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Ben Solak
Multiple Authors
The NFL season is but six days away — we’ve almost made it! And as such, we’ve almost talked about these NFL teams and previewed this NFL season in as many ways as we can. Almost.
Today, I have for you my yearly look at 32 X factors — one for each team. X factor players, as I understand them, are players who can dramatically swing the season with their individual play. A helpful way of defining an X factor is “if this team has a surprisingly great year, I’m certain that this one player had a great season.” X factors are the straw in the wind — the way they bend is the way everything will go.
Last year’s X factors featured Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III (Super Bowl MVP, I dunno if you heard), Cowboys WR George Pickens and Patriots WR Stefon Diggs. It’s not just the good ones who are winners, unfortunately. Bills WR Keon Coleman, Steelers OT Broderick Jones and Buccaneers LB SirVocea Dennis were also key X factors … whose season went the wrong way.
Finding an X factor for each team is as much about what they aren’t as what they are. Here are my self-imposed X factor restrictions, which force us to talk about players who we wouldn’t otherwise touch on in such detail.
No quarterbacks. Obviously, an elite season at quarterback will have a bigger impact on the team than any other position. Same with a disastrous one. Some quarterback X factors are certainly bigger than others (What if Kyler Murray is lights-out in Minnesota? What if Bryce Young falls apart in Carolina?). But all quarterbacks are huge factors. Which means none of them made this list.
No coaches. See above quarterback explanation. All coaches are X factors, so we’re not going to talk about them here.
No rookies. Every team will experience a huge and surprising leap if it drafts Puka Nacua in the fifth round. I think Bryce Lance is a huge X factor for the Saints, but there isn’t much to say about it besides “drafting a starting wide receiver on Day 3 is really helpful.” Safely assume I think every rookie your team drafted (and even a few of the UDFAs) are X factors, and read on.
Now that we’ve defined what an X factor is (and isn’t), we can get into the nitty-gritty. There were a few good candidates for each team, but I had to land on one per franchise (or cheat and do two — which I did). Here they are, starting with a desperately needed breakout in Arizona.
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
NFC WEST
There are only a few players on the Cardinals’ roster who I’m confident are above-average starters. On defense, there is safety Budda Baker and edge rusher Josh Sweat, and tight end Trey McBride and wide receiver Michael Wilson on offense. With rookie and third pick Jeremiyah Love, a prospect I loved coming out of Notre Dame, we are close to a third offensive player — all skill position guys.
So imagine if Harrison can take a leap under a new offensive coaching staff. New head coach Mike LaFleur, a branch off the old Sean McVay tree, comes from an offense that doesn’t typically enjoy a traditional X-receiver — 6-foot-4, big frame, running all sorts of sideline routes. As such, it’s fair to expect the Cardinals to move Harrison around the formation more than he has been to this point in his career. Over the past two seasons, 78.6% of Harrison’s targets have come from out wide (24th among 106 wide receivers), and he has averaged 13.1 air yards per target (17th). Some easier targets from the slot and in motion would be welcome for a player whose superpower in college was route running.
The Cardinals’ quarterback play figures to be rough this season, but hits on Love and Harrison could give Arizona such a deluge of playmakers that its offense remains dangerous even with below-average quarterback play. And if they end up investing by drafting a quarterback high in 2027, a Harrison breakout would make the bedrock for that quarterback’s development all the richer.
The Rams’ defense will be elite with Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald, Kobie Turner and Byron Young up front and Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson, Kam Curl and Quentin Lake in the secondary. These are good players at key positions with a few elite players to boot. I believe in this group immensely.
But if something goes wrong, the linebacker spot feels like the culprit. I expect the Rams to play a ton of dime personnel and other one-linebacker packages as they strive to get their best 11 on the field. They feel great about Landman, whom they signed to a one-year deal in March 2025 and gave a three-year extension eight months later after he quickly developed into a starting linebacker. Sometimes, those breakouts work great (Zack Baun). Sometimes, they can be total fool’s gold.
In an effort to hide from the Rams’ pass rush and avoid their new cornerbacks room, I expect offenses to get the ball out quickly to backs and tight ends — a passing attack that will challenge Landman in coverage and force him to tackle in space. Another avenue to attack this loaded Rams’ defense: get in heavy personnel and run the air out of the ball. Again, Landman will be the first line of defense for finding run stops and TFLs to give his pass rush opportunities to shine.
I’m a Landman believer. But if 2025 was a magical season whose heights cannot be recaptured, opposing offenses will quickly put him under the microscope as the one Achilles’ heel on the Rams’ defense.
I loved the Evans signing. Getting Kyle Shanahan the type of receiver he had lacked since becoming the head coach of the 49ers — a big, long, downfield ball-winner, short-yardage specialist and red zone mismatch — opened new and exciting possibilities in the offense. Evans is also much better on the classic 49ers routes than he’s given credit for. Among all receivers over the past two seasons, Evans is third in yards per route run (6.1) on deep, in-breaking routes. His 6-foot-5, 230-pound frame is hard to miss in the middle of the field.
But Evans is 33 years old, so managing his snaps is important. Once Ricky Pearsall was ruled out for the season because of a right UCL tear, I was worried Evans would take too many snaps this season, especially coming off a hamstring injury in 2025. And then Evans started to miss time in camp: a quad strain in late July, then some talk about groin issues. Worrisome drumbeats for an older receiver in August.
