In Major League Baseball, there have been just 54 occasions of a player hitting 50 home runs in a season, and no one has done it five times. Three-time AL MVP Aaron Judge has a shot to do to this season as the 2026 Major League Baseball campaign begins Wednesday night with Judge’s New York Yankees at the San Francisco Giants in a Netflix special with an 8:05 ET first pitch. It’s the first live MLB game on the streaming service.
It’s no shock that the Yankees have had the most 50-homer seasons from a player with 12, and Judge reached the magic milestone on Sept. 24 last season vs. the White Sox, finishing with 54 bombs. He joined Babe Ruth (1920, 1921, 1927 and 1928), Mark McGwire (1996, 1997, 1998 and 1999) and Sammy Sosa (1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001) as the only players to reach 50 four times.
Although, Judge didn’t even lead the AL as Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh topped the majors with 58, while Philadelphia’s Kyle Schwarber led the NL with 56 and the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ Shohei Ohtani finished with 53. It marked only the third season with four players hitting 50 along with 1998 (Greg Vaughn, Ken Griffey Jr, McGwire and Sosa) and 2001 (Alex Rodriguez, Luis Gonzalez, Barry Bonds and Sosa).
Judge, the +215 favorite for another AL MVP, is given an Over/Under of 48.5 homers this season at FanDuel but is a -110 favorite at DraftKings to reach 50. For 60, Judge is +500. He is also the +350 favorite to lead the majors.
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Not that Judge needs any added motivation on Opening Night, but he’s from nearby Sacramento and grew up a Giants fans. Judge pondered signing with the team when he was a free agent following the 2022 season but ended up returning to the Bronx.
In his career at Oracle Park, Judge is 6-for-10 with three homers, six RBI and five runs scored so he is clearly hyped up when playing near home. Judge has nine plate appearances vs. Giants ace Logan Webb, who starts tonight (they were teammates on Team USA in the WBC), and is 3-for-7 with a dinger and three RBI. No. 99 is +225 to go yard tonight and +125 for an RBI.
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The 29-year-old Webb makes his fifth consecutive Opening Day assignment for the Giants, which will mark the second-longest streak in franchise history behind Hall of Famer Juan Marichal (six), and is 0-1 with a 3.91 ERA in the first four. The righty Webb is an annual NL Cy Young candidate (+1700 this season) who finished fourth in the NL voting in 2025 after going 15-11 with a 3.22 ERA, 224 strikeouts (most in National League) and an MLB-high 207 innings.
Webb is the definition of a workhorse and might be a bit more stretched out than most Opening Day starters will be in that Webb not only pitched in three Cactus League games but started twice for the Americans in the World Baseball Classic and was terrific, allowing one run over 8.2 innings.
Right-handed hitters don’t fare well off Webb, but lefties hit .286 off him with a .769 OPS in 2025, so expect a lot of lefties in the New York lineup – as many as six of them. Webb has three career starts vs. the Yankees and is 1-2 with a 5.50 ERA in 18.0 innings.
Tonight also marks the first regular-season professional game that Giants manager Tony Vitello has managed, as he was hired directly from the University of Tennessee in an MLB first. For what it’s worth, Vitello led San Francisco to a to a 19-9 record in Cactus League play, second only to the Dodgers (20-8). Vitello is +1400 for NL Manager of the Year.
Outfielder and former Yankee Harrison Bader, signed in the offseason, has been dealing with some hamstring issues but should be ready to go. Bader played for Team Israel in the WBC and also appeared in nine spring games with San Francisco before the injury, slashing.316/.409/.579.
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Like the Giants, the Yankees were rather quiet in free agency. New York did go shopping for some big-name targets but generally lost out and re-signed its own guys like Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt and Trent Grisham. There’s a ton of pressure on Aaron Boone to finally win a World Series, and he’s a +500 second-favorite to be the first manager fired this season.
Lefty Max Fried makes his first Opening Day start with the Yankees but had made three previously with Atlanta and was 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA. Fried signed an eight-year, $218 million contract with the Yanks before the 2025 season and delivered in going 19-5 with a 2.86 ERA, setting career highs in wins, starts (32), innings pitched (195.1) and strikeouts (189), earning an All-Star selection.
Fried was fourth in the AL Cy Young voting and is +1500 this year. He was just OK this spring in three starts without a decision and 4.40 ERA in 14.1 innings. The 32-year-old California native is 4-1 with a 2.68 ERA in nine career appearances vs. the Giants spanning 50.1 innings.
San Francisco was one of the worst teams in baseball in 2025 vs. lefties with a 17-28 record against them and league-worst marks of a .214 average and .631 OPS. The Giants’ biggest lineup addition in free agency was multiple-time batting champion Luis Arraez. The lefty hitter murders righties but is average against southpaws.
Last April, the Giants visited Yankee Stadium for a three-game series and won two. Tonight will be the first MLB regular-season game to use the Automated Ball-Strike Challenge System. There were some hiccups with ABS this spring, but it worked.
FanDuel single-game parlay (+123)
- Aaron Judge 1+ Hit/Run/RBI
- Giants Alt +2.5
- Alt Over 4.5
I’ll never bet Judge or any player to homer because it’s too random. Tend to see him getting on base a few times via walks/pitched around. And maybe he does jack one with the winds reportedly blowing out 15 mph at Oracle Park. I originally planned to wager a high Alt Under, but with the winds opted to shift way down to that alt 4.5 Over so if it ends 2-2 in regulation we are assured a win. As for the spread, I’ll take just about any home team +2.5 in a big-league game. The model has New York prevailing 5.0-4.2.
