Pick Six: Details on Aldon’s Smith death | Which NFL team could be next Knicks?

Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

I don’t know how it happened, but we have reached the end of the NFL offseason. By the end of this week, all 32 teams will be on vacation until late July when training camp opens. But before that can happen, we have 11 teams that will be taking the field this week for mandatory minicamp. 

This is where I point out that not every team held a minicamp this year: The 49ers and Rams both canceled their mandatory minicamp. The NFL is a copycat league, so if either of those teams ends up winning the Super Bowl, I’m guessing everyone is going to cancel minicamp next year. 

With the final round of minicamps getting underway, we’ll go through some overreactions from last week’s set of minicamps in today’s newsletter. 

As always, here’s your reminder to tell your friends to sign up for the newsletter. It makes the perfect Father’s Day gift, and that’s mostly because it’s free. Alright, let’s get to the rundown.

1. Former NFL All-Pro Aldon Smith passes away at 36 

The NFL suffered a tragic loss over the weekend with the death of Aldon Smith. The former 49ers All-Pro defensive end passed away on Saturday in the Bay Area at age 36. 

Here’s what we know about the situation: 

• Smith’s final act was a display of kindness. Just hours before he died, Smith helped deliver some pizzas to a local charity, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. Smith was with a friend, Amir Shirazi, on the day of his death. According to Shirazi, the two stopped at a gas station after delivering the pizzas and then made a pitstop at Shirazi’s house in Los Gatos, California. Shirazi ran inside his house, and when he got back out, Smith was slumped over in the car. “He was perfectly fine an hour before,” Shirazi told the Chronicle. “I came out and he was basically dead in my front seat. I’m just in shock.”

Smith was once viewed as one of the top young pass rushers in the NFL, but legal problems derailed his career, as he was  arrested 10 times in nine years. 

• Smith’s career got off to a hot start. The 49ers selected Smith with the No. 7 overall pick in the 2011 draft, and he was a superstar almost right away. During his rookie year, Smith racked up 14 sacks, finishing as the runner-up for the Defensive Rookie of the Year award behind Von Miller. In 2012, Smith was even better: He totaled 19.5 sacks, which earned him first-team All-Pro honors during a season in which the 49ers ended up making the Super Bowl. Smith still holds the NFL record for most sacks in a player’s first two seasons with 33.5. 
• Smith’s troubles started early. Smith dealt with multiple arrests, including an incident in October 2013 when he was hit with three felony charges of possessing illegal assault weapons. Smith was eventually hit with a nine-game suspension to start the 2014 season, and his downward spiral in the NFL started shortly after that. The 49ers eventually cut Smith following the 2014 season, and he would only play 25 more games in his career (nine with the Raiders in 2015 and 16 with the Cowboys in 2020). After missing four seasons due to multiple suspensions from 2016 through 2019, Smith returned to the NFL in 2020 and had an impressive season with the Cowboys, but he never played another down after that. 
• Smith’s haunting final interview. Just weeks before his death, Smith joined Tee Maultsby for a barbershop conversation. During that talk, he admitted that he wasn’t doing well. “I’ve definitely had better days,” Smith said. “It’s along the lines of, it’s something I think I’ve been dealing with my whole life and I’m just struggling with accepting how it’s playing out right now.” The interview was released in three parts with part one here, part two here and part three here. 

We’ve got a full story on Smith, and you can see it here. 

2. Ranking teams most likely to end their Super Bowl drought

If no one in New York City shows up for work today, it’s because they’re all still out celebrating the Knicks’ title win. The Knicks took down the Spurs on Saturday in Game 5 of the NBA Finals to clinch their first championship in 53 years. That’s right, Knicks fans suffered for more than five decades before getting the chance to see their team return to the top of the NBA. 

With the Knicks ending their long drought, that got us thinking about which NFL team has the best chance of ending a long title drought this year. Bryan DeArdo ranked 17 teams based on their chance of bringing their drought to an end. There are two ways a team could qualify for this ranking: 

• Teams that have gone at least 30 years without an NFL title.
• Teams that have never won a title.

Let’s check out the top three teams in DeArdo’s rankings: 

1. Bills

• Last title: 1965 AFL Championship
• DeArdo’s breakdown: The Bills’ current Super Bowl window will remain open as long as Josh Allen plays MVP-caliber football. Buffalo is hoping that new coach and former offensive coordinator Joe Brady can get the Bills over the finish line. Allen is also going to need more from a defense that has often let him down in the postseason.

