NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket picks, Cinderella teams, best upsets: Model simulates March Madness 10,000 times

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A strong crop of freshmen in college basketball will be among the names to watch in the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket. The 2026 March Madness bracket will give fans one more chance to see one-and-done prospects like AJ Dybantsa of BYU, Darryn Peterson of Kansas and Cameron Boozer of Duke. Dybantsa’s Cougars are a No. 6 seed awaiting the winner of Texas vs. NC State, Peterson and No. 4 Kansas will take on No. 13 Cal Baptist, and Boozer will lead top overall seed Duke against No. 16 Siena.

Other freshmen to watch in the March Madness bracket 2026 include Kingston Flemings of Houston, Nate Ament of Tennessee and Darius Acuff Jr. of Arkansas, all of whom are projected lottery picks in the 2026 NBA Draft. Before making any 2026 March Madness bracket predictions, be sure to check out the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91 percent of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn’s championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.

It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.

Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket being revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.

2026 March Madness bracket games to watch

One of the 2026 March Madness matchups to keep an eye on: No. 8 seed Villanova vs. No. 9 seed Utah State in the West Region. Villanova has been one of the top teams in college basketball in recent years, winning the NCAA Tournament in 2016 and 2018 before making another trip to the Final Four in 2022. The Wildcats join Ohio State as the only programs that have played in the NCAA Tournament in every decade since the 1930s. Utah State is back in the Big Dance for the fourth year in a row as it tries to make a run to the Final Four for the first time since 1970.

Also in the West Region, Miami vs. Missouri figures to be a pivotal 7 vs. 10 matchup. The Tigers weren’t particularly impressive down the stretch, but Quad-1 wins against Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M were enough to get the Tigers in the field. Miami might be the stronger team on paper as the Hurricanes have a balanced portfolio with strong offensive and defensive metrics. The Tigers, however, did get the extremely favorable draw of playing their first-round game in St. Louis, just a couple hours from campus, giving them a de factor home-court advantage in this one.

The third matchup to watch in the West Region is No. 4 seed Arkansas vs. No. 13 seed Hawaii. Arkansas took a big step in Year 2 under coach John Calipari. The Razorbacks went 26-8 and just won the SEC Tournament, knocking off a red-hot Vanderbilt squad in the championship matchup just a few hours before the Selection Show. The Razorbacks rank fifth nationally in scoring offense (90.1 PPG). The Razorbacks, however, are one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation. That’s an area Hawaii thrives in, so the Rainbow Warriors could dominate the glass enough to make this one interesting. You can see how far all these teams go over at SportsLine.

How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions

How far will those major programs go? And which Cinderella teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model’s track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you’ll want to see which stunners it is calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.

So what’s the optimal NCAA Tournament bracket 2026? And which 2026 March Madness underdogs will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams you can back with confidence, all from the model that’s nailed 25 upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception and beat over 91% of players in four of the last seven tournaments.





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