Warmer afternoon ahead with enough wind for more Red Flag Warnings for fire danger
Forecast focus about to shift from fire danger to much-needed rain and mountain snow
IT IS 515 AS WE GET GOING HERE ON THIS TUESDAY MORNING. WE HAVE ONE MORE DAY WITH THE WIND AND THE FIRE DANGER HERE. CONCERNS BEFORE WE TRANSITION LATER IN THE WEEK TO TALKING ABOUT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. CHANCES THAT ARE LOOKING PRETTY GOOD, PAIRED WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN. THAT STORM SHOULD BE GONE JUST IN TIME FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NOW, THERE IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN A WEATHER SYSTEM HERE INTO NORTHERN COLORADO, WYOMING INTO KANSAS WITH RAIN AND SNOW THAT’LL STAYS NORTH. BUT THAT STORM SYSTEM PROVIDES ONE THE INSTABILITY, BUT IS ALSO PAIRED WITH THIS DIP IN THE JET STREAM. WE’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’S WHAT WE’VE GOT. THE RED FLAG WARNINGS. THIS IS A CONDITION OF TEMPERATURE, HUMIDITY, WIND SPEED, AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AND THAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS KIND OF THE MOST IMPORTANT COMPONENT, BECAUSE ANY FIRE STARTS THAT WOULD OCCUR IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO COULD KIND OF SELF VENTILATE OR CREATE THEIR OWN WEATHER AND GROW RAPIDLY AND GET OUT OF CONTROL. SO LET’S MAKE SURE THERE ARE NO NEW FIRE STARTS IN THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT. PROBABLY RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT WE’RE WAKING UP TO THIS MORNING. A LOT OF SPOTS IN THE 30S AND 40S SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. STILL THOUGH, HOLDING IN THE 50S AND SOME SPOTS ABOVE 60 DEGREES TOMORROW, AT LEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PART OF THE STATE, WE COULD BE 1 OR 2 WARMER THAN TODAY. WE’RE DOWN A LITTLE BIT OUT EAST AND, YOU KNOW, LATE DAY SHOWER IN NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO CAN’T BE RULED OUT. BUT WEDNESDAY OVERALL IS LOOKING PRETTY WEATHER FRIENDLY. WIND GUSTS WILL COME IN LIGHTER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. WE COULD STILL GUSTS INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30, BUT I THINK FOR A LOT OF US, WEDNESDAY WILL GO DOWN AS THE NICEST DAY OF THE WEEK. THEN WE LOOK AHEAD TOWARDS THURSDAY. THING. TEMPERATURES GET TURNED DOWN. LOOK AT THE RAIN CHANCES STARTING TO GATHER STRENGTH HERE INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AND BY, I WOULD SAY THURSDAY EVENING, ALBUQUERQUE GETS IN ON THAT CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A WHOLE LOT MORE ON THE WAY FOR FRIDAY. NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO, FOUR CORNERS FORECAST. WELL, HERE WE ARE IN THE 60S TODAY, LOWER 70S TOMORROW, AND THEN THURSDAY. IT’S A DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S MAYBE LATE IN THE DAY. THURSDAY WE CATCH A SHOWER CHANCE. BUT MOST OF THAT STORM SYSTEM GOES DOWN HERE. NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES HIGH ENOUGH TO CONSIDER AN IMPACT WEATHER DAY. SO TOUGH TO GET IN THE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THAT WE DO. TREND DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND HERE, SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO SILVER CITY AT 73. LOOK AT THE LOW MID 80S OFF THE MOUNTAINS. WE’RE STILL DRY TOMORROW AND IN THE 70S THURSDAY I WOULD EXPECT INCREASING RAIN, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING. WE’LL GO INTO WEATHER IMPACT MODE WITH A HIGH RAIN. CHANCES THAT CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THEN THE WEEKEND DOES LOOK DRY, BUT SATURDAY STAYS COOL BEFORE SUNDAY HAS US BACK AT 70. SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO FIRE DANGER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY THIS. FORT SUMNER TO CARLSBAD. POINTS POINTS. EAST CORRIDOR WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO ABOUT 90 DEGREES. WE’LL DROP THE TEMPERATURE SOME ON WEDNESDAY, BUT KEEP IT DRY. THEN ON THURSDAY EVENING, THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH RAIN CHANCES, WEATHER IMPACT MODE. LOOK AT THAT. FRIDAY HIGH AT 53. PAIRED WITH THE RAIN. THE SNOW ON THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. BEFORE WE DRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND, NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO 60 AND 70 DEGREE HIGHS. REMEMBER, IT’S A RED FLAG WARNING DAY AGAIN HERE FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. CRITICALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. I DON’T THINK WE’LL HAVE ONE TOMORROW. