TORONTO — Canada’s oil-rich province of Alberta will hold a referendum in October on leaving Canada, but the province’s premier said Thursday it won’t actually be a vote on whether to separate.
Danielle Smith said voters instead would be deciding whether it’s time to hold a referendum on quitting Canada.
“I want to be clear. I support Alberta remaining in Canada, and this is how I would vote on separation in a provincial referendum. It is also the position of my government,” Smith said in televised remarks.
The question will ask whether Alberta should stay in Canada or take legal steps under the Constitution to hold a binding referendum on leaving.
Ian Brodie, a former chief of staff to ex-Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper and a now a political science professor at the University of Calgary, said Smith appears to be proceeding very carefully.
“A vote to see if people even want a vote. It’s a good way to let the swing voters swing against separation,” Brodie said.
A “yes” vote in a binding referendum still would not trigger independence. Negotiations with the federal government would have to take place. A 1998 Supreme Court ruling means provinces cannot secede unilaterally from Canada.
Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal, noted Smith has publicly opposed independence so some people have compared her stance to the one of Britain’s then-Prime Minister David Cameron ahead of the Brexit referendum, which he embraced as a way to manage a vocal faction of his ruling party while not wanting the U.K. to leave the European Union.
“Politically Smith seems committed to do so to appease supporters of her own party who want a referendum. If she doesn’t follow suit, she might face a potentially perilous mutiny within her partisan ranks,” Béland said.
Earlier Thursday, three members of Smith’s United Conservative Party of Alberta caucus passed a motion in committee asking her and her cabinet to put the issue to a referendum on Oct. 19.
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s federal Liberal government has been working with Smith to get an oil pipeline to the Pacific coast built to make many Albertans happy.
“Canada’s government strongly believes that the interests of Albertans and all Canadians are best served when we work together,” Dominic LeBlanc, the federal minister of Intergovernmental Affairs, posted on social media.
Béland said Smith’s question is framed in such a way that some voters could vote in favor of an independence referendum to send a message to the federal government and the rest of Canada without actually taking the risk of voting directly for independence.
“It might lower the apparent stakes, making it perhaps easier for some voters to think they can send a political message to the rest of the country without taking the risk of leading the province to the point of no return,” he said.
Béland said a possible future referendum is likely to lose as support for separation is slightly less than 30% but said campaigns do matter.
Opposition Federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre earlier said he and all Conservative members of Parliament would press for Alberta to remain part of Canada in a referendum campaign.
Smith said a judge made an error last week when she ruled a citizen led petition designed to force a referendum was unconstitutional.
“In her address, Smith explained that a recent court ruling makes such a binding reference impossible for now, which justifies the new question,” Béland said.
