Joe Lunardi’s men’s Bracketology March Madness watch guide

By the time Selection Sunday arrives, there will have been plenty of movement in the projected field of 68 for the 2026 NCAA tournament regarding the teams that are in, as well as those looking to get in.

While our Tuesday and Friday Bracketology updates allow us to look at the race to March Madness holistically twice a week, results every day matter and can affect teams — whether they’re playing or not.

Men’s Bracketologist Joe Lunardi is tracking every relevant game every night — and why shouldn’t you?

Here, we provide an inside look at the headlines and upcoming matchups that inform Joey Brackets’ calculations on any given night, as he projects the teams that could have their names called on Selection Sunday (March 15).

A couple of housekeeping things: This page will update every day around lunchtime, between Tuesday and Saturday to start — with a few exceptions. Games are listed in order of importance to the bracket changes. A team’s projection on that day is listed in parentheses if not otherwise noted.

Scores available here. All times Eastern

Projected field of 68 |
NCAA tournament details

Saturday, Jan. 31

HEADLINES

• State of the top seeds: Michigan faces the latest challenge to its 1-seed at Michigan State on Friday (8 p.m., Fox), but can likely sustain a loss.

• State of the bubble: Every relevant team except TCU plays Saturday, so expect plenty of movement. Virginia Tech (vs. Duke) and Murray State (at Belmont) would be in with wins. These five would be out with a loss: Indiana (at UCLA), Texas (at Oklahoma), USC (vs. Rutgers), New Mexico (at San Jose State) and San Diego State (at Utah State).

GAMES THAT COULD AFFECT THE BRACKET

• (1) Duke at (First Out) Virginia Tech. The Hokies could save six weeks of anguish with an upset win. 12 p.m., ESPN

• (4) Texas Tech at (9) UCF. The Red Raiders would return to their former 3-seed with a road victory. 12 p.m., ESPN2

• (8) Texas A&M at (9) Georgia. A pair of SEC overachievers meet in a game that’s all about seeding. 1 p.m., SECN

• (10) San Diego State at (9) Utah State. Winner takes command of the Mountain West. 1 p.m., CBS

• (Last Four In) Texas at Oklahoma. The Longhorns’ NCAA tournament hopes can ill-afford a second consecutive loss. 2 p.m., ESPN2

• (4) BYU at (4) Kansas. Two 4-seeds collide with a full seed line at stake for each. 4:30 p.m., ESPN

• Montana State at (14) Portland State. Winner leads the Big Sky and takes a spot in Tuesday’s bracket. 5 p.m., ESPN+

• (8) Kentucky at (5) Arkansas. An Arkansas win and Texas A&M loss would put the Hogs atop the SEC. 6:30 p.m., ESPN

• (First Four Out) Santa Clara at Loyola Marymount. Wins by Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s would put the Broncos as the WCC’s projected automatic qualifier. 9 p.m., ESPN

• (9) Saint Mary’s at (3) Gonzaga. The final installment of a classic WCC rivalry begins in Spokane. 10:30 p.m., ESPN