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES LATER THURSDAY. WE GO INTO WEATHER IMPACT MODE WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES. RAIN MOUNTAIN SNOW FRIDAY WITH A HIGH OF 40 IN VEGAS, 57. SATURDAY ALMOST 70 AGAIN BY SUNDAY. NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO 60S AND 70S WILL BE AROUND 70 TOMORROW. THURSDAY. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES DURING THE EVENING. THAT’S WHEN WE GO INTO WEATHER IMPACT MODE. WE STAY THERE THROUGH THE DAY. FRIDAY. THAT’S A HIGH OF 47 WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW AROUND SATURDAY. COOL. SUNDAY MILDER FOR THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO, MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. TODAY. WE ONLY HIT 71 YESTERDAY, SO WE’RE BUMPING UP BY FIVE. THERE WILL BE AN AFTERNOON BREEZE OR TWO WARMER TOMORROW. THURSDAY EVENING 30% RAIN CHANCE. FRIDAY WEATHER IMPACT MODE WITH A 50% RAIN CHANCE. THIS IS NOT NECESSARILY A BAD THING. IT’S JUST TOUGH TO GET ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WITH THE SH
Warmer afternoon ahead with enough wind for more Red Flag Warnings for fire danger
Forecast focus about to shift from fire danger to much-needed rain and mountain snow
After a cool and quiet morning, we should see sunny or mostly sunny skies today paired with warmer afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s around the state. We do expect breezy to windy conditions to develop again this afternoon with the strongest winds along the southern and eastern half of the state with gusts 25-35 mph in these areas. There are Red Flag Warnings issued for much of southern and eastern New Mexico this afternoon and evening, so we need to make sure there are no new fire starts today.Wednesday looks less windy, and a couple degrees warmer which may have it going down as the best day of the week for most of us. Then the focus shifts to drawing moisture into the state and rain chances later Thursday and Thursday night. While Albuquerque only sees a 30% chance of scattered showers later in the day, southern and eastern New Mexico will see rain chances significantly ramp up Thursday afternoon and get into rain likely scenarios by Thursday night. Friday will be a rain and mountain snow likely day around the state with the potential for the heaviest rain event for quite some time, especially for southern and eastern New Mexico where the computer models are cranking out quarter to half inch+ rain totals. For the central, west and north forecast precipitation totals are coming in generally in the tenth to quarter inch range. There could be snow accumulation as well for the central and northern mountain ranges with several inches possible on the highest terrain. This storm is forecast to depart in time for the weekend with only a slight chance of a shower or sprinkles being possible on Saturday with a lingering chill in the air, but by Sunday temperatures should be warmer with dry skies expected.
After a cool and quiet morning, we should see sunny or mostly sunny skies today paired with warmer afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s around the state. We do expect breezy to windy conditions to develop again this afternoon with the strongest winds along the southern and eastern half of the state with gusts 25-35 mph in these areas. There are Red Flag Warnings issued for much of southern and eastern New Mexico this afternoon and evening, so we need to make sure there are no new fire starts today.
Wednesday looks less windy, and a couple degrees warmer which may have it going down as the best day of the week for most of us. Then the focus shifts to drawing moisture into the state and rain chances later Thursday and Thursday night. While Albuquerque only sees a 30% chance of scattered showers later in the day, southern and eastern New Mexico will see rain chances significantly ramp up Thursday afternoon and get into rain likely scenarios by Thursday night.
Friday will be a rain and mountain snow likely day around the state with the potential for the heaviest rain event for quite some time, especially for southern and eastern New Mexico where the computer models are cranking out quarter to half inch+ rain totals. For the central, west and north forecast precipitation totals are coming in generally in the tenth to quarter inch range. There could be snow accumulation as well for the central and northern mountain ranges with several inches possible on the highest terrain. This storm is forecast to depart in time for the weekend with only a slight chance of a shower or sprinkles being possible on Saturday with a lingering chill in the air, but by Sunday temperatures should be warmer with dry skies expected.
