There’s only one undefeated team left in the entire Big Ten and SEC combined.
UCLA, which won three total games last season, is 6-0 with a new home in the top 10 — for now. With the way this campaign is going, just give it a minute. Five of the top seven teams in the Associated Press poll lost Saturday, shaking up the playoff picture and unveiling yet another new No. 1. It was the most losses by the AP’s top seven on a single day in the poll’s history, which stretches back to 1936.
From start to finish Saturday, Week 7 went down to the wire, with Texas and Alabama adding second losses to their résumés, Georgia falling at home to Auburn and Notre Dame coming up short in its first real test of the season at BYU.
With only two Saturdays remaining until the College Football Playoff selection committee reveals its first ranking on Nov. 3, the playoff picture remains muddled with no clear-cut No. 1 team asserting itself above the pack.
So, who has earned the top spot at the midpoint of the season?
Based on historical knowledge and an understanding of the criteria and protocol, here’s a look at what the committee might do if the rankings were today.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: Georgia lost. Notre Dame lost. And the Hurricanes eked out a double-overtime win at home against rival Florida State in a too-close-for-comfort outing against what is now a four-loss team. While Miami lacks a true statement win, it does have three road victories, including two against ACC teams above .500 in Wake Forest and Clemson. The Sept. 18 triumph at Wake Forest will get more credit in the committee meeting room than it does from the average college football fan, as the Demon Deacons have won four straight and are on a path to see Miami again in the ACC title game. Miami’s undefeated record and statistical dominance continue to outweigh its average schedule strength, with Saturday’s narrow decision being the lone time this season the Canes didn’t prevail by at least 13 points.
Why they could be lower: Ohio State’s win at Indiana on Saturday is better than any win Miami has on its résumé.
Need to know: Even if Miami loses at Notre Dame on Nov. 7, it would still be a CFP team; but where it gets tricky is if the Canes lose that game and don’t win the ACC title. The ACC champion is guaranteed a spot. But would a two-loss runner-up that dropped its only two games against ranked opponents finish in the top 12?
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 at Notre Dame. It will be the second straight away game for Miami after playing at North Carolina on Halloween, and the Fighting Irish likely will be Miami’s only ranked opponent it faces during the regular season.
Why they could be here: With Saturday’s win at Indiana, the Buckeyes have two top-25 road wins against Big Ten opponents and have won five straight since their Week 2 loss at Texas. With Texas losing to Florida and earning its second loss, the committee would no longer use the Longhorns’ head-to-head win over the Buckeyes as a tiebreaker because their records are no longer comparable.
Why they could be lower: Ohio State was fortunate that wide-open Indiana wide receiver Nick Marsh landed out of bounds on what would have been the game-winning touchdown with about a minute left in Saturday’s game. It was a gritty victory for Ohio State, but partly because the Buckeyes made it difficult for themselves. Quarterback Julian Sayin threw two interceptions for the second straight week. Ohio State’s collapse against now-two-loss Texas also looks worse in retrospect. Miami has been more impressive on film — and is undefeated — but against a weaker schedule.
Need to know: The selection committee considers injuries to key players, and Sayin will be out “several weeks” with an injury he suffered in the win against Indiana, coach Ryan Day said after the game. Ohio State has a bye week before traveling to USC to play on Halloween. With Sayin sidelined, the Buckeyes turned to true freshman Luke Fahey in the fourth quarter, and he threw two incomplete passes but the defense helped preserve Ohio State’s precarious 19-15 lead. While the committee members will understand the situation, they also will watch to see if Ohio State looks like a playoff contender with Fahey in the lineup.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 31 at USC. It’s about 2,000 miles away from Columbus, and the Trojans are a talented one-loss team that could flip the script in the Big Ten with a win — right before the first CFP ranking is revealed.