I still really like the blend of skills in a 49ers receivers room featuring Evans, rookie De’Zhaun Stribling, and veterans Deebo Samuel Sr. and Demarcus Robinson. But if Evans cannot stay on the field or is absent of twitch when he’s on it, there’s not enough downfield playmaking in the group (unless Stribling is the Offensive Rookie of the Year). The floor for any Shanahan-led offense is very high, but the ceiling this year is set by Evans.
The Seahawks’ stars in the defensive backfield — cornerback Devon Witherspoon and safeties Nick Emmanwori and Julian Love — are well-known. The key departures of cornerback Riq Woolen (Eagles) and safety Coby Bryant (Bears) challenge their depth, especially when lighter personnel such as dime is needed. The plan was for their second-round pick, safety Bud Clark, to replace Bryant in the starting lineup, but Clark suffered a broken right ankle in the second preseason game and is out for the season.
One of the young players who must rise to fill the accumulating voids is Okada, the fourth-year safety out of Montana State. An undrafted free agent who worked his way up the depth chart, Okada had to start multiple stretches last season when Love and Bryant went down because of injury. He proved effective at playing with anticipation and physicality to account for his unspectacular range. Okada was what you want from a depth player — capable of doing his job and smart enough to play within himself.
Now, he’ll need to start. The Seahawks won the Super Bowl thanks to their defense last year, and this defensive structure only works with safeties who can click quickly and close on the run for minimal gains. Okada looked the part last year in limited action, but the challenge this time is greater.
NFC EAST
The Cowboys entered training camp with a competition at left tackle between Guyton and Nate Thomas, a 2024 seventh-rounder who had impressed in Guyton’s absence last season. Guyton didn’t just win that competition — he won it so fast that the Cowboys stopped splitting reps only a few days into camp, and eventually traded Thomas to the Texans on cut-down day.
Guyton has the physical tools of a quality starting left tackle, but he has suffered mental lapses and taken easy penalties. Since he entered the league in 2024, Guyton is third among tackles in penalties per game (0.84). He has missed time because of ankle, shoulder and knee injuries. Now, he needs to string together consistent, mistake-free play.
A leap from Guyton would benefit the entire Cowboys offensive line. Guyton and right tackle Terence Steele warrant some chip help in pass protection, but it’s hard to cater to both sides of the line. If Guyton can settle into consistent play against quality edges, the Cowboys can spend more resources helping Steele — or even get five out into the concept, which is where top-flight processor Dak Prescott is at his best. The Cowboys have all the pieces of an elite offense save for a tackle they can trust, and signs point to Guyton inching closer to becoming that player.
0:55
‘The Dallas Cowboys are coming!’ Schefter issues warning to Stephen A.
The Giants’ run defense was famously poor last season — 29th in EPA per rush allowed and 31st in explosive rush rate allowed. Then, they traded away elite nose tackle Dexter Lawrence II — eek!
Of course, Lawrence was not fully himself in 2025, and was not single-handedly solving the problem. But even as the Giants welcomed a new coaching staff (John Harbaugh and defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson) and turned over their linebackers room (Arvell Reese and Tremaine Edmunds), they failed to make a big splash along the interior defensive line. Veterans Reader and Shelby Harris are slated to start inside for Big Blue.
Reader was once a premier run-stuffing nose tackle in this league, but his numbers are down over the past two seasons. His stop rate of 8.6% last season — the percentage of tackles that stopped the run for negative expected points, per NFL Next Gen Stats — was his lowest single-season mark since 2018. His stuff rate of 1.1% — the percentage of tackles that were for zero or fewer yards — was the lowest of his career. The splashy impact against the run is waning for the 32-year-old.
How many snaps does Reader have in him at his age, and can he achieve more impact against the run in a new defensive system in New York? Without a renaissance Reader season, I’m worried that we’ll see another season in which the Giants’ defense is too easy to run on for its pass rush to really matter.
There are many directions to go with the Eagles. Dontayvion Wicks is the clear WR2 after never really cracking WR4 with the Packers. Can he be a consistent veteran presence in A.J. Brown‘s absence? Edge Jonathan Greenard is stepping in for Jaelan Phillips, who was a huge force multiplier for the defense last season. A pec injury forced Greenard to sit out all of training camp, which begs the question: Is he ready to go in the new system?
But I’m circling the duo of Dickerson and Jurgens here. The Eagles’ left guard and center — both in the top five highest-paid players at their respective positions — were shells of themselves last season because of lingering injuries. Jurgens had back issues so intense that he had to go to Colombia for stem-cell treatment. Dickerson had a right meniscus tear, a back injury and multiple ankle injuries. He, too, joined Jurgens in Colombia for stem-cell therapy.
The Eagles’ running game suffered dramatically as Philadelphia’s two core interior players labored with nagging injuries. On running back carries (i.e., not tush pushes and other QB runs), the Eagles averaged only 1.2 yards before contact per carry after producing 2.0 the season previous — almost half as good of a run-blocking unit as it had been.
No matter the new schemes and clever tricks of offensive coordinator Sean Mannion, the Eagles’ offense was Super Bowl-caliber only when the running game was shredding behind an elite offensive line. Dickerson and Jurgens must truly be healthy if we’re to see that version of the Eagles again, and that makes them Philly’s biggest X factor of all.
