2026 St. Jude Championship predictions: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy begin Fedex Cup Playoffs

Playoffs?! You want to talk about playoffs?! Yes sir, we do because the postseason is here and it is glorious. The 2026 St. Jude Championship represents the opening dish of the FedEx Cup Playoffs with the top 70 from the regular season standings qualifying for the event held annually at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee.

Daniel Berger is the lone omission among those who made their way into the field as the right hander did not officially commit to the tournament, whittling it down to just 69 men. Those, of course, include Scottie Scheffler, who enters the postseason No. 1 in the season-long race for the fourth time in the last five seasons even without multiple titles under his belt.

Winless since his first start of 2026, the world No. 1 looks to put an end to his drought and to those who may be doubting his closing abilities. Scheffler has finished runner up five times this year, something only Cameron Young and Ernie Els have done since 2000.

The Texan makes his return to Memphis as does the world No. 2 Rory McIlroy. Skipping the tournament last season and pondering the same move this year, the Masters champion decided to give it a go this week as he makes his first non-major start in the U.S. since the Memorial in June.

2026 FedEx Cup Playoffs standings and schedule: Format, purse and prize money breakdown

Patrick McDonald

With a lighter workload in 2026, McIlroy hopes to garner some momentum and make a run at a record fourth FedEx Cup crown in a few weeks’ time at East Lake Golf Club. Even though he has completed just 10 PGA Tour events in 2026, McIlroy is firmly inside the top-30 cutoff for the postseason finale at No. 12 in the standings.

Speaking of cut-off points, the name of the game at TPC Southwind is the top 50 as those who finish inside that mark will qualify for the BMW Championship. With changes coming for the 2028 PGA Tour season, players will feel a sigh of relief making sure they are in next week’s field and next year’s signature events, which comes as an added bonus for qualifying for the BMW Championship.

Notable names outside that mark include Max Homa, Sungjae Im and Jordan Spieth, who still has a realistic chance to earn his place at the BMW Championship even without a top-10 finish to his name this season. PGA Tour rookie Jackson Koivun snuck into the playoffs thanks in large part because of his win at the 3M Open. He will require at least a two-way T7 finish to give himself a chance at extending his season, according to the PGA Tour.

2026 FedEx Cup Playoffs bubble

2026 St. Jude Championship schedule

Dates: Aug. 13-16
Location: TPC Southwind — Memphis, Tennessee
Par: 70 | Yardage: 7,288 | Architect: Ron Prichard
Purse: $20 million

2026 St. Jude Championship field, odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Scottie Scheffler (9/2)
• Rory McIlroy (10-1): As mentioned above, it has been a light, light season for McIlroy up to this point. He has three postseason events out in front of him in addition to a DP World Tour schedule that should take him close to the new year. The Masters champion finished close to dead last the last time he traversed TPC Southwind in 2024, making his absence last season not all that surprising. He arrives with two top-10 finishes in his last six starts as an odd round here or there (typically Saturday) has gotten away from him and left him chasing.
• Cameron Young (18-1)
• Xander Schauffele (18-1)
• Tommy Fleetwood (20-1): It was this time last season when Fleetwood found heartbreak after heartbreak. The Englishman fell short at the Travelers Championship and then this tournament as he watched Justin Rose and J.J. Spaun duke it out in a playoff. He made amends a couple weeks later at the Tour Championship. Fleetwood comes into this week as well-rounded as they come with strong showings at The Open and the Memorial in recent months. It feels like another win is on the horizon given his quality.
• Sam Burns (21-1): Speaking of a win being on the horizon, the same can be said of Burns. He tied Scheffler for the lowest cumulative score to par in major championships at 20 under as he entered the final round of The Open with the solo lead. Although that was not meant to be, he now eyes his first win since the WGC-Dell Match Play in 2023. Every factor seems to be converging for him with course history (two top-five finishes in last five starts) and current form (three top-five finishes in last five tournaments) coming together.
• Matt Fitzpatrick (22-1)
• Ludvig Åberg (24-1): All in all, it has been a sleepy summer for the Swede, especially compared to the early portion of his season. Åberg arrived on the first page of the leaderboard at The Open in the form of a T9 — his first top-10 finish since the PGA Championship. His ball striking was much improved at Royal Birkdale, and it is that area that needs to continue to perform if he is to grab the first playoff victory of his career.
• Collin Morikawa (27-1)
• Patrick Cantlay (28-1)
• Hideki Matsuyama (30-1): While many players have taken time off since the final major championship, Matsuyama has done the opposite. The 2024 St. Jude Championship winner has played four straight weeks heading into the postseason and for good reason as Matsuyama has managed his game exceptionally well the last month. He rides a wave of five straight top-15 finishes into Memphis thanks to some increased accuracy off the tee and increased confidence on the greens.

2026 St. Jude Championship picks

Who will win the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 17 golf majors heading into the weekend, including the past five Masters, and find out.