a trip right now. As good as he has been since arriving in the majors, Alvarez has never really led the AL in anything. Thus, his record was sans the bolded font (indicating a league leader) that you look for in great hitters. This season, his line is virtually all bold. With the Astros charging back into playoff contention and Alvarez a real candidate to win a Triple Crown, his path to AL MVP seems clear.

All-Star-caliber performances: One (Alvarez). That Alvarez is Houston’s only All-Star-level producer is appropriate for a top-heavy roster. The Astros’ ratio of average-to-below-average AXE ratings (0.32) is the worst in baseball. And there aren’t a lot of obvious candidates for those under the 100 threshold to join the party. The Astros are on pace to win close to 80 games but have the projected run differential of a 73-win team. The AL landscape has kept Houston alive, but this remains a team with a very small margin for error.

Win average: 77.9 (Last: 79.9, 14th)
In the playoffs: 5.5% (Last: 20.9%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.2%)

First-half MVP: Mason Miller (122 AXE). Miller is great, no doubt about it. Even though the amazing season put up by Toronto’s Louis Varland means Miller ranks only second among relievers in AXE, there is no one you’d rather have on the hill to close out a game. He has a chance to strike out at least 100 more batters than he walks, which, for a reliever, is rare. It has happened just 24 times, the last being Edwin Diaz in 2022, when he struck out exactly 100 more batters than he walked.

All-Star-caliber performances: One (Miller). As great as Miller has been, he’s the AXE leader on a team with Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Jackson Merrill. That’s not the way this was supposed to go for the Padres, especially because quality depth is so lacking. The Padres can’t win without their stars starring, and we’ve been seeing the consequences of that lately.

Win average: 77.6 (Last: 74.5, 22nd)
In the playoffs: 20.9% (Last: 10.7%)
Champions: 0.5% (Last: 0.1%)

First-half MVP: Willson Contreras (127 AXE). The surprising downturn of the Boston offense this season has been hard to watch, but none of that is Contreras’ fault. At 34, he has never been better. His 159 OPS+ is by far a career best, and his 3.6 bWAR is already less than a win from his apex — 4.2 in 2021 for the Cubs.

All-Star-caliber performances: Two (Contreras, Ceddanne Rafaela). Rafaela has been an above-average hitter for the first time in his career, and when you combine that with his typical off-the-charts defensive numbers, you have one heck of a player. The performance of this pair, along with Wilyer Abreu and much of the starting rotation, has kept Boston’s season alive, if just barely. But there is a lot of positive regression to be had on the healthy version of this roster, so you never know.

Win average: 77.0 (Last: 73.7, 24th)
In the playoffs: 16.4% (Last: 9.4%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 0.2%)

First-half MVP: Kevin McGonigle (136 AXE). If you knew that McGonigle would not only live up to the hype but soar beyond it, you’d think the Tigers would be leading the AL Central by 10 games. Alas, McGonigle is a Rookie of the Year favorite who deserves down-ballot MVP support, but the big story in Detroit is about a possible Tarik Skubal trade. In any event, it’s hard to believe McGonigle (57 walks against 52 strikeouts) is just 21. If you love watching a player grind at-bats and dominate the strike zone, McGonigle is your guy.

All-Star-caliber performances: Three (McGonigle, Dillon Dingler, Casey Mize). As mentioned, my threshold for an MVP-worthy AXE is 130, which happens to be Dingler’s figure at the moment. In other words, he and McGonigle give the Tigers a pair of MVP-level producers. Mize, the 2018 No. 1 pick, has been the Tigers’ best pitcher, at least in terms of quantity and quality combined. Keider Montero (119) and Riley Greene (118) aren’t far behind this trio. So many good things in Detroit, most of them undermined by injury and underperformance elsewhere on the roster.

Win average: 76.2 (Last: 76.5, 20th)
In the playoffs: 10.3% (Last: 18.1%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.2%)

First-half MVP: Pete Alonso (116 AXE). After slow start, Alonso has become more or less the same player he was year-in and year-out for the Mets. He’ll have to pick up the pace to get to the 40 homers and 114 RBIs he averaged during his last five New York seasons, but he could do it. A strong second half would be big for both Alonso and the Orioles. The Orioles have plenty to fix and need Alonso, in the first season of a five-year contract, to not become one of those things.