One of the more surprising moves of the 2026 offseason was the Commanders releasing starting center Tyler Biadasz. He was older (28) and approaching the end of his deal, sure … but they didn’t get much cap relief from releasing him, and his play was not so deteriorated that he was unplayable. Even more surprising was the Commanders’ lack of a plan to account for his release. They moved veteran interior swingman Allegretti to the pivot, drafted a sixth-round rookie and called it a day.
Allegretti has mostly been a backup since entering the league in 2019, and only 171 of his 2,432 career snaps (7.0%) have been at center. Snapping the ball and getting the hand back in pass protection is one thing. In a new offense under offensive coordinator David Blough, the center is responsible for helping the quarterback set protections and point runs in what can be a complex and wordy operation. Allegretti needed time in this offense, but he missed most of camp because of a calf strain. He’s back and ready to start Week 1, but is he ready to start Week 1?
There will be lots of wrinkles for the Commanders to iron out in their new offense, but procedural issues such as snap counts and clean exchanges can cripple an offense. Allegretti needs a smooth, rapid transition to center for the Commanders to get the ball rolling on their offensive evolution this season.
NFC NORTH
I did not think I would be writing a blurb about Trapilo in anticipation of Week 1. Trapilo ruptured his patellar tendon (brutal injury) in the wild-card round of the playoffs about nine months ago. When general manager Ryan Poles first set the table for Trapilo’s recovery at the NFL combine in February, he said he would expect Trapilo to “miss most of the year.” Yet here we are: Trapilo was activated off the physically unable to perform list Aug. 16 and started practicing.
In 2025, Trapilo was far from a perfect left tackle, mostly because he was a rookie moving to the left after a college career at right tackle, but he was the best option in Chicago, with the athleticism that creates a rosy developmental projection. The knee injury might have hampered that athletic ability, especially given how quickly he has gotten back into his pads. I am fascinated to see if he still moves with the same quickness and power that he did last season.
Chicago was blessed with great offensive line health for much of last season, and that excellent line features right tackle Darnell Wright, right guard Jonah Jackson and left guard Joe Thuney. Trapilo does not need to be an elite player to single-handedly power the Bears’ front. But if the left tackle spot becomes a liability, all those talented players at other spots will matter less when pressure consistently comes off Caleb Williams‘ blindside. By giving the Bears functional play at left tackle, Trapilo can ensure the line picks up where it left off last season.
1:42
Why Orlovsky is skeptical of Bears’ chances to win NFC
The current state of the Lions’ secondary is as dire as there is in the league. With both star safeties on the PUP list to start the season (Kerby Joseph because of a chronic knee issue, Brian Branch rehabbing a torn right Achilles), the expected starting safeties are veteran Chuck Clark (31 years old) and Avonte Maddox (30). It’s worth not just emphasizing their age, but the fact that neither was a starter last season. At corner, veteran D.J. Reed (29) still owns one spot, while the release of Terrion Arnold opens the door for Ya-Sin (30), a career rotational player, to start in Week 1.
The Lions will become the first defense since the 2011 Steelers to start four defensive backs aged 29 or older in Week 1, and only the ninth defense to do it this century. This doesn’t disqualify their defensive backfield from playing well, of course — but it’s not like this is their ideal lineup. Clark is a journeyman vet. Maddox was a nickel with the Eagles who flipped to safety only in Detroit. Ya-Sin was supposed to be a backup. The experience of the group might prove a plus, but I’m worried about the collective athleticism.
If the Lions struggle for speed and explosive plays in the secondary, DC Kelvin Sheppard will likely pivot to more zone coverages and rely on his rush to win passing downs for him. That’s all well and good, but a lack of team speed matters once passes are complete and yards after the catch are available. Also, you will have to play man at some point — and when you do, Ya-Sin will be targeted. Since he entered the league, Ya-Sin is 12th among all corners in defensive penalties per coverage snap, though he was also ninth in average separation to targeted receivers, according to Next Gen Stats’ tracking data and coverage model. He needs to be just as sticky with fewer flags if the Lions’ secondary will be competitive.
I’ve heard enough breakout hype in enough offseasons about Van Ness that I’m not going to believe it until I see it. But there is a lot of excitement out of Green Bay for Van Ness!
The Packers anticipate playing without Micah Parsons for at least the first six weeks of the season as he returns from a torn left ACL. Van Ness must give Green Bay a three-down presence as a penetrator who creates negative plays. I’m not sure where those negatives would come from otherwise. He has all the physical tools of a highly disruptive player — strong, quick and long with inside/out versatility — but the pieces have yet to come together. Over his career, he has a pressure rate of 10.2% (the average for a league edge rusher is 12.7%) and a QB hit rate of 4.2% — right on league average. Most of these snaps were as a rotational player, too. Now that Rashan Gary and Kingsley Enagbare are gone, Van Ness will have to take a higher percentage of snaps this season.
Even when Parsons returns, the Packers are a confusing defense with an elite safety duo but poor corner play. Jonathan Gannon is a chameleon defensive coordinator, and what he’ll run with Green Bay in his first year is unknown. What we can say with some certainty is this: No matter how the secondary plays or what the scheme is, opposing offenses will throw chips and double-teams at Parsons until someone else on Green Bay’s front punishes them for it. Van Ness is not just the first candidate to do that — he might be the only realistic one.
