The AFC Championship has been decided by the AFC West for the last eight years. The surprise with 2025 was that it featured the Denver Broncos instead of the Kansas City Chiefs. Bo Nix and company claimed the division with a 14-3 record, while the Chiefs went 6-11 and missed the playoffs entirely. It was the worst season of the Andy Reid era. Was it an unfortunate blip in the dynasty, or a sign of things to come?
The Los Angeles Chargers, on the other hand, registered their second-straight 11-win season for the first time since the LaDainian Tomlinson era, but the banged-up offensive line allowed a franchise-record 60 sacks. Justin Herbert is now 0-3 in the postseason, while the Las Vegas Raiders are still searching for some stability. This offseason may have been the one to finally get them on track.
Now that the full 2026 NFL schedule is here, let’s dissect the 2026 win totals for each AFC West team, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Denver Broncos: Over/Under 9.5 (Over -115, Under -105)
Part of me feels like the NFL world is consistently down on the Broncos. They objectively have a top-five defense, then Bo Nix is the first quarterback to win double-digit games and record 30 total touchdowns in his first two NFL seasons. Literally never been done before. Nix ranks top three all-time in QB wins (24), total touchdowns (64) and passing touchdowns (54) in a quarterback’s first two seasons.
Some would argue that the Broncos are bound for regression, since they registered an NFL-record 12 comeback wins in 2025, but my argument is that they wouldn’t need to come back against lesser opponents if they just played consistently on offense. Sean Payton stepped down as the offensive play-caller for Davis Webb, and Jaylen Waddle is now in the fold as WR1. Denver would have made the Super Bowl if Nix hadn’t injured his ankle in the divisional round. I’m not bold enough to say this is their year, but the Broncos win 10 games in 2026.
Verdict: Over 9.5
Kansas City Chiefs: Over/Under 10.5 (Over +115, Under -140)
The Chiefs went from three straight Super Bowl appearances and seven straight AFC Championship appearances to missing the playoffs completely at 6-11. Who saw that coming?
Patrick Mahomes‘ offense ranked No. 20 in yards per game (320.6) and No. 21 in points per game (21.3), while the Chiefs’ defense ranked in the top 10 in both categories. Over the last three seasons, Mahomes has averaged nearly 50 fewer passing yards per game than in his first five NFL seasons as a full-time starter. Kansas City splurged on the reigning Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III, which they hope will spark the offense in more ways than one. It’s been a minute since the Chiefs had a top running back.
Believe it or not, Kansas City exceeded its preseason win total in 10 of 13 seasons with Andy Reid. Reid has not gone below his preseason win total in back-to-back seasons since 2012, when he was with the Philadelphia Eagles. History indicates that Over at plus money is a solid bet.
Verdict: Over 10.5
Las Vegas Raiders: Over/Under 5.5 (Over -145, Under +120)
When you look at what the Raiders accomplished, they certainly got better. Tyler Linderbaum broke financial records at the center position, Georgia linebackers Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker reunited, and the quarterback room is improved with Kirk Cousins and Fernando Mendoza. We know that real contenders are built through the draft, and the Raiders’ class looks fantastic on paper. Second-round pick Treydan Stukes was college football’s top slot corner in 2025, third-round pick Trey Zuhn III could start on the offensive line immediately if needed, and the Raiders scored steals in the fourth round with cornerback Jermod McCoy and running back Mike Washington Jr.
Despite the offseason wins, there are still reasons to be pessimistic about the Raiders. I’m low on Mendoza’s wide receiving corps, and the defense has to prove it can keep up with the loaded AFC West. If I’m relatively high on this division as a whole in 2026, that means the worst team in the group could struggle to reach 6-10. Especially when that team is playing a top-seven toughest schedule like the Raiders are.
Verdict: Under 5.5
Los Angeles Chargers: Over/Under 9.5 (Over -130, Under +110)
The Chargers are coming off a wildly embarrassing playoff loss. Yes, maybe even more embarrassing than blowing a 27-0 lead to the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2023. Seriously, Justin Herbert looked like he didn’t even belong, and the offensive line couldn’t block anything. However, there’s a new offensive mind in town with Mike McDaniel.
I understand fans being high on the Chargers in 2026, but their schedule scares me. Check out this wild seven-game stretch from Weeks 3-10:
So, that’s five teams that won playoff games last season, with the other two opponents having MVP quarterbacks in Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. In fact, during this stretch, the Chargers will face the last four NFL MVPs and play three of the four conference championship teams from last year.
While the Chargers appear to have one of the toughest schedules in the NFL, I’ll take them to win exactly 10 games. I’m putting a lot of faith in McDaniel to set up explosive plays.
Verdict: Over 9.5
