When teams all around the bubble (Nebraska, Virginia, Stanford, Texas A&M, Utah, Mississippi State) go one-and-done in their conference tournaments, a couple of wins can be huge for a team’s March Madness chances. Arizona State (24-10) understood the assignment, with wins over Arizona and Iowa State that see the Sun Devils climbing back into the projected field of 68.
No power conference team with at least 24 wins has ever been left out of the NCAA Tournament. At the same time, 24-win power conference teams usually aren’t No. 51 in the NET. Crucially, the Sun Devils picked up their first Quad 1 win of the season against Iowa State, but the Cyclones are unlikely to be better than a No. 9 seed in the NCAA Tournament, which isn’t quite a “signature” win in my book. Arizona State’s run in the Big 12 Tournament came to an end Friday with a loss against West Virginia.
Still, Arizona State has a 6-2 record in Quad 2 games and wins against all the Big 12 teams around the bubble except for BYU. It also has the WAB ranking of a team that should be just inside the field. That’s where I have them, as the last team in.
It’s been a remarkable season in Tempe, as coach Molly Miller has led a 14-win turnaround in her first season at the school. A trip to March Madness would be the icing on the cake.
Bracketology — March 7
Last four in
- Colorado (Next game: vs. West Virginia, 6:30 p.m. ET)
- Nebraska
- South Dakota State (vs. South Dakota, 3:30 p.m. ET)
- Arizona State
First four out
- Virginia
- Richmond (vs. George Mason, 1:30 p.m. ET)
- BYU
- Stanford
Next four out
- Texas A&M
- Utah
- Mississippi State
- Kansas
What to Watch For
Could LSU grab the final No. 1 seed?
It seemed likely that Texas and Vanderbilt would play for the last No. 1 seed in the SEC Semifinals, but what would’ve been a must-watch game wasn’t to be, as Ole Miss thoroughly dominated Vanderbilt in the first half on Friday, leading 49-17 at the break and coasting to an 89-78 win.
That takes Vanderbilt out of the running and should mean that Texas ends as a No. 1 seed. For perspective, the Longhorns have the No. 3 WAB in the country, better than UConn and more than four full wins ahead of LSU. But seeing as how Vanderbilt jumped Texas earlier in the season after beating the Longhorns, if LSU can beat South Carolina and Texas en route to an SEC Tournament title, they will have at least a chance.
LSU certainly looked like a national title contender in its 34-point win over Oklahoma in the SEC Quarterfinals, the biggest margin of victory in an SEC Tournament full of blowouts thus far. If Iowa and Michigan win the Big Ten Tournament, they could also have an outside look at a No. 1 seed if Texas doesn’t prevail in Greenville.
North Carolina steals Michigan State’s hosting spot
The Tar Heels have been pushing for what looked like an unlikely top-four seed for two months now, and it’s finally paid off. After Minnesota, Maryland and Michigan State lost their opening games in the Big Ten Tournament, the door was open for UNC, and a win over Virginia Tech sent them through.
Michigan State now drops to a No. 5 seed while Minnesota and Maryland are safe for now but still potentially vulnerable to West Virginia, Notre Dame and Ole MIss depending on results over the next two days.
One- or two-bid leagues?
The Big 12 is the only remaining power conference with bubble implications. Colorado, which should now be in the field, gets West Virginia in the Big 12 Semifinals. Kansas State, the conference No. 12 seed, is just two wins away from becoming one of the unlikeliest bid-stealers of all time.
But if the Wildcats can’t get it done against TCU or in the final, all attention will shift to the mid-majors. Princeton winning the Ivy League Tournament would take Columbia out of the field and open up an at-large spot. The same would be true for South Dakota State winning the Summit League Tournament and taking out North Dakota State.
In the Atlantic 10, Rhode Island is an 11 seed while Richmond is the second team out. Both teams have a chance at an at-large and can be helped immensely by Princeton and South Dakota State.
Lastly, Fairfield has an outside chance of an at-large if they make it to the MAAC Championship and lose to Quinnipiac. A pair of Quad 1 road wins against Villanova and Richmond carry the Stags’ resume and mean they could potentially steal a bid from the at-large field.