The Vikings had to create cap relief this offseason. They reworked their deals for running back Aaron Jones Sr. and tight end T.J. Hockenson; they released defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave; and they traded away veteran edge rusher Jonathan Greenard. But the plan was always to make some room at edge rusher after the 2024 first-round selection of Turner.
The lightbulb turned on for Turner last season, and it was expressed in his quick first step. Turner had one quick pressure in the first 10 weeks of the 2025 season — a quick pressure is a pressure in under 2.5 seconds, as measured by Next Gen Stats. In the final eight weeks of the season, he had 10 such pressures. When Turner can fire off the ball and beat a tackle to the corner, he forces the quarterback to step up in the pocket, a decision that compromises pocket integrity. It allows a blitzing linebacker to detonate the back right into the quarterback’s lap, or lets Andrew Van Ginkel convert to an interior rush from the other side and affect the quarterback’s throwing arm.
The Vikings’ defense is in a huge state of transition as it fields multiple rookie defensive tackles and enters its first season without Harrison Smith since 2011 (probably, he still might come back for Year 15). Brian Flores’ top-flight unit might take a step back in overall efficiency, but it can still be an elite pressure and takeaways team if the pass rush and blitz plan remain sharp, and Turner is the fulcrum on which that game swings. If he continues winning fast game over game, the Vikings will remain disruptive.
NFC SOUTH
It’s admittedly tough to find an X factor for the Falcons, who seem already stuck in quarterback hell because of the poor camp of Tua Tagovailoa and questionable health of Michael Penix Jr. Running back Bijan Robinson, wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts Sr. have take-over-a-game talent, but I’m not sure how much that trio can do with the current state of the quarterback position.
Instead, I’ll turn to the defense. I called Dorlus the breakout Falcon of last season given the seven sacks he delivered over the back half of the year. Atlanta needs that breakout to be real. Second-year pass rusher Jalon Walker is out after suffering an ACL tear in his left knee in training camp, and fellow second-year pass rusher James Pearce Jr. is suspended for the first eight games of the season for violating the league’s personal conduct policy when he was arrested on domestic violence charges in February.
If Dorlus isn’t the disruptive looper and crasher this season that he was last season, I just can’t find where the pass rush comes from in Atlanta — even with its cut-down day trade for Bears defensive tackle Gervon Dexter Sr. Defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich will scheme up plenty of games to account for his lack of edge-rushing talent, and Dorlus — a long tweener with a great ability to get skinny through gaps — will become the featured piece of third-and-long designs. He doesn’t need to be perfect, but he (and Ulbrich) need to be enough to keep the pass rush lively, while the young secondary becomes the new strength of the Falcons’ defense.
A team’s biggest X factor isn’t always its biggest unknown, but in the Panthers’ case, the titles are shared. Brooks, the 46th pick in the 2024 NFL draft, has played in three of a possible 35 Panthers games through his first two seasons as a pro. He has nine carries for 22 yards (and three receptions for 23 yards).
For various stretches of the past two seasons, the Panthers have had impressive rushing attacks. The Chuba Hubbard breakout came in Year 1 under Dave Canales as Brooks continued rehabbing from the ACL he tore in college. Brooks missed all of the 2025 season after he tore that ACL again in Week 14 of the 2024 season; that’s when Rico Dowdle shined as a running mate to Hubbard. The Panthers’ offensive system clearly can set up backs for success, and Brooks — at least, the last healthy version of Brooks at Texas — has the explosiveness to really benefit from this environment in a way Hubbard and Dowdle could not.
The Panthers appear to have a budding star in second-year receiver Tetairoa McMillan, and Jalen Coker is a fine running mate. But Carolina desperately needs another explosive weapon to emerge on offense if it is going to successfully build around quarterback Bryce Young’s skill set. Brooks was drafted to be the dominant drumbeat as a 20-plus-carry player and the home run threat on quick passes and screens that Canales has always schemed up well. If we finally get to see the player who has been promised, it’ll move the needle on Carolina’s season.
No matter which way you sliced it, the Saints had one of the three worst rushing attacks in football last season: success rate (29th), EPA per rush (30th) and explosive rush rate (32nd). The first half of the year, when center Erik McCoy and backs Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller were healthy, was bad. The back half of the year, when quarterback Tyler Shough was creating more explosive plays in the passing game but was stuck handing off to backups Evan Hull and Audric Estime, was also bad.
With McCoy on the mend and veteran free agent David Edwards playing left guard, the Saints’ offensive line could take a big leap in 2026. Second-year tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. and third-year tackle Taliese Fuaga are ready for it. But Etienne needs to deliver on his end of the bargain — a four-year, $48 million deal that made him, at the time, a top-10 running back in terms of salary.
Etienne was largely an average back in Jacksonville. Over the past three seasons, he has averaged 3.9 yards per carry (RBs average 4.5) with a 36% success rate (RBs average 40.4%). He has endured scheme changes, terrible offensive lines and fended off committee backfields. He also has value as a receiver. But the Saints need him to be a quality veteran back behind what they expect to be an ascending young line as they build a good offensive nucleus for Shough to develop. If the running game repeats its 2025 woes, the Saints will be one-dimensional and accordingly unable to take a leap.
