NBA playoffs: What league insiders are watching in Spurs-Thunder

Hype for the NBA’s Western Conference finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs has come from across the league.

“This is the Finals,” a West assistant coach told ESPN.

“This has a chance to go down as one of the best series of the past decade,” an Eastern Conference executive said.

“This is the start of [another] Magic vs. Bird,” a West scout said.

Yes, Spurs-Thunder, a collision course of the league’s two best teams that’s felt months in the making, is here.

These two teams have stood atop the league for most of the season. They have two of the top three candidates for Most Valuable Player — Thunder guard and back-to-back winner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Spurs center Victor Wembanyama, who seems ready to assume his place as the sport’s dominant force as soon as next week.

Both stars have dynamic talents surrounding them — Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren for the Thunder; De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle for the Spurs — not to mention other players emerging into starring roles in these playoffs, such as Ajay Mitchell for OKC and Dylan Harper for San Antonio.

It’s a series that should have it all. And, to properly prepare, we talked to 10 league insiders — a sampling of coaches, scouts and executives — to take you inside the matchups to watch in Monday’s Game 1 (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock) and beyond. (Of those 10, eight picked Oklahoma City to win the series.)

1. How will San Antonio’s guards handle Oklahoma City’s pressure?

For all the understandable attention paid to Wembanyama, this was the topic most frequently mentioned throughout conversations over the weekend. And for good reason, as San Antonio’s De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper will see waves of All-Defense-caliber pressure from Luguentz Dort. And Alex Caruso. And Cason Wallace.

“How do they combat it?” a West assistant coach said. “Can they handle the 48 minutes of that suffocating defense?”

Throughout their run, the Thunder have thrived on winning the possession game. They rarely turn the ball over, thanks to Gilgeous-Alexander’s brilliance, and they also turn their opponents over in bunches. Creating turnovers will also prevent the Spurs from sitting back in a set defense and allowing perhaps the most feared defender in NBA history a chance to impact every single possession.

“No matter what your roster is, you have to take care of the ball [against Oklahoma City], because if you don’t it’s automatic points,” the assistant coach said. “If the Spurs can set their defense with the personnel and coaching they have, they can guard OKC. But they can’t guard them if they are turning the ball over. That’s a huge piece of the puzzle and that’s the first thing I’m looking for.”

Perhaps most impressive about San Antonio’s ascension is the development of Castle and Harper, even from series to series. But the Portland Trail Blazers and Minnesota Timberwolves defenses didn’t feature this level of versatility.

“Harper has been awesome, but OKC is a whole different beast. Against most teams, including Portland and Minnesota, there’s an ability to get switched into a favorable matchup,” a West executive said.

“There’s nobody to target on Oklahoma City.”

2. How can the Thunder limit Wembanyama’s defensive impact?

One East assistant coach might have summed it best: “Shai is f—ing good, but he ain’t a cheat code.”

On one side of these West finals is Gilgeous-Alexander, who averaged 31.4 points per game and whose 55.3% shooting just shattered the NBA single-season record for a guard averaging 30 points.

On the other side is the aforementioned 7-foot-5 cheat code.

“What does OKC do to score around Victor’s defense? To me, that’s the biggest question of the series,” a West scout said.

“Watching Minnesota in the last series, seeing guys not even thinking about getting a shot up and looking to pass before they even jump, it’s a testament to his greatness … it goes against every instinct you have as a player.”

How can the Thunder limit Wemby’s effectiveness? Two East executives shared how OKC could make things tougher on Wembanyama:

“Make Wemby guard on the perimeter and in transition. If the game slows down, he’s too effective. You have to run him and put him in actions over and over.”

“Get into his body with screening and post ups and neutralize his ability to be a help defender.”

There’s also the game within the game. Can Isaiah Hartenstein, a critical player for Oklahoma City across the past two seasons, stay on the court when Wembanyama is out there, or will he eventually be reduced to a smaller role?

And, if he is, what will happen when the Thunder want to go small — something they’ve often turned to when their backs are against the wall in the past to only further amplify their ability to create havoc and turnovers?

“I will be curious to see if the Spurs can get those bigs in foul trouble,” said an Eastern Conference scout. “That could be a major factor for them.

“In years’ past, when the Thunder want to bring a curveball to the series, they go small, and that will not work.”

3. How will the Thunder deploy Chet Holmgren defensively?

Another strategic point to watch is what Oklahoma City does with Holmgren, who finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting to Wembanyama and is the anchor of what was the league’s best defense each of the past two seasons. “Chet is really good. He’s the second-best defensive player in the league,” a West assistant coach said.