All-Star-caliber performances: Zero. Behind Alonso on the first-division tier are Adley Rutschman (113 AXE), Gunnar Henderson (111) and Samuel Basallo (110). Rutschman has been better this season after a down 2025, and while he and Basallo are both catchers, they’ve hit well enough to justify their time DHing. Henderson’s numbers are a head-scratcher, though. This is a guy who put up 8.8 bWAR at age 23 just two years ago. Now he’s hitting .223 with a sub-.300 OBP. The Orioles need more from him. Much more.

Win average: 75.9 (Last: 79.6, 15th)
In the playoffs: 9.0% (Last: 36.3%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last: 0.6%)

First-half MVP: Dylan Cease (127 AXE). Cease moved into second place in AXE among AL pitchers after his spotless seven innings against Seattle on Friday. He leads the AL in strikeouts, FIP and strikeouts per nine. Cease is still prone to outings with control lapses, but when he’s on, he’s as dominating as any pitcher in the game. He’s also durable. Cease is on pace to start at least 32 games for a sixth straight season.

All-Star-caliber performances: Two (Cease, Louis Varland). The Blue Jays’ season is on the brink as it is — imagine where they’d be if Varland hadn’t risen up to fill the void created by Jeff Hoffman‘s struggles. Still, the lack of any Toronto hitters in this group — the ones who launched the Blue Jays into the 2025 World Series — is problematic. Bo Bichette is gone, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has an achy back, and George Springer has an 86 OPS+. Kazuma Okamoto has hit for power and has a team-high OPS+ (108), but on last year’s team, he would have been lost in the shuffle.

Win average: 73.4 (Last: 78.1, 17th)
In the playoffs: 4.2% (Last: 25.6%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.2%)

First-half MVP: Nick Kurtz (136 AXE). Kurtz’s momentum has slowed some of late, but you can say that about the Athletics as a whole. That doesn’t change the fact that Kurtz is a flat out star at the plate. And he’s still getting better. One of the amazing things about Kurtz’s huge 2025 rookie season (170 OPS+) was that he put up those numbers while hitting .197/.261/.423 against lefties. This season, he’s at .271/.372/.449.

All-Star-caliber performances: Two (Kurtz, Shea Langeliers). Langeliers joins Kurtz as the Athletics’ actual All-Stars. Alas, the thin pitching in Sacramento has rendered the A’s as baseball’s coldest team, with by far the bigger falloff coming among the hurlers. Also, the Athletics’ four players in the bust category is tied for the most in the AL, and three of them were projected to be core performers — Jeffrey Springs, Jeff McNeil and Lawrence Butler. That’s a lot of collective struggle to overcome.

Win average: 71.9 (Last: 72.5, 26th)
In the playoffs: 0.5% (Last: 2.4%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

First-half MVP: Chase Burns (133 AXE). Burns has quickly risen to ace status as a representative of a remarkable 2024 draft class that has already made a lot of impact. Joining Burns in that group is Nick Kurtz, JJ Wetherholt, Cam Smith, Trey Yesavage, Konnor Griffin, Carson Benge, Travis Bazzana, Jac Caglianone and Braden Montgomery. They sure grow up fast these days.

All-Star-caliber performances: One (Burns). At the end of April, the Reds were 20-11, tied for the second-best record in the NL with the Dodgers. They then lost their first eight games in May and have never really recovered. Burns has been the only constant. Sal Stewart started like a house of fire and had a .943 OPS at that point. It has been .733 since, and he has fallen from 85th in AXE to 164th. Elly De La Cruz has slipped from 23rd to 69th. And yet none of this might have mattered if the Reds’ bullpen had found any kind of footing.

Win average: 69.8 (Last: 69.2, 28th)
In the playoffs: 0.1% (Last: 0.6%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

First-half MVP: Luis Arraez (121 AXE). Arraez ranks behind All-Star omissions Brice Turang and Brandon Lowe among NL second baseman, but, as mentioned, it has been a deep position in the Senior Circuit this year and Arraez is enjoying a fine season. His strikeout rate (4.0%) is nearly half that of second-place Nico Hoerner (7.8%) on the leaderboard, but it’s right in line with Arraez’s career record. More importantly, Arraez’s average is less empty in 2026 thanks to a career-best isolated power figure of .133. He remains a man out of his time.

