NBA offseason intel: Predictions for summer of LeBron, Giannis, more stars

CHICAGO — The NBA playoffs are in full swing, with the New York Knicks and Oklahoma City Thunder having punched their tickets to the conference finals and the Cleveland Cavaliers and San Antonio Spurs having opportunities to join the league’s final four on Friday night.

But that hasn’t stopped the entire league from convening in the Windy City this week for the NBA draft combine, the league’s annual convention that serves as a clearing house not just for prospects hoping to begin their NBA careers by hearing their names called in Brooklyn next month at the draft, but also for the beginning of discussions about offseason moves — trades, free agency and the like — to take place.

That’s been no different this week, when plenty of topics have been buzzing around Wintrust Arena.

We dove into five of them, beginning with the league’s oldest player and where he could wind up, and for how much, this summer.

Jump to a section:
Executives predict LeBron’s next step
More 76ers questions after Morey’s exit
How the Clippers handle Kawhi’s future
Bucks want ‘clean break’ from Giannis?
Tricky negotiations for two Pistons stars

What will happen with LeBron James this summer?

Windhorst: A wise veteran league executive once told me that when it comes to paying veteran superstars, often “it’s not about the money, it’s about the money.”

It’s not so much about what the Lakers could pay the 41-year-old James if he decides to extend his career, it’s about what they should. And where strategy ends and respect, business and brand protection begin. To be clear, talk to people with the Los Angeles Lakers, in James’ camp and around the league and you’ll arrive at one conclusion:

There is no playbook for this situation.

The Lakers paid James $52 million this season, and he was an All-Star and probably would’ve made the All-NBA team if he had played five more games. His impact and leadership down the stretch were difference-making as the Lakers fought their way to home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs and then pulled an “upset” over the Houston Rockets.

“By our metrics, he remains a top-25 player in the league and if not for his age, we’d probably assess him at near max player level,” one Eastern Conference team strategist told ESPN.

“Our coaches would tell you he ranks even higher than that when his legs and back are feeling good.”

Yet it is highly unlikely any outside team would be willing to offer James such a contract. Signing him wouldn’t make sense for the teams with big cap space such as the Bulls or Nets. James also would probably have a very short list of preferred destinations — such as, hypothetically, the Golden State Warriors — that aren’t in position to have significant cap space this summer.

So do the Lakers, a team that needs to add to its roster around Luka Doncic, bid against themselves when making James an offer?

“I’d pay LeBron whatever he wants as long as it’s a one-year deal, no player option. Give him the no-trade clause,” an East executive said. “Everything [new Lakers owner Mark] Walter has done so far has been about good business.

“LeBron sells tickets. He keeps the [local] TV partner happy. Re-signing LeBron is good business.”

play

Stephen A.: Lakers should have elevated level of appreciation for LeBron

Stephen A. Smith weighs in on whether the Lakers have taken LeBron James for granted.

Bontemps: The “if not for his age” line from the strategist is a fairly important one, given James entered this season as the oldest player in the NBA and will turn 42 in September amid a presumed record-extending 24th season. The general sentiment from conversations during this week’s draft combine was that James will suit up for 2026-27.

Those facts, coupled with his still-elite performance, led multiple league insiders in Chicago to declare James deserves “as much money as he wants.”

But that’s before you get into the realistic business end of the discussion. The question instead comes down to whether James would accept a deal in the range of the midlevel exception, projected at just over $15 million for 2026-27, to play somewhere else?

“I think he should sign for whatever the best situation is for him,” an East executive said. “What does he want to do [money-wise], and where?”

The general opinion from conversations in Chicago pointed to James likely returning to the Lakers. “It’s just hard to fit him anywhere,” a West scout said.

What should the 76ers do this summer?

Bontemps: As the Philadelphia 76ers embark on their search for a new team president after firing Daryl Morey on Tuesday, the consensus from sources around the league is that no matter whom Bob Myers chooses to run basketball operations, there aren’t many levers to pull to significantly improve the team in the short term.

“Run it back, load-manage Joel [Embiid] as much as they can, be a playoff team and try to stay healthy,” a West executive said. “I think there’s stuff you can do on the margins.”

Tyrese Maxey and rookie VJ Edgecombe, who have already formed what one East executive called “arguably the most exciting backcourt in the entire league” aren’t going anywhere. That’s likely also the case for Embiid (owed roughly $190 million over the next three seasons) and Paul George ($110 million over the next two). It doesn’t make a lot of sense for Philadelphia to pay a heavy cost in assets to dump either veteran star now.

