New polling shows Democrats with a substantial lead among Latino voters ahead of the midterms. But interviews in Texas reveal sharply different views on immigration, economic concerns and frustration with both political parties.
DALLAS —
Before a recent trip, Gloria Suarez’s husband asked her a question she never expected: Did she have her birth certificate?
For Suarez, a Texas voter, the question reflects how President Donald Trump’s immigration enforcement policies have affected her sense of security.
“I never dreamed there would be a day when I would have to prove my citizenship in this country,” Suarez told Hearst Television.
“I think immigration issues are extremely important. What’s happening right now is critical. I think we all feel under threat,” she said.
But another Latino voter in Texas sees those same enforcement policies very differently.
“I think that’s the best thing that can happen,” said Diana Escamilla, who strongly supports the president’s immigration crackdown. “It’s just a shame that it came to this point. So many invaders.”
Escamilla has spent nearly her entire life along the Rio Grande in South Texas, a region once considered a Democratic stronghold.
“It was always ‘pull the palanca’ — pull the lever. All Democrat, across the board,” she recalled.
Their opposing views illustrate the complicated political landscape facing Republicans and Democrats ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections, when Latino voters could help determine control of Congress.
Their disagreement also reflects the divide over one of Trump’s signature policies.
A new Pew Research Center survey found 62% of Latino registered voters believe the Trump administration is doing too much when it comes to deportations.
But among Latino voters supporting Republican congressional candidates, 47% say the administration is doing about the right amount, while another 33% believe it isn’t doing enough, according to the Pew survey.
Even some Republicans have warned that immigration enforcement could hurt their party.
Rep. María Elvira Salazar, who represents a heavily Latino district in Miami, delivered that message in a September campaign advertisement filmed outside the White House.
“The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today,” Salazar said.
Yet some voters who helped elect Trump remain firmly committed to Republicans.
Mike Mendez, who had not been particularly engaged in politics before voting for Trump in 2024, said he plans to stick with the party.
Asked whether he was still voting Republican, Mendez responded without hesitation.
“Of course. Definitely,” Mendez said.
But when asked whether Trump could maintain his support among Latino voters without appearing on the ballot himself, Mendez was less certain.
“It’s hard to say right now,” he said, pointing to the emotions surrounding immigration enforcement and how it is portrayed in the media.
The economy could matter even more
Despite the intense debate over immigration, another issue ranks even higher among Latino voters heading into November: the economy, according to polling.
Pew Research found 86% of Latino registered voters consider the economy very important to their congressional vote, compared with 64% who say the same about immigration.
Economic concerns cross party lines, with majorities of Latino voters supporting both Democratic and Republican congressional candidates identifying the economy as a top priority.
Pew found 80% are very concerned about gas and energy prices, while 74% believe Trump’s policies have made economic conditions worse.
Matthew Wilson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist University, believes economic dissatisfaction could ultimately prove more damaging to Republicans than immigration enforcement.
“If President Trump and Republicans experience losses among Latino voters in this cycle, and I think they will, it’s going to be more about economic dissatisfaction and economic unease than it is about immigration related issues,” Wilson said.
But Democrats also face questions about whether they’re connecting with voters.
Candace Valenzuela, a former Biden-Harris official now running for county commissioner as a Democrat, acknowledged that her party failed to connect with some voters in 2024, while Trump delivered a message that resonated.
“When it doesn’t seem like you are offering anything that looks like empowerment, they’re not going to want to vote for you,” Valenzuela said.
What’s at stake in November
With competitive congressional races across the country, Latino voters could play a consequential role in determining which party controls the House.
In closely contested districts with sizable Latino populations, even relatively small changes in turnout or political support could make the difference between victory and defeat.
Trump won 46% of Latino voters in 2024, compared with 51% for Kamala Harris, according to a national exit poll conducted by Edison Research. It was one of the strongest showings for a Republican presidential candidate among Latino voters in decades.
But new polling suggests Republicans face a difficult test: maintaining those gains without Trump on the ballot.
An October Reuters/Ipsos poll found Hispanic registered voters favoring Democratic congressional candidates 52% to 26%.
A separate Equis Research poll showed a similar gap, with Democrats leading 57% to 31%.
The 2024 presidential exit poll and 2026 congressional preference surveys measure different contests and are not directly comparable.
A warning for both parties
But beyond individual policies and political promises, some Latino voters say their frustration comes down to whether politicians are listening.
At a small Dallas diner, voters, community leaders and politicians gather on the first Saturday of each month to discuss issues ranging from schools and health care to government spending.
Joe Valdez, who attends the gatherings, says politicians often pay attention to Latino communities during election season, only for that attention to disappear afterward.
“Many of us feel like they love us before elections … but after the election … ya no te conozco,” Valdez said, using a Spanish expression meaning “I don’t know you anymore.”
New polling also raises questions about how connected Latino voters feel to the parties they support. Among Latino voters backing Democratic congressional candidates, just 42% say the Democratic Party cares about people like them a great deal or quite a bit. Among those supporting Republicans, 43% say the same about the GOP.
For Valdez, the choice comes down to the individual candidate rather than party affiliation.
“I vote the person. Not necessarily whether they’re Republican or Democrat or independent,” he said. “I listen to what they have to say.”
