Stop us if you’ve heard this before: The Chiefs and the 49ers are among the best teams in the NFL.
Kansas City and San Francisco are a combined 11-0 and are two of the three remaining undefeated teams, joined by the 5-0 Vikings. Since 2019 — the season they first met in the Super Bowl — the Chiefs have the most wins (including playoffs) in the NFL, and the 49ers are third, behind the Chiefs and the Bills.
Are we looking at a Chiefs-49ers Super Bowl for the third time in eight seasons? SportsLine projections currently have it as the most likely matchup for the Lombardi Trophy. These are the five most likely through six weeks:
- Chiefs vs. 49ers: 5.85%
- Bills vs. 49ers: 5.19%
- Chiefs vs. Vikings: 4.41%
- Bills vs. Vikings: 3.91%
- Jaguars vs. 49ers: 3.30%
As you can see, none are particularly likely. That’s because one, it’s only Week 7, and two, any specific matchup is extremely unlikely until deep into the playoffs. SportsLine still gives eight AFC teams and seven NFC teams at least a 5% chance to make the Super Bowl. While the Chiefs and the 49ers are the favorites to emerge from their conferences, it’s an extremely tight race.
So what’s making these teams so good, and who — or what — could stop them? Let’s dig in.
49ers, Chiefs strengths
Offense
The 49ers and Chiefs share one major strength: their offenses. They rank third and sixth, respectively, in points per drive.
It starts with the rushing game. The 49ers lead the NFL in rushing success rate (a down-to-down measure), and the Chiefs lead the NFL in rushing expected points added (which takes into account situation and rewards big plays more).
Kenneth Walker III has been a revelation for the Chiefs. They had the least explosive running back rush rate from 2024-25. This year, they are second in explosive rushing rate, and Walker leads the NFL with 665 rushing yards (despite having already had his bye week) and 6.3 yards per rush. His seven rushes of 20+ yards are tied for the most in the NFL.
Both teams are also among the best passing teams in the NFL. San Francisco is second in net yards per attempt, and Kansas City is third. The 49ers have allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL (five); the Chiefs are second with six. While the 49ers aren’t as explosive on the ground as the Chiefs are, they are more explosive through the air. San Francisco’s explosive passing rate is third in the NFL. (The Chiefs are eighth, not far behind.)
So, long story short, Brock Purdy and Patrick Mahomes are both playing excellent football, and both have great ecosystems — from play callers to offensive lines to running games — around them.
Defense
Defensively, both teams do an excellent job of limiting explosive plays, and a big reason for that is sure tackling. The Chiefs have the lowest missed tackle rate in the NFL, and the 49ers are second. The Chiefs are also the best rush defense in the NFL by success rate.
Both teams have been stout against the pass thanks to excellent cornerback play. For the Chiefs, second-year cornerback Nohl Williams has been terrific this year, as has first-round rookie Mansoor Delane. For San Francisco, it’s Upton Stout, Deommodore Lenoir and Renardo Greene.
So far this season, 79 players across the NFL have been the primary defender on at least 25 passes.
- Williams ranks first in completion percentage allowed (34.5%), second in passer rating allowed (45.6) and third in yards per attempt allowed (3.6).
- Delane is eighth in passer rating allowed (63.8).
- Green is sixth in passer rating allowed (61.7). He’s also tied for the NFL lead with three interceptions.
- Lenoir is 13th in yards per completion allowed (8.8).
- Stout is 20th in yards per completion allowed (9.7). He is also excellent against the run.
The Chiefs also have the league’s best run defense on a success rate basis.
Add in significant star power, too — Chris Jones in Kansas City, Fred Warner in San Francisco, for example — and both teams have been among the NFL’s best this year.
What could stop a Chiefs vs. 49ers Super Bowl?
49ers injuries, especially at wide receiver
The 49ers are dealing with so many injuries that they’re running out of IR-designated return spots. Teams only get eight per year, so San Francisco has kept Nick Bosa (calf/knee), who hasn’t played since Week 2 and would have normally gone on IR, on the active roster.
The most injured spot, by far, is wide receiver. Mike Evans is one of two wideouts to appear in all six games this season, but he left Monday’s win over the Commanders after aggravating the Achilles soreness he has dealt with all year, and he will miss time. The only other wide receiver to appear in all six games is Jacob Cowing, who has one catch.