Remember Kancey? The Buccaneers’ 2023 first-round pick was the perfect running mate for Vita Vea through his first two seasons as a pro. Quick as a wink but still sturdy against the run, Kancey’s upfield penetration was a featured piece of Todd Bowles’ movement-heavy defensive front. When he was injured last season in Week 2 and absent every game until Week 18, the lack of pop in the Buccaneers’ pass rush was palpable.
In 2024, Kancey was 15th among all defensive tackles in pressure rate (via Next Gen Stats), just behind Vea. But it’s not about how often he won — it’s how he won. He was sixth in get-off, a measure of how quickly he got across the line. His time to pressure was 2.77 seconds (average for defensive tackles is 3.05, a big gap). Kancey is a quick winner who can make life easier on the rest of his defensive line. He’s a ceiling-raiser — if healthy.
The Buccaneers have invested heavily at all three levels of their defense. Rueben Bain Jr. is now the featured edge in a defensive end room that’s also seeing David Walker (2025 fourth-rounder) return from injury. Elijah Roberts, who broke out in Kancey’s absence last year, enters Year 2 as a valuable inside/out rusher. If Kancey can have the same impact on the defense that he had before, but with a deeper and more talented room, the Buccaneers’ pass rush can suddenly flip from a weakness to a strength — and with it, the entire defense.
AFC SOUTH
If Texans second-year wide receiver Jayden Higgins had not suffered a torn ACL in a joint practice with the Raiders, he almost certainly would have been the name here. But six days after the injury, Houston acquired Boutte in a trade with the Patriots. And just like that, Boutte is an X factor instead.
A Boutte deep target was just about the best throw in football last season. Boutte led the league in first-down-plus-touchdown rate per target at 57.4% — in fact, that number would have been second only to 2023 Brandon Aiyuk over the past five seasons (minimum 200 routes). As a vertical route specialist — 49.0% of his routes were vertical routes, seventh among all receivers — he was not frequently targeted. But when he was targeted, he came through for Drake Maye.
How Boutte’s verticality folds into a Texans passing game that wants deep-breaking routes from its receivers is unclear. That was the excitement around Higgins — how well he could snap off routes at his size — and that has always been the magic of Nico Collins. It will likely be the case that Boutte is not the every-down WR2 to start the season, as Xavier Hutchinson and Jaylin Noel retain roles. But if the Texans want to be serious Super Bowl contenders, and that is the expectation in Houston, they need a dangerous secondary pass catcher after Collins. Boutte has some growing to do, but if he can become a higher-volume player with a more diverse route tree, he’ll keep the Texans’ offense on track for that push.
I waffled between Walley and fellow corner Sauce Gardner because Gardner’s return to elite corner form is another critical domino in the Colts’ make-or-break season under Shane Steichen and Chris Ballard. But even if Gardner isn’t elite, he will still be a good CB1, and Charvarius Ward is a strong CB2 (when healthy) opposite him. Walley might be the final puzzle piece in a secondary that can play man coverage with just about anyone.
Walley was a 2025 third-rounder out of Minnesota and a camp darling before a torn ACL in joint practices ended his rookie season before it even began. Sized for the slot, Walley steps into a role that Kenny Moore II held in Indianapolis for almost a decade. But after training camp and preseason action, he looks like he can be a sticky cover man who allows defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo to call more man coverage to feature the strength of his back seven — the cornerbacks.
The importance of these corners cannot be overstated. The Colts’ pass rush is worryingly thin, and they might start two rookie linebackers side-by-side behind that defensive line. If the corners can’t make impact plays in coverage, Indianapolis’ defense will have too many holes to cover up, and it will be forced to rely heavily on an offense that needs time to get healthy as quarterback Daniel Jones and receivers Alec Pierce and Josh Downs return to health.
I’m going to call Hunter an X factor until I feel confident in what he is — and isn’t — capable of. I’m not close yet on either side of the ball. I thought Hunter was a better defensive back than wide receiver coming out of Colorado, but Hunter had only 154 snaps on defense before an injury to the LCL in his right knee last season — not nearly enough to evaluate him. And, given his hybrid training camps, it was reasonable to expect him to be slow out of the gate.
It looks now that Hunter will spend far more time on defense, where the Jaguars are deep (Montaric Brown, Jourdan Lewis and Jarrian Jones) but lack a true CB1. If Hunter, who would have been the highest-drafted cornerback in NFL history if he were just a regular corner, can settle into that role, the Jaguars will have two cornerstone pieces at edge rusher (Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker) and another at corner — the premium positions.
Hunter is particularly interesting as an X factor corner because he can play the ball and generate turnovers. I think he will risk some feast-or-famine play that might need smoothing over in the years to come, but in a zone-heavy approach under coordinator Anthony Campanile, it’s reasonable to expect him to quickly be among the league’s best in anticipating combinations and jumping routes
With Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers and Brian Thomas Jr. still in hand on offense, Hunter’s impact on the other side of the ball might be minimal. But consider how big of an X factor he’ll be if one of the three is lost because of a big injury, and suddenly a first-round talent is coming off the bench to fill some of the snaps. It’s all still theoretical, but Hunter’s potential impact is sky-high.
1:29
Why Travis Hunter should play cornerback full time for Jags
I can see the diamond in the rough in Latham. He is 6-foot-5 and 340 pounds with great length, and those dimensions allow him to be effective despite imperfect technique and poor leverage. He has had a rough go of it through two seasons — he switched from college right tackle to NFL left tackle as a rookie, then back to right tackle in his second season, during which a hip injury hampered his play — but there’s a functional starter there in his game.
