As we all know, the Major League Baseball season is 162 games. Sixty-five of those games equals roughly 40% of the season and all 30 teams right now are in the vicinity of 65 games played. As such, it’s safe to say we’ve seen just about 40% of the 2026 season and that isn’t a small sample.
Glancing around the league, we certainly have a good idea which teams are legitimate contenders and which look like non-contenders here for the long haul. If we look at the actual logistics of the situation, though, it’s awfully difficult to find more than a handful of teams that are definitely not contenders.
Take last season, for example. The Guardians were down 15 ½ games in the AL Central in July and won that division. That’s an extreme example, obviously, and we can’t always count on extreme. We have other examples of teams coming back that weren’t extreme, though.
- The Brewers were 6 ½ games out on June 17 and won the NL Central by five games.
- The Blue Jays were as many as eight games back in the AL East early, and by their 65th game, were still 4 ½ games out. They won the division.
- The Mariners were seven games out in the AL West on July 10 and won it by three games.
- The Reds were six games out of a wild-card spot on Sept. 5 and still made the playoffs.
We could keep going. Comebacks like this happen every year, especially nowadays with 12 of our 30 teams making the postseason.
A cursory glance at the standings now, after establishing how seemingly easy it is for teams to come back from six or seven games out to make the playoffs, says that almost everyone is still a contender.
Consider where things stand with some of these either greatly disappointing or just sub-par — or even bad — teams.
- The Mets are five games out of a playoff spot.
- The Reds have lost four straight and have fallen to a season-worst two games under .500. They are still just 2 ½ games out of a playoff spot.
- The Royals and Tigers have both been awful and are 12 games under .500. They aren’t that far out, though. They are tied at 27-39 and the only team below them on the American League side is the Angels. And yet, they are both only 5 ½ games out of a wild card.
- The Rangers are a game under .500 and generally haven’t looked very good for much of the season. They are holding down the last AL wild-card spot.
- Few teams have been more disappointing than the Red Sox. They are four games out.
- Do the Nationals feel like a playoff contender to you? They are within 1 ½ games. How about the Twins? They are three out.
- The Cubs have lost 20 of 27 and are only a half-game out of the last wild card.
There are only three teams in all of baseball farther out of a playoff spot than 5 ½ games: the Angels (7 ½ out), Giants (7 ½) and Rockies (10 ½).
As far as I’m concerned, that still means we’ve got 27 teams with a realistic chance of winning the World Series here in 2026. Not too bad for a sport that is supposedly so unfair due to the lack of a salary cap, huh? And, sure, there are plenty of teams technically within shouting distance of the playoffs that I would say have basically no real shot to win it all, but I’m not gonna tell their fans to avoid hope. Our old, good friend Red once learned from Andy that hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.
Biggest Movers
|
Rk |
Teams |
Chg |
Rcrd |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
|
The Braves are now on pace to win 110 games. This is a storied franchise with a ton of good history and they’ve never won more than 106 in a season (1998). | — | 45-21 |
2 |
|
The rich get richer, as the Dodgers appear to have fixed Roki Sasaki. He has a 2.55 ERA in his last six starts. In his last four, it’s 1.48 and he’s struck out 29 in 24 ⅓ innings in there. Last time out, he struck out a career high of 10. | — | 42-24 |
3 |
|
Jackson Chourio has enough talent to be an MVP contender at some point, so any time he starts to get hot, watch out. In his last nine games, he’s 13 for 37 (.351) with four doubles and three home runs. | — | 40-23 |
4 |
|
Cristopher Sánchez’s scoreless innings streak is over, but he became the fifth pitcher ever to get to 50. Two of those happened in the 1910s and another came in “The Year of the Pitcher,” 1968. And he still only allowed one run. Since the start of May, he has a 0.20 ERA in 46 innings. | 3 | 35-30 |
5 |
|
Cade Smith leads the majors with 21 saves, putting him on pace to get to 50. This franchise has seen plenty of prolific save men, but the single-season record is 47 (Emmanuel Clase, 2024). | 1 | 37-30 |
6 |
|
The Aaron Judge injury obviously hurts significantly. Two of the players who could help pick up the slack are Trent Grisham and Jazz Chisholm Jr. Grisham in his last 15 games is 21 for 56 (.375) with five doubles and two homers. Chisholm in his last 19 games is 22 for 72 (.306) with four doubles, a triple and four home runs. | 2 | 38-26 |
7 |
|
The Rays have now dropped 10 of their last 13 games. | 2 | 37-25 |