Windhorst: The league has quickly valued the Maxey-Edgecombe combo very highly, to the point that it seems like the future of the franchise is looked at through that prism rather than the expensive Embiid-George pairing. Several executives I talked to in the wake of Morey’s departure described how enticing that job opening is because of the two young guards. This was a mildly surprising take considering what Bontemps describes about the huge money due to Embiid and George and the almost guaranteed apron issues it’s going to bring over the next two years.

There was also this: The underlying reason the team traded young guard Jared McCain to Oklahoma City at the trade deadline was to dodge the luxury tax this season. Considering George had just been suspended for 25 games and the team was already underperforming, that wasn’t an unreasonable move, and the Sixers did get a future first-rounder back from the Thunder.

But it was the fourth consecutive season the team made midseason moves to dodge the tax, a trend that Embiid noted, on the record, to local media at the time.

The luxury tax element led Sixers owner Josh Harris to address it Thursday at an end-of-season news conference.

“The front office absolutely has the green light to go into luxury tax,” Harris said. “We’ve been in and out of luxury tax and so it’s not an issue. I mean, it’s just not an issue. We’re building an arena here. I can tell you that the amount of dollars you spend on that versus the luxury tax, it’s magnitudes more.”

With key wings Kelly Oubre Jr. and Quentin Grimes headed for unrestricted free agency, Philadelphia is in a challenging position to find improvement outside of hoping for better health.

play

Kawhi ‘not stressing’ NBA’s Aspiration probe

Kawhi Leonard believes he’s going to be in the clear from the NBA’s probe into his endorsement deal with Aspiration.

What should the Clippers do with Kawhi Leonard?

Windhorst: There are three basic options: extend, hold or trade. Leonard has one season at $50 million remaining on his contract and is coming off a likely All-NBA-worthy season. In a vacuum, a team would be looking to extend a player who averaged 28 points on 51% shooting and played in 65 games. If it didn’t feel good about extending that player — with Leonard’s lengthy injury history, that would be understandable — it would definitely look to trade him for maximum value.

“Every day you hear about what’s going to happen with Giannis [Antetokounmpo], but everyone ignores that Kawhi has been better and healthier over the last two seasons,” an East executive said. “If you had a chance to acquire one or the other, I might go Kawhi.”

But, of course, you can’t ignore Leonard and the LA Clippers being under investigation for possible salary cap circumvention. That leaves his short-term future somewhat up in the air.

“There’s no way they’re voiding his contract even if the league finds him guilty,” a West GM said. “That would be a reward, clearing the Clippers’ books for them.”

The way Leonard is playing, the Clippers might want him on their books.

“Them getting the No. 5 pick in the draft [via trade with the Indiana Pacers and some lottery fortune] is the piece of information they’ve been waiting for,” a West executive said. “At the very least, you’d expect them to have some fresh conversations to assess his [trade] value.”

Bontemps: The universal opinion from everyone I spoke to at the draft combine was that the Clippers should move forward with Leonard next season. Where there was some split was over whether they should give Leonard an extension or just see where 2026-27 takes the franchise.

“I would just play it out and not extend him,” a West scout said. “He clearly wants to be in Los Angeles, so I wouldn’t be in a rush to lock him in early.”

“I’d extend him,” an East scout said, “but it has to be on a deal that makes sense for the team, given his injury history.”

And where does Darius Garland fit? The point guard, whom the Clippers acquired for James Harden before February’s trade deadline, happens to play the same position as nearly all of the players in the mix for the fifth pick in June’s draft — Houston’s Kingston Flemings, Louisville’s Mikel Brown, Arkansas’ Darius Acuff and Illinois’ Keaton Wagler, among others, with the lone exception of Tennessee forward Nate Ament.

Will landing the fifth pick possibly change Garland’s future with LA, or would the Clippers pair two small guards together moving forward?

What will happen with Giannis?

Bontemps: In the wake of Milwaukee Bucks co-owner Jimmy Haslam’s comments at coach Taylor Jenkins’ introductory news conference earlier this month, it seems like the Giannis Antetokounmpo saga could finally get some clarity between now and the draft.

And, after years of “will they, won’t they,” the growing belief around the league is that this time an Antetokoumpo trade will actually happen.

