2027 NFL Draft: Why Texas’ Arch Manning doesn’t have look of a No. 1 pick

We’re only three games into Arch Manning’s 2026 season at Texas, so nothing is settled. But if this start is any indication of what the next three months will look like, Manning has not resembled what we’ve come to expect from quarterbacks taken in the first round — forget No. 1 overall.

In fact, when you compare Manning’s start to the final college seasons of the 24 quarterbacks taken in the first round from 2019-25, the gap is equal parts glaring and worrisome.

Because people get in their feelings about such things, I’ll just remind you: This doesn’t mean we’re required to write off Manning as a first-round prospect. It does mean that the areas where we wanted to see improvement and consistency this season have instead stagnated or regressed. And when compared to recent first-round QBs, he ranks near the bottom.

This season in games against Texas State, Ohio State and UTSA, Manning is averaging 6.8 yards per attempt. The median for those 24 recent first-round QBs in their final college seasons was 9.3. In fact, Daniel Jones, who was the sixth-overall pick in 2019, is the only passer in the group whose final college season was also as low as 6.8.

Here’s what Manning’s start looks like compared to that first-round group:

The table tells a simple story: the data match what my eyes are telling me. Manning has flashed, but too many of the issues that showed up a season ago are still showing up now. And when you compare him to recent first-round passers, he’s “as average as grits,” to steal a phrase from our buddy, Rick Spielman. 

In straightforward terms: he’s well below the recent first-round baseline in a lot of the areas that matter most. And even though it’s still September, it’s still a troubling development because this isn’t supposed to be Manning’s developmental warm-up season.

He threw 395 passes a year ago. He has played in big games, started a full season in the SEC and entered 2026 with the expectation that his last name and another year of experience would all but rubber-stamp him as the first-overall pick.

And it’s worth acknowledging the pressure that comes with all of that. Ran Carthon made the point on our “With the First Pick” podcast that Arch is dealing with more pressure than Peyton did, and probably more than Eli, too. Peyton had to live up to being a potential No. 1 pick. Eli had to do that while also being Peyton’s younger brother. Arch gets both of those things, plus a Hall of Fame grandfather, two Super Bowl-winning uncles and a 24/7 social-media cycle dissecting everything he does. That doesn’t excuse the inconsistency, but when Manning looks like he’s pressing, it’s hard to pretend that context doesn’t matter.

So far, though, the play hasn’t matched those expectations. Manning is near the bottom in yards per attempt, average depth of target, passing grade and EPA per dropback. At the same time, he’s near the top in time to throw – and that’s the disconnect: he’s holding the ball like a quarterback hunting big plays, but the results look like one of the least aggressive passing attacks in the group.

The year-to-year comparison is worth looking at, too, because not everything has gotten worse.

This table gets to the part that should keep anyone from overreacting after just three games: for the stretches of indecisiveness and bouts of inaccuracy, Manning isn’t playing reckless football. His turnover-worthy play rate has improved from 3.5% last season to 2.5% so far, which puts him in line with those recent first-rounders. His big-time throw rate has improved as well. (And yes, it’s worth noting that his big-time throw rate would be even better if not for two mind-boggling drops by his receivers in the Ohio State game.)

So this isn’t a “sound the alarm” situation; Manning isn’t repeatedly putting the ball in harm’s way, and he isn’t turning pressure into sacks at an alarming rate. His 14.8% pressure-to-sack rate is actually better than the first-round median. In English, that means he’s doing a good job of avoiding sacks when pressured, and it’s one of the few areas where his current play compares favorably to those recent first-round QBs.

The problem is what happens on all those other dropbacks.

One of the toughest things to reconcile when watching Manning — and the numbers confirm it — might be his 3.19-second average time to throw and his 8.3-yard average depth of target. Among the recent first-round QBs with available data, Manning is tied for the longest time to throw, but all that extra time isn’t leading to more explosive plays downfield.

Consider some of the recent first-round QBs who also held the ball for more than three seconds: Anthony Richardson had an 11.5-yard average depth of target, Justin Fields was at 10.4, Kenny Pickett was at 9.7 and Caleb Williams at 9.2.

Manning is taking just as long — or longer — to get the ball out, but his average target is just 8.3 yards downfield. And the tape confirms what the data are telling you.

The issue isn’t simply that he’s holding the ball. It’s why. This season, Manning has too often looked like he’s pressing, even from clean pockets. There are snaps where intermediate throws are available and he either doesn’t see them clearly or doesn’t trust what he’s seeing to rip it. Once the pocket gets muddy, the problems often get worse.

That’s why time-to-throw matters. Holding the ball isn’t inherently bad — Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams all showed that extending plays can still lead to explosive offense. But there has to be a payoff. 

The problem for Manning is that the extra time isn’t producing enough of those plays.

There is also an important lesson in the recent first-round history: college statistics aren’t destiny. Zach Wilson finished his final season with a 95.5 PFF passing grade, averaged 11.0 yards per attempt and threw 33 touchdowns against three interceptions. None of that guaranteed NFL success.

The opposite is true, too. Justin Herbert averaged only 8.0 yards per attempt in his final season, Jordan Love threw 17 interceptions and Anthony Richardson completed just 53% of his passes. Their college resumes, for different reasons, had obvious blemishes, but NFL teams were still willing to bet on the physical tools.

That’s why Manning, who also has the benefit of being a Manning,  doesn’t need to suddenly turn into 2019 Burrow. But at some point, the production has to start looking more like a first-round quarterback.

It’s also why the rest of 2026 matters so much. 

We’ve seen quarterbacks make enormous late-college-career leaps and completely change how the league viewed them. Burrow wasn’t considered a first-round prospect entering his final season at LSU. Daniels wasn’t viewed as a future No. 2 pick before his second year there. Cam Ward entered his final college season with a statistical profile that looked more like a Day 3 selection than a future No. 1 pick. In the end, all three changed the conversation.

And that’s the assignment for Manning now. 

A modest step forward is a step in the right direction, but it’s also probably not enough. In August I wrote that the goal was for the late-2025 version of Manning — the one who was more comfortable in the pocket, threw with better anticipation and created more consistently — to become a weekly theme in ’26. It’s early, but so far it hasn’t happened yet. If he’s going to look like a first-round quarterback by December, the next two months need to look a lot different than the first three games.

That means creating more explosive plays while continuing to avoid turnovers. It means getting more out of the extra time he holds the ball. And it means stacking good games from one week to the next, not sandwiching ho-hum performances around huge games that leave us wondering which version of Arch will show up.

The good news for Manning is that there’s a lot of football left. Three games don’t define a quarterback, especially one with his tools, experience and pedigree. That’s really what the next few months are about. He entered the season with people assuming he’d be the first-overall pick. The more immediate question: Can he start consistently playing like a first-round quarterback?

So far, we don’t have an answer. The rest of the season should give us one.