All-Star-caliber performances: One (Arraez). Rafael Devers has been revving up his power bat lately, but for the season as a whole, the Giants have been mostly devoid of star-level performances. Their ratio of players with an average-or-better AXE to those below (0.36) is the NL’s worst, and their 91% MEH rating is the highest in the circuit. If a team reaches 90% in MEH, it should start discounting its ticket prices.

Win average: 68.3 (Last: 75.6, 21st)
In the playoffs: 0.1% (Last: 7.2%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)

First-half MVP: Juan Soto (126 AXE). Soto’s season has representative of what is probably a Hall of Fame journey. He missed some games, which is going to hurt his end-of-season counting numbers. But he’s leading the NL in OPS+, OBP and slugging. For all that has gone wrong with the Mets, Soto’s performance isn’t one of them. He’s doing what the Mets paid him to do.

All-Star-caliber performances: One (Soto). Ranking behind Soto on the AXE leaderboard among Mets hitters are rookies Carson Benge (107 AXE) and A.J. Ewing (also 107). That’s good for them, but it’s not how this team was built. Bo Bichette (102) — who has picked up the pace, but he almost had to — and Francisco Lindor (100) are the headlining shortfalls. But the real dirt is found in the bust bin: Marcus Semien (88), Kodai Senga (84) and Mark Vientos (82).

Win average: 67.5 (Last: 71.6, 27th)
In the playoffs: 0.2% (Last: 4.4%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

First-half MVP: Bobby Witt Jr. (143 AXE). Witt is enjoying another all-world season. With a big second half at the plate, he could be in line for his first MVP award, assuming he creates some separation from Alvarez and the rest of the field. He’s not likely to get much of a boost from the championship probability added component of AXE, as the Royals are hopelessly out of contention. But Witt continues to make watching the Royals worth the time and aggravation.

All-Star-caliber performances: One (Witt). There are five players with AXE ratings of 140 or better, so Witt gives the Royals a heck of headliner. Their AXE board drops from him to second-place Michael Wacha at 118. Wacha will join Witt on the AL All-Star team. But the Royals are one of just three teams with an MLB-low two players with AXE ratings of 110 or better. The news isn’t all bad in Kansas City: Jac Caglianone and Carter Jensen have been coming on, and that duo, along with Witt and Maikel Garcia, give the Royals the foundation of a strong lineup going forward.

Win average: 63.9 (Last: 63.3, 29th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

First-half MVP: Mike Trout (122 AXE). Even though Trout has spent much of the leadup to the All-Star break on the IL, it has been a resurgent season for him. He needs to stay relatively healthy for that to remain true, but he has managed to close the gap between his walks and strikeouts to a level we haven’t seen in years. And while Trout might never replicate the lofty batting averages he used to post, he still does plenty of damage on contact. It would be great to see him in the playoffs.

All-Star-caliber performances: One (Trout). It would be an exaggeration to say that Trout has been a one-man show. But his lone presence here is kind of symbolic for this era of Angels baseball. Reid Detmers (117 AXE), Zach Neto (115) and Jose Soriano (114) have all been good. But let’s face it, if the Angels’ roster construction worked, they wouldn’t be employing an interim general manager.

Win average: 63.6 (Last: 56.8, 30th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

First-half MVP: TJ Rumfield (115 AXE). Plucked from the Yankees’ system, Rumfield has been a real find for the Rockies. And here’s the thing that excites you: Rumfield’s slash line is .297/.375/.486. Very solid but, then again, he’s a Coors Field guy, so how good is it really? Well, Rumfield’s slash line on the road (.294/.366/.477) isn’t much of a drop from his overall line. This is exactly the kind of dynamic the Rockies need to create up and down the lineup.

All-Star-caliber performances: Zero. OK, so no All-Star-level performers, not even Rumfield. Too often over the past couple of years, the Rockies have landed in the No. 30 slot in a Stock Watch and I’ve written some pithy or weary-sounding sentence or two to finish the piece and sum up their depressing reality. But if you’re looking for signs that the new regime is making progress in solving some of Colorado’s longstanding riddles, consider this: The Rockies are averaging 4.71 runs per game this season — on the road. That’s the second-best average in team history, just behind the 4.72 runs per game the 2007 pennant-winning Rockies put up away from Coors. If you were looking for a good sign for this franchise, could there be a better one than that?