The United States men’s national team are potentially 90 minutes away from a milestone they haven’t reached in nearly a quarter century — a World Cup quarterfinal. Standing in the way Monday night at Lumen Field in Seattle are a battle-tested Belgium side that have haunted the Americans before. Most memorably in that heartbreaking 2014 round of 16 clash in Brazil which Belgium won 2-1 in extra time, with Tim Howard making a FIFA World Cup record 16 saves in the game.
The two have met as recently as March, with Belgium winning a friendly in Atlanta, 5-2.
On a positive note, Mauricio Pochettino won’t need to solve the puzzle of replacing leading scorer Folarin Balogun, whose red card against Bosnia and Herzegovina was suspended by FIFA, making him eligible for Monday’s match.
What does Balogun’s availability do for USMNT?
Allows the USMNT to stick to their guns: Belgium are the oddsmakers’ favorites for a reason, but this version of the U.S. team does not fit the archetype of the underdog, in large part because they have done well in an attack-minded, high-intensity setup. Conventional wisdom would suggest that they prioritize defensive stability and head coach Mauricio Pochettino just might bake it into the game plan but it seems unlikely that they will shed their identity. Balogun is a key part of the approach, so expect another aggressive, competitive match for the U.S. team. — Pardeep Cattry
Win the game: While I don’t want to say that the USMNT can’t win without Balogun in the lineup, it’s fair to say that their options after him are uninspiring. I’m a big Ricardo Pepi fan, and he has a role in this team, but leading the line he struggled at the World Cup, Haji Wright has been managing an injury, and while Christian Pulisic can play the nine, it’s far from his best postion. Balogun has been a revelation leading the line for this team being able to create his own shot and make things happen, and the team is better for it. — Chuck Booth
Tips the balance in a close match: Everything suggests this match will be a close one. The odds, the projection models, the history, it all suggests a tight battle. In that situation, the smallest of margins can make the difference. Balogun isn’t the USMNT’s best player, but against Bosnia and Herzegovina he was, at least for the hour he was on the pitch. He would have been irreplaceable. Without him, Belgium was a small favorite; with him, the USMNT should be. — Mike Goodman
It makes them favorites again: I did not care for the team’s chances against Belgium without him, I’m not all that convinced with him, but they certainly have a much better chance with the AS Monaco guy in the lineup. His versatility and speed open up a ton of space, especially for players who like to trail into the box from wide positions. He’s been prolific, and simply put, he’s been the team’s best player in this tournament. It’s a massive boost for the Americans. — Roger Gonzalez
Key to the game
Keeping Jeremy Doku at bay: The USMNT will like their chances against a Belgium team that has not been all that impressive in attack at this World Cup but in Jeremy Doku, the Red Devils have a dynamic player who can single-handedly win a game for Belgium if need be. He already did it against the U.S. in a 5-2 friendly win in March, though a more experimental version of Pochettino’s team played that day. Even at full strength, USMNT would struggle to defend Doku, though, because everybody struggles to defend Doku. Finding a way to limit him, though, means the margin for error shrinks considerably. — Pardeep Cattry
Getting the best out of Dest: The best defense for the United States has been their attack, and while Sergino Dest was excellent to open the World Cup against Paraguay, there was a bit of a drop off when facing Bosnia and Herzegovina. Belgium as their players who will hurt you, and I’m not sure that the United States can do much to avoid the Red Devils scoring, but Belgium will allow chances. Take those and don’t fall apart in the 80th minute and that’s a win. Dest has the dynamism to make that happen. — Chuck Booth
Staying aggressive: Pochettino has this team playing on the front foot. They don’t necessarily need to have the ball all the time, but when they get it they need to attack quickly, and crucially, with numbers. Midfielders McKennie and Tillman need to be breaking forward into the box, supporting Dest and Pulisic attacking the box with the ball at their feet. Belgium’s weapons, like Doku and De Bruyne are scary, but if the USMNT are cowed into being conservative in their positioning to counteract them they’ll be taken completely out of their game. They need to trust what’s gotten them, and be willing to try and outscore this Belgium side– Mike Goodman
Dealing with Belgium’s individual technical ability: Look, we’ve been told to look out for Belgium at every tournament since 2010. Sure, they made a great run in 2018, but they never convinced during their golden age to truly contend. Those past teams were better, but this team still has so much quality. Not even considering Thibaut Courtois in goal, the world’s best in his position, I think the concern rests more with what players like Leandro Trossard and Jeremy Doku can do. They both can be individually brilliant, and I suspect that if they can get on the ball enough, they will cause serious trouble for this USA backline. — Roger Gonzalez
What Belgian player should worry USA fans the most
Thibaut Courtois: Jeremy Doku is the obvious answer but he is not the only Belgium player capable of changing the game all by himself. Thibaut Courtois has been a top-tier goalkeeper for more than a decade now and like Doku, could very simply come up with a batch of impressive saves that look all the more dazzling thanks to his 6’7″ frame. He will be up for the task of facing an attack-minded USMNT, without a doubt. — Pardeep Cattry
Trossard: Doku’s dangerous, sure, but this has been the World Cup of Leandro Trossard. With two goals and an assist so far, he has been taking the initiative to push Belgium’s attack even when others seem fearful to do so. I don’t particularly know what’s going on with this Belgium team but I do know that Trossard is going to shoot and leave everything on the pitch for the Red Devils. — Chuck Booth
Doku: He’s one of the most dangerous wingers with the ball at his feet. He’s relentless, attacking the box and at his best creating for others. Doku terrorized the USMNT right flank when they met in a pre-tournament friendly. He’s pretty unstoppable. He’s going to create chances for Belgium, the USMNT’s saving grace might be that there won’t be anybody there to finish them. — Mike Goodman
Doku: I just think that if he can get into wide spaces and run towards the box with pace, he can score or create, but he can also draw fouls that could be punishable from set pieces. I expect him to see a lot of the ball and be the deciding factor in their attack. — Roger Gonzalez
Who wins and why
USA 2, Belgium 1: This game feels more like a toss-up than any of the USMNT’s matches so far at this World Cup, the result depending entirely on whether or not either team actually comes up with their best or arrives to the game as an underwhelming version of themsleves that we’ve all seen before. The U.S. team’s defensive weaknesses will likely be exposed at some point but Belgium have been very inconsistent in attack, which may ultimately cost them a deep run at this World Cup. — Pardeep Cattry
USA 2, Belgium 1: The Balogun effect is real. Yes, Belgium can hurt the United States and the memories of March are still fresh, but this is a Belgium side who have essentialy played 55 minutes of good soccer during this World Cup. Keep your cool, take your chances, and good things will come. The USMNT has been doing that under Pochettino, and I expect it to continue. — Chuck Booth
USA 3, Belgium 1: These two teams are evenly matched, but Belgium have struggled at this tournament. It’ll be a close match, but look for USMNT to hold a narrow edge and nurse a narrow edge late in the game where they add on a third as Belgium desperately chase an equalizer. Belgium’s defense has really struggled and an aggressive USMNT side won’t be afraid to test them, and pass that test.– Mike Goodman
Belgium 2, USA 1: The U.S. have impressed me and continue to prove me wrong. So maybe this will be the jinx for the USMNT fans. I know the game is not played on paper, and Belgium have been far from convincing, but I think they learned their lessons from the narrow win over Senegal and end USA’s run on Monday night. — Roger Gonzalez