The Titans need to find it now. Current projections have Tennessee starting Fernando Carmona, a fifth-round rookie, at right guard. Center Austin Schlottmann is a career backup. Left tackle Dan Moore Jr. and left guard Peter Skoronski have their roles locked down, but it’s unlikely that either Schlottmann or Carmona will become needle-moving contributors on the line this season. It’s make-or-break for Latham, who likely will not get a fourth season at tackle if he cannot put the pieces together.
At his best, Latham can be a road grader in the running game, and a year removed from his hip injury should alleviate some of his balance and leverage concerns. A stronger season in pass protection would give Cam Ward a better pocket from which he can develop the subtler skills of pocket management. If the goal in Tennessee is the development of Ward, the player to watch is Latham.
AFC WEST
Moss is my lone repeat X factor from last year. But the Broncos’ defense goes as far as Moss goes for one reason: He is the most targeted cornerback in football. Moss saw a league-leading 116 targets last season as opposing offenses (rightfully) worked away from Pat Surtain II on the opposite side of the formation. In 2024, Moss was third with 102, and he missed three games because of injury!
Any corner who sees that level of attention can swing games with his play. Thanks in part to a healthier 2025, Moss improved across the board. He more than doubled his passes defended (from 8 to 19) and saw his completion percentage allowed fall from 63.7% to 53.4% as a result. Moss has a suffocating presence in man coverage because of his speed and length, and the Broncos will need that this season as they anticipate a diminished pass rush given the free agent departure of John Franklin-Myers and the potential suspension of Jonathon Cooper, who was placed on the NFL’s commissioner exempt list last week.
Moss is in a contract year, and any statistical look beyond his volume stats, which are disproportionately high playing on the opposite side of Surtain, shows him as one of the 32 best starting cornerbacks in the league. A huge payday awaits Moss on the opposite side of a season in which those passes defensed become takeaways; he has only two picks over two seasons despite that enormous target attention. Moss looks and moves like a CB1, and if his production on the ball has another leap in 2025, the Broncos will once again have an elite defense worthy of a Super Bowl run.
I’ve written a lot about Williams at this point; he was also my 2025 breakout player for the Chiefs. But when a team loses 1,500 snaps of cornerback play by trading Trent McDuffie and not extending Jaylen Watson, the young corner it’s betting on becomes really, really important!
On a small sample, Williams was sticky. Next Gen Stats tracking had him with a tight window forced on 34.3% of his targets (seventh among all corners) and an average separation on targets of only 2.3 yards (10th among all corners). Average separation to target is a newer but fairly impressive stat; the three highest-performing corners last season were Quinyon Mitchell, Pat Surtain II and Derek Stingley Jr.. This is a group you want to be in.
Williams isn’t just tight in coverage, but he also creates on the ball. Exactly 20% of his targets ended in a pass defensed or interception, well above the league average for outside corners (14.3%). Again, we’re operating on a small sample here — only 257 coverage snaps. But there’s compelling evidence that Williams isn’t just a sufficient corner, but an impactful one.
Should the Chiefs nail their cornerback transition with Williams and Mansoor Delane, the pressure on the pass rush to improve will be alleviated, as press coverage will delay releases and prolong dropbacks. Williams needs to calibrate his play — he was fifth among all corners in penalties per coverage snap at 3.3% — but that’s a typical learning curve for young players.
1:47
What is the Chiefs’ ceiling this season?
New Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak had one of the most ominous quotes from the preseason while talking about the wide receivers room after the second exhibition game: “We are trying to find someone that is accountable and can help us on Sunday. Still looking.” Woof.
Behind WR1 Tre Tucker, who is a handy player but not the typical three-level threat we see from a team’s WR1, the Raiders have 2025 second-rounder Jack Bech, 2025 fourth-rounder Dont’e Thornton Jr. and free agent signee Jalen Nailor. The splashiest moments in the preseason came from Bech, who was one of the rookies pushed aside by Pete Carroll in the ugly conflict between coaching staff and front office. Bech began the season behind Thornton and broke into the rotation later in the season after Jakobi Meyers was traded and Thornton had proven unprepared for NFL action.
Bech has the sort of dirty-work skill set that should help him get on the field. He blocks well and can take easy targets for big gains while he grows into the finer details of route timing and location that Kubiak demands of his pass catchers. Nailor figures to run with Tucker in two-WR sets early because he’s the big-money free agent, and the Raiders will likely major in 2-TE sets with Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer on the roster. But if Bech can make big plays as the third wideout on the field, he’ll quickly climb the depth chart and give the Raiders the secondary playmaker they desperately need behind Bowers and Tucker.
I wanted to put a left guard in this spot, but it seems as though the Chargers are planning on platooning that position in Week 1 between Kayode Awosika and Trey Pipkins III. “Nothing precludes us from playing them both,” coach Jim Harbaugh said after roster cuts. It’s hard for me to talk myself into either player as a needle-mover, and certainly doubly hard when the team isn’t convinced by either player.
So instead, I picked a wide receiver. Johnston is once again an enormously high-leverage player in the Chargers’ offense. Though much of the fantasy football attention is rightfully on Ladd McConkey, whom I anticipate leading the Chargers in targets, Johnston could benefit most from coordinator Mike McDaniel’s offense.