2. Bengals

• Last title: Never
• DeArdo’s breakdown: Despite last year’s losing record, the Bengals have a relatively good chance of winning their first title in 2026. A big reason why is the trio of quarterback Joe Burrow and receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Specifically, Cincinnati’s championship odds are significantly higher if Burrow stays healthy. During his three healthy seasons in Cincinnati, Burrow led the Bengals to a Super Bowl and two AFC Championship Games while also winning a passing title and leading the league in touchdown passes.

3. Bears

• Last title: 1985 (Super Bowl XX)
• DeArdo’s breakdown: Chicago is coming off a surprisingly successful 2025 season that included the franchise’s first playoff win since 2010. The Bears didn’t make many splashy offseason moves, but they did revamp their secondary with the additions of veterans Coby Bryant and Cam Lewis and rookies Dillon Thieneman and Malik Muhammad. The two main questions facing the Bears are whether Caleb Williams can take the next step following his impressive 2025 season and whether they can once again emerge from the NFL’s most competitive division relatively unscathed.

If you want to know who basically has zero shot to end their long Super Bowl drought, you can check out DeArdo’s full list here.

3. Minicamp overreactions: Is Kyler Murray going to lose the Vikings QB competition? 

Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that’s especially true when we’re talking about the NFL. With that in mind, Tyler Sullivan decided to take a look at several things that happened during minicamp last week to decide if we’re all overreacting. 

Statement: Kyler Murray losing edge in QB competition

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Since Murray arrived following his release from the Cardinals, he’s been viewed as having the inside track at the starting job over McCarthy, who struggled mightily in 2025. However, alarm bells began ringing after last Tuesday’s minicamp session. 

As noted by ESPN, Murray got the first crack at 7-on-7 reps and threw interceptions on his first two passes. He also said one of the more difficult aspects of adjusting to Minnesota’s offense has been splitting reps amid this competition. While the Vikings would probably like to see Murray hit the ground running, 

I don’t think this rises to the level of him losing much ground in this battle with McCarthy. As Murray noted, he’s not only in the early stages of learning the offense, but he’s also getting just a slice of the reps, which creates an even steeper uphill climb.

Statement: Colts made a mistake extending Alec Pierce

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

The 26-year-old inked a four-year, $114 million contract but is now recovering from left ankle surgery he underwent earlier this offseason. Pierce, who is not participating in minicamp, noted that the recovery timeline can range from four to six months, which means he could be sidelined well into training camp and possibly miss the preseason. 

Sure, having Pierce locked and loaded throughout the summer would be ideal for the Colts, especially after trading Michael Pittman Jr. to the Steelers this offseason. If this procedure has him firing on all cylinders by the regular season, this will be just a blip on the radar.

Statement: Brian Thomas Jr. primed for a bounce-back season

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Brian Thomas Jr. was sensational during his rookie season, topping 1,200 yards to go along with 10 touchdowns. He then endured a sophomore slump, logging 48 catches for 707 yards and two touchdowns in 14 games. However, the former first-round pick may be primed for a bounce-back season in 2026 that reminds folks of his top-tier status. 

During the early stages of minicamp, Thomas has impressed, beating Jacksonville’s stable of corners and connecting with Trevor Lawrence on a number of deep balls. Thomas is just 23 years old and oozes talent. The LSU product admittedly had a down year, but you certainly can’t write him off. 

There are plenty more overreactions, and if you want to check those out, be sure to click here.

4. Under-the-radar breakout candidate from each NFC team

Last week, we closed things out by taking a look at some possible under-the-radar breakout candidates in the AFC, so today, we’re going to flip things around and do the NFC. These are players who could end up having a breakout year. 

Zach Pereles came up with a list of 16 players — one from each NFC team — and we’re going to check out four that made the cut (one from each division):

• Cowboys LB DeMarvion Overshown — The third-round pick from 2023 looked to be coming into his own and then some after missing all of his rookie year with a torn ACL. Then he suffered another brutal injury — torn ACL, MCL and PCL — near the end of 2024. He returned for six games last year. Perhaps the injuries have taken too much of a toll, but a year-plus removed from the injury, he can be the athletic, talented playmaker the Cowboys desperately need at linebacker.
• Bears WR Luther Burder III — Burden is speedy and shifty and, ultimately, uber-talented, as he showed as a sophomore at Missouri before a down junior season caused his draft stock to drop. With DJ Moore gone to Buffalo, Burden will see his role expand — and could see his numbers explode — in Year 2.
• Falcons S Xavier Watts — Watts is one of a few intriguing young talents on the defensive side of things for Atlanta. The 2025 third-round pick notched five interceptions, made 92 tackles and defended 11 passes, finishing fourth in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting.
• 49ers RG Dominick Puni — After an impressive 2024 debut — especially for a third-round rookie — Puni wasn’t quite as good in 2025, according to PFF, but he still only gave up one sack. He has started every game at left guard for Kyle Shanahan’s club since he arrived, which is no small feat considering how many 49ers have been injured recently. At his best, Puni is a physical mauler in the ground game who can really move people. If there’s a leap to be made in his pass protection in Year 3, he could ascend to one of the league’s more well-regarded interior linemen.