Much of the Thunder’s game plan, however, involves Holmgren’s ability to play as a roving power forward next to either Hartenstein or Jaylin Williams, in addition to also being able to deploy him as a floor-spacer. That level of versatility will likely depend on whether Hartenstein and Williams are capable of staying on the court when Wembanyama is out there.

“I just think the way the Spurs are playing, because they play four guys who can make a shot, Chet can’t just roam around and help the way he wants to,” another West assistant coach said.

“So they’ll be able to have that player play basketball. I’d expect them to start Chet on Castle, and dare him to make shots. But now by doing that you’ve taken away your complete ball pressure.”

Oklahoma City has shown a willingness to change lineups and adjust to their opponents. In Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Finals, OKC went small, benching Hartenstein — only to eventually go back to him starting in Game 4.

“Will the Spurs be able to guard the Thunder 1-on-1 with the ball, and will the Thunder be able to guard Wemby one-on-one with the ball? That will be huge. Whoever does that better will win,” an East scout said.

“I would try to start with Hartenstein, and end with Chet, and they’ll be trying around with guys B, C, and D and see who can get into [Wembanyama’s] body and be super physical and push him out to the perimeter, and they have three outstanding guys to do that with in Dort, Caruso and Jalen Williams.”

So, while how Oklahoma City chooses to start games will matter, it will also be interesting to see where the Thunder choose to have Holmgren playing defense to start the game. Will they put him on Wembanyama? On Castle? Or perhaps 3-and-D wing Julian Champagnie?

“I would start Shai on Castle and Chet on Champagnie to start, because you’re not finishing games with Hartenstein most likely,” another East scout said. “And then have Chet guard Victor at the end.”

4. Can the Spurs hit enough shots?

The biggest swing point in this series will be the 3-point shooting on both sides — and, in particular, for San Antonio, which was 4 percentage points better than Oklahoma City from distance in the four victories the Spurs had against their rivals this season.

“I can guarantee you the Thunder will dare them to hit shots from the outside,” an East scout said.

Oklahoma City would love to be able to blitz Wembanyama as much as possible. But doing so will potentially leave guys such as Fox, Harper and Castle — all streaky shooters — open to knock down perimeter jumpers. If they can, it will potentially scramble the Thunder’s plans.

“OKC is going to squeeze, grab and hold and make your perimeter scorers make plays,” the West scout said. “If they can make enough shots to avoid OKC loading up in the middle and forcing Victor into jump shooting, that’s big for them.”

In turn, expect lots of corner 3-pointers for San Antonio in this series. Per ESPN Research, this is the third playoff series since 2010 where the team that shot the most corner 3s (San Antonio) is facing the team that allowed the most (Oklahoma City). In the prior two series — when the Dallas Mavericks beat the Thunder two years ago, and the Orlando Magic beat the Charlotte Bobcats in 2010 — the team that shot the most corner 3s won.

“If you put any non-shooters out there,” a West assistant coach said, “the ball will just keep ending up [in the corner] because OKC is so good at being in two places at once.”

5. How much will depth and experience matter?

Before these playoffs, the only Spurs starter with postseason experience was Fox, who fell in the first round in 2023 with the Sacramento Kings.

There have been a lot of comparisons between this year’s Spurs team and the 1995 Orlando Magic, who were led by a dynamic young center (Shaquille O’Neal), a blossoming star guard (Penny Hardaway) and had never won a single playoff game before reaching the NBA Finals that year. The Spurs would love for the comparisons to end there — the Magic were swept by the Houston Rockets in the 1995 Finals — but this is easily going to be San Antonio’s biggest test yet.

“This is a chess match,” a West scout said. “Oklahoma City does the best job of highlighting a players’ limitations. They make any player uncomfortable. They will make San Antonio uncomfortable.”

When Oklahoma City last lost in the playoffs — two years ago to the Dallas Mavericks in the West semifinals — a young team lacked any real playoff experience against a battle-tested Mavericks team. (Spurs assistant Sean Sweeney ran the defense for those Mavericks, it’s worth pointing out.)

As this season has played out, Oklahoma City has talked about the lessons and confidence gained through that experience. The Thunder learned what many title teams now know: There seems to be no step-skipping on the path to an NBA title. The Spurs will have their hands full in their attempt to buck that trend.

“That Thunder team from two years ago is a JV team compared to this year,” a West assistant coach said. “It’s not even a comparison.”