NFL execs predict 2027 offseason: QB carousel coming?

The NFL offseason rivals the regular season in pure theatrics.

This year’s turn played all the hits, from splashy moves to head-scratching team decisions. Maxx Crosby was on the Baltimore Ravens … for four days. Kyler Murray left the Arizona desert for the Minnesota tundra. The Rams channeled the “F them picks” mantra by trading a first-rounder for cornerback Trent McDuffie, then shocked the league by using their other first-rounder to select Alabama QB Ty Simpson.

Aaron Rodgers is stretching free agency into late May, cornering the market on 42-year-old quarterbacks still seeking employment. Mike Tomlin became a broadcaster. Mike McCarthy became a Steeler. A.J. Brown is sort of indefinitely a Philadelphia Eagle while also likely (definitely?) a New England Patriot. Each year, the possibilities feel limitless.

Now that free agency and the draft have passed, ESPN asked league personnel execs, coaches and scouts to forecast what we might be talking about during the 2027 offseason.

Next year promises to entertain, too — especially if high-level quarterbacks change jerseys.

Jump to a topic:
Cowboys-Pickens drama | Burrow’s future
QB draft class | Jalen Hurts
Steelers edge rushers | Contract jumps
Deshaun Watson | Jackson, Stroud situations

George Pickens’ future in Dallas comes into focus

A controversial Cowboys contract matter seems like a rite of passage each offseason, and Pickens’ 2027 outlook checks that box.

How Dallas handled this offseason with its star receiver only deepens the intrigue for next spring.

Cowboys chief operating officer Stephen Jones casually mentioned days before the draft that the team did not plan to negotiate with Pickens’ camp and expected him to play on the franchise tag, worth $27.3 million. And even though Dallas prioritized defense in the draft, it had an affinity for Arizona State receiver and eventual No. 8 pick Jordyn Tyson. Perhaps Tyson would have been tempting to Dallas had he fallen out of the top 10.

Word leaked hours before Round 1 that Pickens would be signing the tender, a move that seemed strategic from the player’s side. That Thursday evening, the team received an email from Pickens’ agents declaring those intentions. Then, Pickens waited six days to sign it. That gave Pickens additional time to gauge his trade market. He wants to be in Dallas, but he also wants a new deal.

Essentially, the Cowboys want to see more from Pickens — who came to Dallas with character concerns — before committing long-term dollars. But a receiver coming off a banner season with 93 catches for 1,429 yards and nine touchdowns rarely has to wait.

“Dallas is going to face a big decision because Pickens is set up to have another productive season and the receiver market has skyrocketed,” an executive with an NFL team said. “If they tag him again without the promise of a new deal, he could revolt.”

Using the franchise tag on Pickens in 2027 would cost Dallas $32.6 million, a relative bargain for a receiver of his talent. Seahawks receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba agreed to a four-year, $168 million deal with Seattle this offseason, setting the new high mark at the position, and the Rams’ Puka Nacua is eligible for an extension as well.

“I’m kind of surprised it didn’t get ugly this offseason. I understand the character stuff, but he produced at a ridiculous level last year,” the executive said. “If he does it again, then he can hold their feet to the fire a little more. And they still have to be willing to hold that franchise tag number on their [2027] books, which isn’t always easy.”

Bengals put questions of Joe Burrow’s future in Cincinnati to rest

Another missed playoff opportunity in Cincinnati could fuel discussion around Joe Burrow‘s long-term plans with the team, especially after Burrow’s soul-searching from the podium late last season became instant talk-show fodder. But Burrow has never firmly indicated he wants out of Cincinnati, and he clarified his comments about not having “fun” last season as unrelated to the team. Common sense prevails here in league circles: Burrow, who turns 30 in December, is one of the league’s elite passers, and no smart team would trade him, even if the player requested a move.

“I just don’t see them ever moving him,” an AFC executive said. “I think all of the posturing on his end was to make sure they were doing what they could to make the team better around him. He’s still too young and too good for them to move on.”