If you want to see Pereles’ full list of under-the-radar players in the NFC, we’ve got that here. 

5. NFC South win totals: Saints might be a surprise team in 2026

Over the past two weeks, we’ve been taking a look at win totals from around the NFL, and so far, we’ve made it through six of the eight divisions. We only have two divisions left — the NFC West and NFC South — and today, we’ll be tackling the NFC South. Jordan Dajani is once again back to give us his best over/under bets for each team in the division. 

Let’s check out his thoughts on the Saints and Buccaneers: 

New Orleans Saints

• Odds: Over 7.5 (-115) / Under 7.5 (-105)

Dajani’s take: The Saints are a huge question mark. On one hand, Tyler Shough was the most impressive rookie quarterback in the NFL, and New Orleans upgraded his weaponry with Travis Etienne and first-round pick Jordyn Tyson. Chris Olave is also coming off a career year. The Saints have the benefit of playing the second-easiest schedule in the NFL this season, behind only the Browns. I’m going to lean toward the over for New Orleans, but a few things will have to change in 2026. The Saints can’t rank last in the NFL in red-zone TD percentage (44.4%) again and have to score more than 18 points per game.

Dajani’s lean: Over 7.5 (-115)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Odds: Over 8.5 (+100) / Under 8.5 (-120)

Dajani’s take: There’s a reality where the Buccaneers shake off what happened in 2025 and take their rightful place atop the NFC South once again, or there’s a legitimate changing of the guard that will become clear in the coming months. The Buccaneers defense hasn’t finished in the top half of the league in three straight years now, and they lost legendary linebacker Lavonte David and cornerback Jamel Dean. I’m not exactly bullish on the Bucs entering 2026, and I find it fascinating that Vegas isn’t either. Tampa Bay is plus money to finish with a winning record!

Dajani’s lean: Under 8.5 (-120)

If you want to see how Dajani feels about the Falcons and Panthers, you can get his take on those two teams here. 

6. Extra points: Andy Reid addresses Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce wedding 

It’s been a busy few days in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything, I put together a quick roundup for you.

• Wedding planning hasn’t been a distraction for Travis Kelce. The Chiefs‘ star tight end is set to get married to Taylor Swift this summer, with the nuptials rumored to be happening on July 3. Andy Reid was asked if planning the wedding has turned into a distraction for Kelce, and well, the answer seems to be no. “He’s been here most of the offseason, if not the whole offseason. He’s been around,” Reid said. “It’s good to have him here. He did the mandatory camp and did a nice job there, so good to have him back in and rolling. He’s very excited. You see no distractions with that and the wedding.” You can check out Reid’s full comments here. 
• Louisville Kings win UFL title. In their first season of existence, the Kings ended up winning it all, but it definitely wasn’t easy. In a game against the DC Defenders that was played on DC’s home field, the Kings trailed 16-7 at halftime before battling back for a 27-20 victory. Defenders QB Jason Bean was knocked out of the game with an injury in the third quarter and Louisville took over after that. The Kings are coached by Chris Redman, who actually won a Super Bowl with the Ravens in 2000 during his rookie year in the NFL. 
• Stefon Diggs won’t face NFL punishment. Back in May, the free agent receiver was found not guilty of assaulting his private chef. Not only has he been legally cleared in that situation, but he also won’t face NFL punishment. After looking into the situation, the league found that there was insufficient evidence to support a suspension for violating the personal conduct policy. The decision from the NFL will likely open the door for Diggs to sign a deal at some point in the near future. 
• Joe Tippmann gets massive extension from Jets. The Jets just handed out a huge extension to Tippmann, who has agreed to terms on a four-year, $66.4 million deal, per ESPN. Tippmann was a second-round pick in 2023 and thrown into the starting lineup almost immediately. In three seasons with the Jets, he’s started 48 games. The new deal means that the starting guard is now under contract through the 2030 season.