You may be waiting for bracket advice, but the 2026 NCAA Tournament will not wait for you to finish flipping a coin sweating those Sweet 16 selections. Official action starts Tuesday night in Dayton with the First Four, and while the traditional drama of the opening weekend is still a couple days away there is real urgency in every corner for these teams fighting for a spot in the field of 64.
The night will start with UMBC and Howard, both teams that exemplified excellence within their conference but lacked the high-end resume wins to warrant a higher spot on the seed line. It’s a style battle that will hinge largely on whether Howard, making its third appearance in the NCAA Tournament across the last four years, can impact the game with its pace and pressure defense. The Bison are 0-2 in their previous appearances, most recently losing in Dayton back in 2024. UMBC meanwhile is in the Big Dance for the first time since 2018, when it shocked the world as the first No. 16 seed to beat a No. 1 in the expanded bracket era.
The bubble-team night cap for Tuesday features two teams that appeared safe from Dayton a few weeks ago but backslid over the final stretch of the season. Texas and NC State both have 1-5 records since Feb. 20, and though many of those defeats have come to tournament teams the absence of wins has some doubt on their form at this point in the year. But all of that frustration can be flushed away quickly with an NCAA Tournament run, and that has to start with a win on Tuesday. Texas coach Sean Miller and NC State coach Will Wade both navigated some difficult times over the last 10 years, so a little adversity is not to going rattle them. The question is which coach here at the end of his first year on the job has a group ready to respond with the season on the brink.
The intrigue for the first Four has been heightened by the success of teams that win once they hit the 64-team bracket. In 12 of the 14 tournaments since the First Four was created, at least one of the winners has gone on to win its next game and make the second round. In total, five teams have made it all the way to the Sweet 16 from the First Four, and twice we have seen the dream continue all the way to the Final Four with VCU in 2011 and UCLA in 2021.
But for now we put Final Four dreams to the side and focus on the action at hand in Dayton, where two teams will continue their 2026 season for at least another game. Let’s go inside each matchup and find a pick for the game, setting the stage for a fun Tuesday night appetizer to the wall-to-wall drama that’s coming later this week.
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(16) UMBC vs. (16) Howard
6:40 p.m on TruTv | March Madness Live
UMBC, like Howard, was not like one of these other mid-majors that crashed the 206 tournament field from the middle of the standings by stealing the conference tournament. Both of these teams were the class of their respective conferences throughout the year, excelling on offense, defense and in the win column. Now they get one stage to determine who will continue on play No. 1 seed Michigan in Buffalo on Thursday.
I think UMBC has a higher offensive ceiling in this game with a couple different options for players who can handle the offensive responsibility. DJ Armstrong, Jah’Likai King or Ace Valentine are capable of stepping up, and if Howard can’t force turnovers with its pressure defense then it might struggle to defend UMBC’s scorers in the half-court. They key to breaking that pressure and preventing Howard’s transition game is great ball security and a commitment to getting back on defense that includes selling out on the offensive glass. Since UMBC can turn this into a game on its terms, I like their odds to win. Pick: UMBC -1.5
(11) Texas vs. (11) NC State
9:15 p.m. on TruTV | March Madness Live
NC State is not particularly physical or outstandingly athletic on the defensive end, which is an area that Texas should be able to exploit with some success given how aggressively they attack the rim and end up getting to the free throw line. Those easy points should help the Longhorns fill it up even if it’s a tough shooting night, though that alone will not guarantee success in the game given the way that Texas defended over the final weeks of the season.
The Longhorns enter the NCAA Tournament having lost five of their last six, with the level of defense not being good enough to win games against the SEC’s best teams. NC State may not be rated as highly as one of the SEC’s best teams, but it’s got an offense that can absolutely force the issue in this game. That will keep a fire under Texas, which is not a high-possession team on average, to keep scoring in a game that should see them get to 80. Pick: Texas Team Total Over 79.5