Why they could be here: The Cougars earned a statement win against Notre Dame, giving them the best win of any team currently ranked in the top five. It also helped BYU that Georgia lost to Auburn and that Alabama and Texas have two losses apiece. The committee also tends to single out talent, and BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier continues to be a game changer as a dual threat. He ran for two touchdowns, caught another, threw for a score and had 224 passing yards with one interception.
Why they could be higher: Some committee members could favor BYU’s unblemished record over Ohio State’s road win at Indiana and simply deem the Cougars a better team. There could also be questions in the room about Ohio State’s quarterback situation without injured starter Julian Sayin. While the committee isn’t supposed to look ahead, it got a small sample size of freshman Luke Fahey, who seemed understandably overwhelmed by the moment against Indiana.
Need to know: This week, the Big 12 is represented with three teams in the top 12, boosting the league’s chances of getting multiple teams into the CFP. BYU doesn’t play Texas Tech during the regular season but will travel to Utah on Nov. 7. The ideal scenario for the Big 12 to get multiple teams in is to have its runner-up finish with one loss. It’s not inconceivable given that BYU, Utah and Texas Tech are all undefeated, but that scenario means the winner of BYU-Utah will still have that margin for error.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 at Utah. It will be BYU’s first road game against a ranked opponent, and it’s a rivalry game that has Big 12 and CFP implications.
Why they could be here: It was a close loss on the road against a ranked opponent — which isn’t doomsday in the committee meeting room, but Notre Dame doesn’t have much on its résumé to help overcome it. The Fighting Irish are helped by the BYU defeat being considered a good loss in the room — better than Georgia losing at home to unranked Auburn or even Indiana losing at home to Ohio State and certainly better than Ole Miss getting hammered at Florida. It also helped Notre Dame that Alabama and Texas have two losses each.
Why they could be lower: Notre Dame has two wins against Power 4 opponents above .500: Wisconsin and at North Carolina. The Irish’s defense, which has been one of the nation’s best, allowed BYU’s Bear Bachmeier to complete 72% of his passes in the first half when they fell behind by 11 points.
Need to know: Notre Dame is guaranteed a spot in the CFP if it finishes in the top 12 on Selection Day, but it’s not guaranteed a spot in the top 12, which means beating Miami in November and avoiding a second loss is critical to its own mantra of “leave no doubt.” If Notre Dame also falls to Miami, it will have lost the two biggest games on its schedule without a conference title opportunity to make up for it. That would open the door for debate in the committee meeting room.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 vs. Miami. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives Notre Dame at least a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games.
Why they could be here: Georgia has a worse loss, and Alabama now has two. Indiana had a close loss to what should be one of the committee’s top-five teams, but there’s not much else on the Hoosiers’ résumé. Without a victory against the Buckeyes, the Hoosiers’ best wins are against Northwestern and Nebraska, their only two Power 4 opponents with winning records. Indiana’s defense has been significantly better than that of Ole Miss, holding opponents to just 12.9 points per game, and the Hoosiers employed one of the more effective defenses on Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith. IU has run the ball better than Ole Miss and has had far fewer penalties and turnovers.
Why they could be lower: The Hoosiers made some uncharacteristic mistakes against Ohio State and had a pedestrian performance from quarterback Josh Hoover, who completed just 20 of 40 passes for one touchdown and lost a fumble, his first turnover of the season. The biggest reason for IU to be lower, though, is a lack of a true statement win.
Need to know: If Indiana loses to USC on Nov. 14, there’s no guarantee the Hoosiers will finish in the top 12 — even if they are the reigning national champs. IU would have lost the two biggest games on its schedule, and it might not have enough on its résumé to win a debate with other two-loss contenders that played a more challenging schedule.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 14 vs. USC. This will likely be the last ranked opponent the Hoosiers face during the regular season.