Either way, the Bengals sensed the urgency to build a winner around Burrow this offseason, acquiring significant defensive improvements in free agency and via trade. The move for defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence was the centerpiece. The offense returns all 11 starters from last year.

“If the Bengals have a good season, that will quiet the noise around Burrow,” an AFC scout said. “But even if they don’t, I think the talk is just noise.”

It is worth mentioning, just in case this year goes poorly, that Burrow’s contract is quite tradeable in 2027, saving $8.25 million on the cap.

Teams jockey for positioning in strong QB draft class

The league has a supply-and-demand issue with elite quarterback play. Nearly a dozen NFL teams are either in quarterback purgatory or need to see more from the passer they drafted recently, with varying degrees of optimism.

Weak quarterback classes in back-to-back drafts suppressed the market, creating a gulf between the haves and have-nots — and reminding us how rare the 2024 quarterback class really is. Four of the six first-round picks from that class (Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and Bo Nix) are solidified as full-time starters and possible Pro Bowl fixtures.

The 2027 class is promising. One NFL executive predicted at least three first-round QBs (cautioning that the games still need to play out). Marquee names will be available, from Texas’ Arch Manning to Oregon’s Dante Moore to South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, among many others.

“After the trade deadline [in early November 2026] is when things will really start to pivot,” an NFC executive said. “By then, you’ll have a feel for which quarterbacks will emerge as primary options atop the draft, and teams will understand where they are in their trajectory.”

In other words, teams out of contention will be tempted to look toward their April possibilities while trying to finish out a rough year on the field. Many of these prospects have questions. Sellers’ tools are elite, but he’s considered raw. Teams are trying to determine Moore’s ceiling. The sneaky riser is Notre Dame’s C.J. Carr. There’s excitement about his development in some league circles. A few executives consulted for this story are watching Pittsburgh — which has started seven quarterbacks since Ben Roethlisberger retired after the 2021 season — for a move up the draft board to capitalize on a quarterback class it has spent years studying.

Eagles will face a decision about Jalen Hurts’ future

This is a crucial year for the Eagles’ offense under Hurts, after their passing attack ranked in the bottom third of the league in back-to-back seasons.

The offense will feature more play-action and under-center work, which Hurts has hesitated to embrace at times in the past but has appeared very open to this offseason, according to sources. “As open as he’s ever been,” a source said.

Hurts has been throwing off site with multiple Eagles receivers, including his new No. 1, Devonta Smith — assuming A.J. Brown is traded as expected — and veteran Elijah Moore. Some NFL personnel evaluators still consider him a top-12 quarterback in the league. All of that won’t dim the spotlight placed on him this season — and the spotlight on the team’s next move if he struggles again.

“Hurts I could see,” said an AFC exec when asked whether Philly could look to move him this offseason if the offense struggles. “Polarizing player, and as his running ability starts to decline, his value will decline, too. And [Eagles general manager Howie Roseman] will always be proactive with finding solutions.”

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Hurts has $22 million in 2027 guarantees. The team would take a $2.9 million cap hit if he’s traded before June 1 but would save $21.4 million on that year’s cap if he’s dealt after June 1. “The guarantees make it like a Kyler Murray situation where Philly would have to pay to facilitate a trade,” another AFC executive said. The flip side: Hurts can force Philly’s hand on a new contract if he thrives. His current deal runs through the 2028 season.

“I think he’s going to play well,” an NFC personnel evaluator said. “He’s had so many different coordinators over the years that he’ll be able to adapt to the changes, and if the running game returns to form, [Hurts] throws it well over the top.”

Offensive line, running back among possible contract barriers cleared

The NFL saw contractual breakthroughs over the past calendar year. The pass-rusher market exploded from $34 million to $50 million per year in a matter of 14 months, something for which teams braced during the 2024 season. Center Tyler Linderbaum shattered all records for centers, earning a three-year, $81 million free agency deal with Las Vegas that topped the previous high mark by about 50%.

What’s the next position to explode in contract value a year from now? The answer is complicated. Executives agree that offensive tackle should be primed for a jump, with Washington’s Laremy Tunsil the only tackle earning above $30 million per year. But those same execs are not convinced that the jump will happen, because many of the premier players at the position are older and already well paid. Chicago’s Darnell Wright and Los Angeles’ Joe Alt are upcoming names to watch there.