8 |
|
That’s four straight wins and it sure seems like they aren’t going anywhere. | 5 | 35-28 |
9 |
|
The Andrés Muñoz problem really needs to be dealt with. He’s blown four of his seven save chances since the beginning of May. His ERA is up to 5.40. Stuff like this can be mental, so maybe he needs a break from closing. They have to try something. | 1 | 34-32 |
10 |
|
Sorry to set an arbitrary endpoint, but since the Pirates started 16-11, they’ve gone 18-21. The sample of them being mediocre has overtaken the sample of them being good. | 2 | 34-32 |
11 |
|
The White Sox are 20-11 at home this season and this week host the Braves and Dodgers. Buckle up! This will be a great test for the upstart contenders. | 2 | 34-31 |
12 |
|
Louis Varland is an absolute machine. He’s now appeared in 31 games and has a 0.26 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. | 5 | 32-34 |
13 |
|
Jacob deGrom garnered wins 100 and 101 last week, which got me thinking: Has there ever been a pitcher cost so many wins by his teammates? Remember, in 2018, he had a 1.70 ERA in 217 innings across 32 starts and only won 10 games. In 2019, he had a 2.43 ERA in 204 innings in 32 starts and only won 11. I bet we could find him something like 30 extrawins over the course of his career with even decent run support and/or bullpen help. As things stand, he’s 101-69 with 91 no decisions and a career 2.61 ERA. | 7 | 32-33 |
14 |
|
Only the Dodgers, Yankees and Braves have a higher team slugging percentage than the Nats. Who would’ve figured that heading into the season? | 2 | 33-33 |
15 |
|
This is quite a pronounced split: The D-backs are 10-23 against teams .500 or better and 24-8 against sub-.500 teams. | 4 | 34-31 |
16 |
|
They’ve dropped 11 of their last 13 games. | 4 | 33-31 |
17 |
|
The Cubs suffered yet another starting pitcher injury on Sunday night with Jameson Taillon, but Javier Assad came to the rescue in a big way. Of course, the offense can’t help but continue to leave far too many runners on base. This is a death spiral. | 2 | 34-32 |
18 |
|
The O’s had actually gotten moderately hot and climbed right into the thick of the playoff race. They won 10 of 14 before losing on Saturday and Sunday. The upcoming schedule is really tough (vs. SEA, vs. SD, at SEA, at LAD), so let’s see their mettle. | — | 31-35 |
19 |
|
Otto Lopez just continues to churn out the hits. He had two more on Sunday, moving him to an MLB-best 86 on the season. His pace is 211 hits for the season. That’s up there, especially in this era, but the Marlins record is 221 (Juan Pierre, 2004). | 5 | 31-35 |
20 |
|
Remember when Matt McLain showed great offensive promise as a rookie in 2023? He’s still only 26 years old and that proverbial switch could be flipped at any moment. Maybe it was over the weekend? He homered three times in two games. | 6 | 31-33 |
21 |
|
Mildly interesting tidbit: The Astros are 8-1 in Spencer Arrighetti starts and 22-36 with anyone else. | 2 | 30-37 |
22 |
|
Nick Kurtz has four homers in his last nine games. Remember, it was late May last year when he started to get scorching hot — hitting 35 homers from May 20 through the end of the season (94 games). | 1 | 31-34 |
23 |
|
Through May 2, rookie Carson Benge was hitting .179/.235/.263, but he’s been pretty hot ever since. He now sits at .265/.325/.408. | 1 | 29-36 |
24 |
|
What’s this? A pulse?!? The Tigers are 5-1 in June and Tarik Skubal is on a rehab assignment. | 5 | 27-39 |
25 |
|
Vinnie Pasquantino might be waking up from his early season slump. In his last 10 games, he’s 13 for 40 (.325) with three doubles and a home run. | 3 | 27-39 |
26 |
|
After being an end-of-bench guy for the Tigers and Phillies for four seasons, Kody Clemens at age 30 has really found a home here. In 166 games since joining the Twins, he has 25 doubles, six triples and 27 home runs. | 3 | 30-37 |
27 |
|
Here’s an illustration of the Red Sox front office making mistakes. Brayan Bello’s numbers overall are awful. But in four different outings, the Red Sox used an opener before he took. In those four appearances, he threw more than 25 innings and has a 1.42 ERA. His first-inning ERA is 16.88. Clearly, it works to start someone else and bring him in for the second inning. Yet the Red Sox have twice tried to go back to starting him and both times he’s melted down in the first inning. Now he’s been demoted. | 2 | 27-36 |
28 |
|
How about Casey Schmitt powering up? Entering the season, he had 23 home runs in 672 at-bats in his career. He’s got 15 homers in 231 at-bats this season and has earned an everyday job in the leadoff spot. | 1 | 27-39 |
29 |
|
After winning two straight series, the Rockies got back to their losing ways and are now on pace to lose 103 games. Of course, that would be a 16-game improvement from last year. | 1 | 24-42 |
30 |
|
Spots 6-9 in the Angels’ lineup on Sunday went 13 for 15 with 10 runs and 10 RBI. Holy smokes. | 4 | 25-41 |