Why they could be here: The selection committee has historically used losses as a way to help separate teams with similar records — who teams lost to and how — and the Bulldogs’ narrow home loss to Auburn could be viewed as better than the drubbing Ole Miss received at Florida. Losing at home to an unranked Auburn team, though, is more damaging than Indiana’s home loss to what should be a top-five Ohio State team. Georgia’s win against Alabama took a hit on Saturday after the now-two-loss Crimson Tide fell 26-10 at Tennessee and dropped out of this top 12.
Why they could be lower: With three turnovers and more undisciplined penalties, Georgia hasn’t looked like an elite team in either of the past two weeks — the first two times it has really been tested all season.
Need to know: Georgia has a bye week before facing Florida on Halloween, and it’s going to be a critical game because of the head-to-head result if Florida prevails and since Florida won at Auburn on Sept. 19. If Florida beats Georgia and has a road win against the Auburn team that beat Georgia on the Bulldogs’ home turf, it opens the door for the committee to rank the two-loss Gators ahead of the two-loss Bulldogs in that scenario. Florida also beat Ole Miss, which could be another part of the conversation.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 at Ole Miss. Georgia’s trip to Oxford will likely be the highest-ranked opponent it faces for the rest of the regular season and will give the committee an important head-to-head result to consider.
Why they could be here: With Alabama picking up its second loss, the Rebels moved up by default, but their résumé also includes two statement wins. The Rebels’ convincing 31-3 win against Missouri on Saturday boosted their résumé, which also includes a Sept. 19 win against LSU. The Rebels’ defensive woes have been glaring at times this season, though. Of the three one-loss teams clustered here, Ole Miss is allowing the most points per game (23.8), while Indiana and Georgia are each holding their opponents to under 16. The lopsided loss to Florida on Sept. 26 is glaring, but selection committee members will also know that was a tough road trip following the emotional win against former Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin in his return to Oxford with LSU. Florida’s road win at Texas also helps ease the blow of that defeat a little.
Why they could be higher: The committee could view the Rebels’ two best wins as better than the best wins of both Indiana (against Northwestern and Nebraska) and Georgia (versus Oklahoma and Alabama).
Need to know: The Rebels have four tough opponents looming, starting Saturday at Texas, and if Ole Miss loses another game, the committee could revisit the head-to-head tiebreaker with Florida, since they would both be two-loss teams.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 vs. Georgia. The Rebels get Georgia at home, but two-loss Texas is reeling right now after losing to Florida, and Auburn and Oklahoma are unranked.
Why they could be here: The Bruins have found themselves in a more stable place in the top 10 thanks in part to Alabama and Texas suffering second losses. Saturday’s triumph against Wisconsin with UCLA’s backup quarterback was important because the selection committee will want to see if the Bruins can continue to win without starting signal-caller Nico Iamaleava. Ty Dieffenbach completed 22 of 33 passes for 264 yards in his first start for UCLA, and he did it against a much-improved Wisconsin team (4-2). UCLA also has three Power 4 road victories, including a statement win at Oregon.
Why they could be lower: UCLA continues to find ways to win, but it hasn’t been able to score more than 17 points in each of the past two games against strong competition. Some of the Bruins’ stats are inflated from back-to-back games scoring at least 50 points against Purdue and Maryland.
Need to know: With back-to-back home games against Michigan State and Nevada looming — teams that are a combined 4-9 — UCLA should be undefeated heading into the season’s first CFP ranking. UCLA lost the turnover battle against Wisconsin with two interceptions.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. USC. The Trojans have a more difficult path to the regular-season finale than UCLA does, as they are at Wisconsin, followed by back-to-back games against Ohio State and Indiana. If USC can avoid another loss before heading to UCLA, the Los Angeles rivalry game will mean more than bragging rights.
Why they could be here: The Wildcats moved into the top 10 after Alabama fell out, but they’ve also earned their way into the playoff conversation for the second straight week. Kentucky’s road win against Oklahoma wasn’t easy, but it has now won five straight games, including three on the road against SEC teams. The Wildcats’ defense also played its best in three games, with four takeaways against the Sooners while allowing just one touchdown. The biggest difference between Kentucky and Tennessee right now is the significant gap in their schedule strength, as the Wildcats have been one of the top five teams in the country in ESPN’s strength of record metric and in strength of schedule.