Johnston is one of the league’s preeminent vertical receivers, and his average speed last season (15.08 mph) was eighth among all receivers, second if we exclusively look at players over 200 pounds. He’s in the same neighborhood with Alec Pierce for route tree and top speed, but Pierce actually catches the football reliably when he gets down there. Johnston’s drop rate isn’t terribly high (3.3% over the past three seasons). It’s the full gamut of poor tracking, poor physicality and poor positioning that makes his deep targets unreliable.
The McDaniel offense is among the league’s best at creating YAC for speedy athletes, and Johnston will benefit from those targets over the middle. But to really unlock a new level of this offense with the big-armed Justin Herbert at the helm, the Chargers need Johnston’s runaway downfield routes to connect. Safeties facing McDaniel’s Dolphins abandoned deep routes to drive on intermediate crossers because Miami couldn’t punish them for it. If Johnston delivers this year, the Chargers will put secondaries in an impossible bind.
AFC NORTH
In 2023, Madubuike had 13 sacks at defensive tackle. Preposterous stuff. A comprehensive list of defensive tackles who had at least 13 sacks in a season over the past decade: Aaron Donald (twice) and Chris Jones (twice). That’s it.
Madubuike’s number understandably regressed in 2024 and into 2025, but his impact was still obvious before a neck injury ended his 2025 campaign. It was so bad that then-head coach John Harbaugh suggested Madubuike’s career might be over. But he’s back and healthy in 2026, which begs the question: What sort of form will he be in? He played over 800 snaps in 2023 and 2024 — serious snap counts for a defensive tackle. Can he sustain that level of involvement on a Ravens defense that’s relying heavily on older players (Roquan Smith, Trey Hendrickson and Marlon Humphrey) and needs splashy play from their front?
Defensive tackle comes into even greater focus when you consider how often new head coach Jesse Minter runs light boxes (fifth-highest light-box rate in football last season). Strong defensive tackle play is a must for teams trying to fit the run from two-high shells, and next to Travis Jones, Madubuike can stuff early-down runs and get the defense to passing downs. There, a deeper bench of rushers can take some of the pressure off him.
I’ve got no clue what sort of form to expect from Madubuike. The closer he can get to returning to his star form, the better chance the Ravens have of fielding a Super Bowl-caliber defense.
Doing a two-for-one here because I don’t care which Bengals second-year linebacker takes a step forward this season. I just need one of them to do so.
Knight (a 2025 second-round pick) feels more likely, in that he was forced to play more frequently out of position last season as an on-ball Sam linebacker. That role should be filled this year by rookie Cashius Howell, leaving Knight more time at stack linebacker beside Carter, who calls the plays. Both rookies started their careers on rocky footing and improved as the season went on, and the Bengals’ brass believes that the defensive tackle play in front of them was untenable, hence the splashy Dexter Lawrence II trade.
But Knight was sixth among all off-ball linebackers in missed tackle rate (14.5%), per Pro Football Reference; Carter was seventh at 13.8%. They weren’t the only problem in Cincinnati, but if they don’t improve their play through contact against NFL rushers, those runs that leak past Lawrence will continue to churn out dirty yardage. The Bengals believe they rebuilt their defense in one year, and the lack of investment at linebacker is their biggest leap of faith. If this group doesn’t improve, all the other moves will help, but the unit as a whole will reach a hard ceiling.
Need me to explain this one?
It’s tough to be confident in the 2026 Browns’ season. As such, a Browns X factor is about the larger picture — and no player fills a bigger part of that frame than Verse. If the Browns avoid (another) disastrous high-profile trade, they need Verse to look the part of a rising star edge rusher, one worthy of trading away Myles Garrett.
On a more microscopic level, the defense that new defensive coordinator Mike Rutenberg brings from Atlanta figures to have more stunts, twists and blitzes than Jim Schwartz’s front ever deployed. Verse’s greatest strength is his ability to collapse pocket integrity and create opportunities for others, and the Rams led the league in stunt rate last year to maximize that trait.
But the Browns lost fellow starting edge rusher Alex Wright to an Achilles tear in camp, an injury that puts a greater burden on Verse to finish his rushes. The next step for Verse is converting his high pressure rate (15.3% by Next Gen Stats’ model, 10th among all edge rushers over the past two seasons) into sacks. Verse’s pressure-to-sack ratio is only 8.4% — fourth lowest among all edge rushers over the same time frame.
The Browns’ defense needs field-flipping plays to create winning environments for their offense, so Verse’s pressures are insufficient. He can deliver the ceiling-raising impact of his predecessor only with a leap forward in sack production. Tough shoes to fill, of course. The last guy set the sack record.
It’s hard to imagine a Steelers offense that is playoff-caliber without an elite running game, given 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers‘ limited style of play in the passing attack. And it’s hard to imagine an elite Steelers running game without a big year from Dowdle, who slots in alongside Jaylen Warren to form one of the most interesting one-two punch backfields in the league.
Dowdle and Warren are capable receivers and sufficient pass protectors, but Warren is strong in both spots. He can be an early-down ball carrier (when paired with Kenny Gainwell, for example), but Dowdle has been the sort of highly physical runner that Najee Harris once was while paired with Warren. Over the past two seasons, Dowdle is ninth in yards per rush and 12th in rushing yards per game despite playing in time shares in two offenses (Dallas, Carolina) over the past two years.
