Experts say where parties spend limited resources can offer clues about where elections are tightening.
WASHINGTON —
Campaigns are flooding the airwaves in the final two weeks before Election Day, and political ad spending this cycle is already setting records.
The price tag — more than $10 billion in combined aired ad spending and future reservations — has now topped the previous midterm election high set in 2022 and could surpass spending in the 2024 presidential election season, according to data compiled by media-tracking firm AdImpact.
Experts say more ad spending doesn’t necessarily translate to more wins, but where parties spend limited resources can offer clues about the direction of key elections.
Republicans are trying to maintain control of both chambers of Congress, but AdImpact found the party is putting far more resources into defending its Senate majority. New data posted Tuesday puts Republican ad spending in the ten most competitive Senate races at $1.03 billion, far exceeding Democrats’ $710 million.
Both parties are spending the most in Ohio’s Senate race, with a combined $467 million in the general election as of Oct. 20. That’s followed by Senate contests in Texas ($368M), Michigan (220M), Maine ($208M), Iowa ($203M), Alaska ($90.5M), New Hampshire ($77.6M), Kansas ($60M), South Carolina ($33.8M), and Minnesota ($7.1M).
“When you get into the fall, you watch where the money goes, and you can see those are the races that are tightening up,” said Brendan Glavin, director of insights for Open Secrets, which researches money in politics.
Glavin said the big spending in historically red states like Texas, Iowa, and Kansas is “very unusual.” He said it could signal that Republicans are worried about losing in those places.
“They may still feel like they have the edge, but if your opponent is putting in a lot of resources and they’re doing well, then you can’t sit idle and not be on the air yourself,” Glavin said.
In another sign of shifting battlegrounds, Republicans have pulled back spending in states where Democrats have widened their edge in recent months, according to the Cook Political Report.
AdImpact figures found the GOP is slated to spend $3.5 million in Georgia in the final two weeks, compared to $9.5 million from Democrats. In North Carolina, where President Donald Trump is campaigning on Tuesday, Republicans are expected to spend just $2.4 million in the final push, while Democrats are shelling out $14.4 million to try to flip the seat.
The parties also differ in how they’re paying for their ads.
AdImpact found Democratic candidates are outspending their Republican counterparts, but Republicans have received much more money from outside groups. That’s driving the GOP’s overall cash advantage, although candidates are charged a lower advertising rate than Super PACs.
The Trump-aligned Super PAC, MAGA Inc., has been a major source of Republican funding. In a Tuesday social media post, Trump said he plans to spend over $400 million by Election Day.