Why they could be lower: The committee compares common opponents, and Volunteers dismantled Alabama while Kentucky lost to the Tide 45-17.
Need to know: Just because Texas A&M hasn’t lived up to the preseason hype doesn’t mean the selection committee won’t consider it a respectable win for the Wildcats. Kentucky beat the Aggies by double digits on their home turf, and as long as A&M finishes above .500, that will continue to carry value in the room.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 at Tennessee. The Vols are another CFP contender after Saturday’s drubbing of Alabama — the only team that has been able to defeat Kentucky so far.
Why they could be here: Saturday’s convincing home win against Alabama pushed the Volunteers back into the conversation, and their defense under first-year coordinator Jim Knowles continues to play at a championship-caliber level. Tennessee held Alabama scoreless for three quarters and had four takeaways, and the Tide converted just twice out of 13 times on third down. The Vols’ Oct. 3 home win against Auburn is even more respectable after the Tigers knocked off Georgia on Saturday in Athens.
Why they could be lower: The home defeat to Texas took another hit on Saturday after the Longhorns lost, and the win at Georgia Tech has dropped in value with the Yellow Jackets falling to 2-4. Wins against Furman of the FCS and 1-5 Kennesaw State aren’t going to impress the selection committee, either. The winning percentage of the Vols’ opponents is just 54.8.
Need to know: The FPI gives the Vols at least a 50% chance to win each of their remaining games except Nov. 21 against LSU.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 21 vs. LSU. Tennessee gets Kentucky and LSU at home next month, but if the Vols stumble before Nov. 21, there will be no margin for error against LSU.
Why they could be here: Saturday’s narrow win at Colorado dropped the Buffaloes to 2-4, which isn’t going to do much for Utah’s résumé aside from giving it a second Big 12 road win. Utah hasn’t defeated a Big 12 opponent with a winning record — or any team above .500. Utah has the worst schedule strength of any of the contenders listed here by a large margin, which would be glaring in the committee meeting room.
Why they could be higher: Tennessee lost to a Texas team that now has two defeats, and Kentucky fell to an Alabama squad that now has two losses.
Need to know: The FPI gives Utah at least a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 vs. BYU. This game will reveal the Big 12’s leading contender for a CFP bid, unless Texas Tech has something to say about it. The Red Raiders don’t play BYU or Utah during the regular season.
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders hammered Arizona State on Saturday to remain undefeated and add some style points against an unranked .500 opponent. They haven’t looked like the best team in the Big 12 this year, though, and they bounced into this week’s top 12 after Alabama fell out. Texas Tech’s best win is at home against Houston, the only Power 4 opponent with a winning record it has beaten.
Why they could be lower: It’s not just the Red Raiders’ schedule strength that has been ho-hum; it’s how they’ve played against it. Texas Tech quarterback Will Hammond has six passing touchdowns and five interceptions, and the Red Raiders have been average in overall offensive efficiency, ranking well below all of the other contenders listed here.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, Texas Tech would get bumped out of the bracket for the highest-ranked Group of 6 team, which is currently projected to be Boise State.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 14 at Oklahoma State. Texas Tech does not have Utah or BYU on its schedule, so a trip to Stillwater tops the list.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 BYU (Big 12 champ)
No. 4 Notre Dame
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 18 and 19
No. 12 Boise State (highest Group of 6) at No. 5 Indiana
No. 11 Utah at No. 6 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Kentucky at No. 8 UCLA
Quarterfinal games
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 30, and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential on Jan. 1.
No. 12 Boise State/No. 5 Indiana winner vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
No. 11 Utah/No. 6 Georgia winner vs. No. 3 BYU
No. 10 Tennessee/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Kentucky/No. 8 UCLA winner vs. No. 1 Miami