Dowdle is a no-nonsense runner (sixth in success rate over the same time frame) who doesn’t necessarily break tackles and create explosives at the rate of an elite back. But Warren is at his best as a ball carrier when he’s using his fresh legs in relief of a grinder to hit the bigger plays later in a drive. If Dowdle fills his role well behind this Steelers offensive line, which could be the best he has played behind, Pittsburgh has an avenue to defensive victories thanks to a reliable rushing attack that controls the clock and stays ahead of the sticks.
1:12
The defenses fantasy managers need to get in Weeks 1 and 2
AFC EAST
You hear that? That blissful silence? That’s the total absence of any depressing Kincaid injury news.
In 2024, Kincaid suffered a PCL injury to his left knee that never fully recovered. In 2025, he dealt with knee and hamstring issues throughout the season, and Kincaid has said he played on a limited number of snaps even when he was available. He played 368 snaps last season and averaged about 37% of the snaps in the games he played — both the total and rate were well below that of fellow tight ends Dawson Knox and rookie Jackson Hawes.
Kincaid is far more talented than the Bills’ TE3, and a fully healthy year as an intermediate pass catcher and mismatch threat would add a much-needed dimension to this offense. Even across two injury-riddled seasons, Kincaid leads all tight ends in targets per route (27.8%) and is second only to George Kittle in yards per route (2.26). It’s unlikely he retains those rates as his snap count increases. But given how much slot receiver he can play, and how deep the Bills are with Knox and Hawes, a full menu of snaps might include a WR-esque role similar to that of prime Travis Kelce.
If the Bills finally make a run this year, it’ll be thanks to a league-leading offense that has become more dangerous on downfield throws. DJ Moore is a key contributor to that effect, but sometimes the louder call comes from inside the house. A healthy Kincaid season elevates this group even before Moore takes his first snap as a Bill.
It’s hard to get a framework for an X factor in Miami because the Dolphins are — by the admission of their head coach — not really measuring success in wins and losses this year. As such, the X factor is a player who might develop into a core piece of the future Dolphins, thus saving them from spending another draft pick or free agent contract at that position.
So, I’ll take Robinson, who had a strong rookie season in 2024 but took a step back in 2025. Robinson is a speed rusher who needs to win with a wicked first step, and those players can run hot and cold. His get-off remained roughly the same (0.76 seconds in 2024 to 0.81 seconds in 2025), but his quick pressure rate fell from 7.4% to 4.4%.
Robinson was never a starter behind Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips, and when thrust into more early-down work, he struggled because of his lack of size. He has bulked up and had a strong camp and preseason showing, and new defensive coach Jeff Hafley gives him a second opportunity to build on his hot start — this time, with the size and disposition of a three-down player. Should Robinson have the season-long impact that he has teased in flashes, the Dolphins’ young and unproven defense will have at least one cornerstone to build on moving forward.
During the 2025 regular and postseason, the Patriots’ leading pressure player was K’Lavon Chaisson with 67, including 10.5 sacks. In free agency, Chaisson was rewarded with a nice payday from the Commanders.
Chaisson’s running mate on the edge, Harold Landry III, played through a knee injury during the 2025 season and will start the season on the PUP list, which means a mandatory absence for the first four games. Suddenly, the edge defender with the most pass-rush presence last season who is still on the Patriots’ roster for Week 1 is Elijah Ponder, a 2025 UDFA with 18 pressures in just 200 snaps. Second-round rookie Gabe Jacas should help, but he was late to camp after a contract dispute and is behind on learning the defense.
All of these absences converge to place a huge weight on Jones, the versatile edge rusher the Patriots prioritized in free agency over Chaisson and several other options. Jones had a resurgent season with the Ravens last year after a midseason trade from the Titans; his 11.6% pressure rate last season was his career-best number. The Patriots immediately need Jones’ production if they’re going to have a functional pass rush while Jacas gets up to speed and Landry returns to health.
If you haven’t seen Mitchell talk about his lived experience of when he dropped the ball before the goal line on a would-be touchdown in the Rams-Colts game last season — a mistake that phased him out of the lineup and contributed to his midseason trade to the Jets — watch it. It’s an impressive answer from a young player trying to put things back together.
Mitchell has been inconsistent through two years as a pro. Besides the goal-line fumble, there have been drops (5.5% of targets, 97th among 116 receivers) and bad penalties. Used mostly as a vertical target in Indianapolis, Mitchell has more route-running chops than a pure field-stretcher. If he starts catching the ball consistently and protecting it afterward, he’ll earn a three-level role.
The Jets are the right team with which to take that leap. Mitchell has little contention for snaps behind him on the depth chart because of the slow camp for first-round rookie Omar Cooper Jr. In new quarterback Geno Smith, Mitchell has a passer willing to keep firing targets into tight windows to struggling receivers. Smith is an aggressive passer who will give Mitchell chances to win balls with his frame and size, and if Mitchell can string together a few big games, his confidence will grow.
The Jets look like they’re building a strong offense, which could get a young quarterback in 2027, thanks to the selections of Cooper and tight end Kenyon Sadiq alongside the extension for running back Breece Hall. If Mitchell can prove he can be trusted as a WR2, it catapults them into “a quarterback away” on offense. The stakes are high!