Currently, the 49ers have three healthy wide receivers — Cowing, Brandin Cooks and Jordan Watkins — on their active roster. Kirk could be close to returning, too. Still, it’s a really fragile group, and Evans’s late departure in the first half on Monday showed his absence could be the straw that finally breaks the camel’s back.
|
49ers offense vs. Commanders |
1st half |
2nd half |
|
Plays |
41 |
19 |
|
Yards |
303 |
72 |
|
Yards per play |
7.4 |
3.8 |
|
Sacks |
0 |
2 |
Injuries have been a consistent issue for this team the past couple of years. Somehow, the 49ers just keep winning, but it is an issue that considerably lowers their ceiling, especially against some of the league’s best.
Can 49ers stop the run?
San Francisco’s defense is leaps and bounds better than last year overall, but one issue remains: run defense. The 49ers are 24th in defensive rushing success rate, even without having played many of the NFL’s best rushing attacks. Overall, this hasn’t caused too much of an issue because the 49ers, one, score so much that other teams are often passing to keep up, and, two, don’t give up explosives. But that doesn’t mean it won’t be an issue in the future. The 49ers face Bijan Robinson this weekend in what will be their sternest test yet.
Chiefs need more sacks, better defense on play action
Only the Dolphins have fewer sacks than the Chiefs’ eight, and the Chiefs’ 4.2% sack rate ranks 29th in the NFL.
The good news for Kansas City is that it is getting a ton of pressure. It ranks a solid 12th in pressure rate, and its 47 quick pressures (within 2.5 seconds of the snap) are tied for eighth-most. Plus, that’s with the Chiefs having only played five games. They just need to turn more of those pressures into sacks. Steve Spagnuolo has a deep Rolodex of blitz packages, and he often knows exactly when to use them.
We’ll also note one other issue. The Chiefs have been pretty bad defending under-center play action: 30th in passing success rate and 28th in yards per attempt. The Colts and the Raiders specifically exploited this issue:
|
Under-center play action vs. Chiefs |
K. Cousins |
D. Jones |
|
Att-Comp |
7-9 |
11-12 |
|
Pass yds |
90 |
122 |
|
TD-Int |
1-0 |
1-0 |
|
Passer rating |
145.4 |
136.8 |
Even Malik Willis had two big completions on these types of throws.
The Kansas City linebackers play really close to the line of scrimmage, which has helped a lot against the run but can make it hard for them to get back if they trigger down on play action. Teams could look to take advantage there.
Special teams issues
Don’t forget about special teams! The Chiefs and the 49ers both have major issues here, ranking 30th and 31st, respectively, in special teams expected points added.
- 49ers kicker Eddy Piñeiro is 6-for-9 on field goals this season and 19-for-22 on extra points.
- Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker is 10-for-13 on field goals.
- All three misses for both kickers have been from 50+ yards.
- The Chiefs are dead last in yards per punt return allowed (15.3).
Just something to keep an eye on.
Who could stop Chiefs vs. 49ers Super Bowl?
We can’t list out everyone, but here are three options from each conference:
Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen is 5-1 against Patrick Mahomes in the regular season but 0-4 against him in the playoffs. Three of those four postseason losses have been by six or fewer points. At some point, that has to even out … right? The Bills’ offense has been outstanding this year, and much of that has been without D.J. Moore. There are defensive concerns, but if you have Allen, you have a chance.
Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson has looked like a bona fide MVP candidate — if not among the front runners — when he’s been on the field. An ankle injury caused him to miss the last two games, but if he’s back and fully healthy, he looks terrific. Derrick Henry is a load to bring down, and Zay Flowers is looking like a breakout star in Declan Doyle’s offense. Plus, the defense is starting to come around under new coach Jesse Minter.
New England Patriots
How about the only team to beat the Bills, who are thought to be the top competition, so far this season? Drake Maye had a brutal start but has been much better in recent weeks, including in the win over Buffalo when he threw three touchdown passes and ran for 54 yards. The defense has been solid as ever, too.
And then in the NFC …
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks turned the ball over four times, including one when they were just trying to run the half out that resulted in a 49ers touchdown, against San Francisco in Week 5, and still only lost by three. Yes, Seattle has major turnover issues, but it also has a ferocious defense that has historically had the upper hand against Shanahan and Purdy. To count out the reigning champs would be a bad idea.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are 5-0 and have a defense that is absolutely wreaking havoc on opponents. Brian Flores is a madman whose blitzes can run even the best offenses into the ground. On offense, the running game is starting to get going, and Kyler Murray had his best outing before the bye. Justin Jefferson is still a superstar.
Chicago Bears
We could really go with several other NFC North teams, but Chicago sneaks in here. The Bears’ offense is one of the NFL’s best with Caleb Williams playing, and last year’s 42-38 loss to the 49ers suggests a rematch could be a ton of fun. Chicago also has a running game to test the 49ers’ weaknesses.