“It just feels like they’re done with the circus, more than anything,” an East executive said. “They seem to want a clean break and to move on.”

Haslam’s timeline makes sense. The plan for Milwaukee needs to be either to go into the summer rebuilding the roster in the wake of an Antetokounmpo trade or to once again try to improve around its star forward if it does choose to keep him, as the belief is he will sign an extension if he’s on the Bucks when he’s eligible Oct 1.

Another thing to consider is how impending draft lottery reform will affect Antetokounmpo and other trade sagas.

The belief among teams in Chicago is that the NBA will approve the “3-2-1” lottery system later this month, which will give as many as 18 teams a realistic chance of winning the No. 1 pick with much more randomness throughout the system. It’s still unclear how that will impact star player trades, such as a potential Antetokounmpo deal, but it’s another wrinkle.

play

Shams: Bucks ‘fully open for business’ on trade offers for Giannis

Shams Charania reports that the Bucks are ready to field trade offers for Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Windhorst: Antetokounmpo has one year remaining on his contract plus a player option. In this situation throughout modern league history, a star player typically gets a hand in the trade process because it changes his value.

In 2018, Leonard, not working with the Spurs and going into the last year of his deal, fetched DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl and a protected first-rounder from the Toronto Raptors. Leonard won a title with the Raptors the next season and then left in free agency.

In 2019, Anthony Davis, with the New Orleans Pelicans somewhat begrudgingly following his wishes in trading him to the Lakers, was dealt for Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart and three first-round picks, then won a title the next season and re-signed with L.A. long term.

Both deals changed the balance of power in the league, and Antetokounmpo moving could as well. The Bucks and Antetokounmpo would both benefit by getting aligned. Haslam, in addition to making it clear a trade was absolutely possible, went to lengths to reiterate the team and Antetokounmpo are on good terms. If that is indeed the case, then this should be academic.

“If someone can get Giannis, they might win the offseason,” an East executive said. “For all the distractions and injuries over the last few years, he remains a top-five player in his prime, and those guys aren’t available often. That’s why this matters so much.”

Windhorst: Duren being benched for essentially the entire fourth quarter and overtime of the Detroit Pistons‘ most vital game of the season Wednesday against the Cavaliers was sobering.

Duren has stunningly been ineffective in the postseason as his scoring, rebounding and efficiency have plunged from what was a spectacular breakout regular season. He averaged 23 points and 11 rebounds on 68% shooting after the All-Star break. We did not see this coming.

Duren will be a restricted free agent on June 30. In the next two weeks, he might be named to the All-NBA team. That would make him supermax eligible, which means he could get up to five years and close to $300 million. This was always out of the question, to be clear. But after this playoff display, the Pistons have to be considering how much they do want to pay. Their talks with Duren about an extension last fall fizzled quickly.

With Cade Cunningham, already on a well-earned supermax contract, at $270 million over five years, this isn’t as much about playing hardball as it could be about protecting the upside of a roster loaded with other young players.

“He’s not a max player, but they’re probably going to have to give him the max,” an East executive said of Duren. “Because now [cap space] teams like Chicago or Brooklyn might see him as someone they could get with a max offer sheet and Detroit will have to match.

“With the new apron rules, it might come back to bite [the Pistons], and it’s just another example of how the CBA crushes team building.”

The Pistons’ books are flexible with Tobias Harris‘ $26 million expiring contract. But Harris has made a strong case to be re-signed. The Pistons, a weak 3-point shooting team, are compelled to keep sharpshooter Duncan Robinson, whose $15 million salary is currently nonguaranteed for next year.

“One of the biggest mistakes you can make in the NBA right now is to give a non-max player a max deal,” a West executive said. “In the old system, you could bet on high-end talent players. Now losing a big bet can derail your entire roster.”

Bontemps: While the Duren negotiations will be complicated, so will Thompson’s. He is a game-changing defender, as seen during his brilliant block on Donovan Mitchell in the closing seconds of regulation in Game 5.

However, Thompson has taken four 3-pointers total in these playoffs and missed them all, and he’s barely a 50% free throw shooter. That has caused coach J.B. Bickerstaff to go away from him in the closing minutes of some playoff games — just as he has with Duren.

Dyson Daniels and Christian Braun signed extensions averaging $25 million per year last fall — roughly 15% of the salary cap for next season. League insiders tapped that as a possible number for Thompson.