More running backs will eventually join Saquon Barkley in the $20 million per year club, now that Detroit’s Jahmyr Gibbs and Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson are eligible for extensions. Detroit has already expressed interest in extending Gibbs.

One sneaky position to watch is tight end. Wide receivers make double what tight ends do despite the position’s increasing prominence. Detroit’s Sam LaPorta and Green Bay’s Tucker Kraft are eligible for extensions now, and they could push to be among the highest paid at the position (at least $19 million per year). Blocking tight ends now make $8 million per year in free agency. Expect that number to rise. Day 2 of the draft reminded us how starved offenses are for good blockers to feature in their two- and three-tight-end sets. And by the spring, Las Vegas’ Brock Bowers will be eligible for an extension.

Offensive guard is one to watch, too. That position is still underpaid relative to others, with the market set at a high of $24 million per year (Dallas’ Tyler Smith).

“[Tennessee’s] Peter Skoronski is a player I think will put up a bigger number than the casual fan would think,” an AFC executive said. “He’s a player that’s really good but not as well known because he’s in a smaller market on a bad team.”

The player most aligned with Linderbaum’s case actually plays a non-premium position: Detroit linebacker Jack Campbell, an All-Pro who did not receive a fifth-year option because of the cost ($21.9 million). The Ravens faced a similar dilemma with Linderbaum, a Pro Bowler whose option was also too steep. They ended up losing him to a ballooned market. Perhaps the same happens with Campbell, though Detroit wants to extend him.

Nick Herbig becomes the ‘He got what?’ guy in free agency

Pittsburgh’s No. 3 edge rusher produced 7.5 sacks in a part-time role last season, and plenty of teams would be glad to make him a full-time starter. Ascending pass rushers get paid. The Steelers want to keep Herbig but also have T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith on the books.

If Herbig makes it to free agency, he’ll be a player who’s not a household name but could be paid as one.

T.J. Watt becomes a trade candidate

To the point above: If the Steelers end up signing Herbig long term, having three large contracts allocated to one position is a tough proposition.

Watt, for all his greatness, turns 32 in October and has guaranteed salaries of $32 million in both 2026 and 2027.

Watt is a legacy player, something Pittsburgh values more than most. But some teams could see Pittsburgh at least considering moving on from him.

Deshaun Watson becomes quite the interesting free agent

Watson is a viable option to start for Cleveland this season if coach Todd Monken opts for veteran experience. The Browns made several improvements to the offense around the quarterback.

If Watson can regain his confidence and stay in the lineup, there might be a spot for him to start somewhere in 2027. The QB is 30 years old.

“The main thing is showing that he can stay healthy,” an AFC executive said.

Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti and general manager Eric DeCosta have been consistent in maintaining that they want Lamar Jackson as their long-term quarterback.

But if the past negotiation is any indication, Jackson is totally comfortable waiting things out. After prolonged contract negotiations entering the 2023 season, Jackson requested a trade before the sides eventually agreed on a five-year, $260 million deal.

Jackson is slated to be a free agent in March 2028 and has a clause in his contract that prevents the Ravens from placing the franchise tag on him. The quarterback market is slow at the moment, barring new developments with Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay or Stroud in Houston.

“Last time [in 2023] it seemed like talks were going nowhere and then a deal seemed to pop out suddenly,” said an NFC executive of Jackson. “This one has a chance to get really interesting again, especially if he has a big year and ups his leverage.”

The Texans have been wholly supportive of Stroud, who is eyeing a big fourth season.

But the team has decided to pay others first, including defensive stalwarts Will Anderson Jr. and Azeez Al-Shaair.

Whereas the Panthers appear content with Bryce Young, Stroud’s 2023 draft mate who is playing out the fourth year of his rookie contract without a new deal, Houston’s messaging hasn’t been as clear. The Texans have not tipped their hand, but some around the league are loosely expecting Stroud to also play out the fourth year of his rookie pact without an extension.