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Dan Graziano
Multiple Authors
Every year around this time, we like to rank the NFL’s divisions against each other. We have a tool that does that — ESPN’s Football Power Index — but the powers that be also ask me to do it, which I take as license to disagree with FPI.
One of my quiet personal obsessions is the idea that, at some point, a division will send all four of its teams to the playoffs in a given year. This has been possible only since 2020, when the NFL expanded the playoff field to seven teams from each conference, and we are 0-for-6. We’ve had divisions in which every team finished with a winning record — most recently last season’s NFC North. But it hasn’t been enough to put all four teams in the postseason.
So far in 2026, we have two divisions in which all four teams have winning records. And if the season ended right now — after the Seahawks lost to the Broncos on Thursday night to kick off Week 6 — all four of the teams in the NFC North would hold playoff spots. So there’s hope, even though at this point the other one of those divisions (AFC North) would have just one playoff team.
Because I’m mildly obsessed with this idea, I use it as a gauge for this exercise. It’s not the only qualification, but I do tend to rate a division higher if it’s close and I believe one has the better chance of pulling off the all-four. That’s a bit of an explanation about the madness behind my method. Here are the rankings for you all to get upset about. Enjoy. (Note: FPI rankings are through Week 5.)
Jump to a division …
AFC: East | West | North | South
NFC: East | West | North | South
1. NFC North
Combined FPI rating: 6.0 (No. 2 of eight)
It was a tough call between this division and the NFC West, which has three teams in the FPI’s top six while this one has only one in the top 10. But the premise here is that we want to know which division has the best chance of landing all four of its teams in the playoffs, and with apologies to the Cardinals, I believe that puts the NFC North up top. This division features three teams (Detroit, Chicago, Green Bay) with high-end offenses but shaky defenses and one team (Minnesota) with the best defense in the league but an offense that’s still putting things together.
At 5-0, the Vikings are still ranked 13th by FPI because of their 26th-ranked offense. But their defensive and special teams FPI both rank No. 1 overall, and if you look at the injury issues they’ve had on offense, it’s not difficult to imagine that unit improving. The Packers are 10th in offensive FPI despite massive offensive line issues and a complete lack of a run game. Those issues feel less likely to improve than Minnesota’s weaknesses, but it’s not out of the question. And the eventual return of edge rusher Micah Parsons should boost Green Bay’s 19th-ranked defense.
Chicago ranks 12th in FPI offense and defense, and it could get quarterback Caleb Williams back from injury in Week 6. Detroit is fourth in offensive FPI and 30th in defensive, and the Lions’ playoff hopes rest on their ability to outscore the teams on their fourth-place schedule. I like their chances.
2. NFC West
Combined FPI rating: 8.8 (No. 1 of eight)
Like everyone else who has assumed since the Myles Garrett trade that the Rams are an unstoppable force, FPI continues to leave me alone on the “Shouldn’t we wait to see it first?” island. There is no way anyone who has watched them play this season truly believes the 2-3 Rams are the third-best team in the NFL. Yet there they sit by being fifth in offensive FPI, sixth in defensive FPI and, of course, that pesky 32nd in special teams. With nearly 30% of the season complete, they’ve allowed more points than they’ve scored. They’ve lost to all three teams they’ve played that have a winning record, and if not for the Eagles gifting them a Week 4 win, they’d be 1-4. I’m willing to believe the Rams have what it takes to be one of the best teams in the NFL, but right now they are absolutely not.
Meanwhile, the 49ers look elite despite being riddled with injuries. They’re 5-0, second in offensive FPI and 10th in defensive FPI. They beat the Rams handily in the season opener and just won a knock-down, drag-out game against the Super Bowl champion Seahawks. Seattle (now 3-3) went into Thursday night’s game ranked second in FPI defense and special teams — but a troubling 14th in offense. If the Seahawks want a shot at repeating, they need to get the run game figured out the way they did as last season went along.
The Cardinals rank 23rd in FPI’s offensive rankings, dead last in defense and 29th in special teams. They are the main reason this division can’t dream of putting all four teams in the playoffs, but again, the Rams have yet to show us anything this season that should make us think this division could get three.
3. AFC North
Combined FPI rating: minus-2.5 (No. 5 of eight)
This is one of two divisions, along with the NFC North, in which all four teams have winning records. FPI doesn’t particularly love any of them. It has Cincinnati’s offense ranked sixth, Baltimore’s offense 11th (though Lamar Jackson‘s absence is woven in there), Pittsburgh’s offense 19th and Cleveland’s offense 31st. Defensively, FPI ranks the Ravens 14th, Steelers 15th, Browns 16th and Bengals 18th, which is about as mediocre and closely bunched as you can get.
Cincinnati’s offensive ranking, combined with FPI’s assessment of the 3-2 Bengals’ remaining schedule as the easiest in the league, offers hope for Joe Burrow‘s return to the postseason. Baltimore has the 4-1 first-place record and has yet to play a division game, so opportunity is there for the Ravens to take control. Jackson’s left ankle injury isn’t believed to be long term, and they just beat the Falcons with Tyler Huntley anyway.
FPI (and history) identify the Browns as the weak link here. They’ve been outscored by an average of 3.8 points per game but still have a 3-2 record. That’s a testament to the job first-year coach Todd Monken is doing, but it certainly offers license to wonder how sustainable it is over the rest of the season. And the Steelers? Well, quarterback Aaron Rodgers is flinging it, running back Jaylen Warren is on a hot streak, and the defense looks better than it did last season. They also have the head-to-head win over the Bengals in their pockets (though they also lost to the Browns). The Steelers are hard to figure, but they’re even harder to count out.
This division always feels like it has a chance to put at least three teams in the playoffs each season, and if the Browns keep overachieving, the North could make history.
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4. AFC West
Combined FPI rating: 1.8 (No. 3 of eight)
The Chiefs are back! FPI has them seventh in offense and eighth in defense after their bye week. And Patrick Mahomes seems to be feeling all the way recovered from last season’s major knee injury. After reaching the AFC Championship Game seven years in a row and winning three Super Bowls along the way, the Chiefs watched as two other AFC West teams made the playoffs last season. But they look like a good bet to resume their postseason streak at 4-0.
Last year’s No. 1 seed in the AFC, the Broncos, are 4-2. FPI has them ranked third in defense but 17th in offense. Early-season regression from quarterback Bo Nix and that side of the ball has raised concerns, but coach Sean Payton’s history and success the past couple of years offer reason for optimism. It also helps that their remaining schedule ranks second easiest in the NFL, according to FPI.
Without a doubt, the 0-5 Chargers are the most disappointing NFL team this season. After making the playoffs two years in a row under coach Jim Harbaugh, they have flopped miserably to start 2026. FPI ranks them fifth in defense, 25th in offense and 27th in special teams. The offense was supposed to go to the moon with QB Justin Herbert and new coordinator Mike McDaniel, but it continues to suffer from injuries to the line and receiving corps and can’t generate any kind of run game. Plus, Herbert has played the worst football of his career. Things are bleak for the Chargers, and a loss to the Chiefs in Week 6 could mean moves ahead of the trade deadline. FPI rates their remaining schedule the toughest in the league.
On the opposite end of the surprise spectrum are the 3-2 Raiders, who won their first three games before losing a close one to Kansas City and getting blown out by the defending AFC champion Patriots. FPI ranks them 21st in offense and 20th in defense, both of which are probably better than expected in Klint Kubiak’s first year as coach. Kubiak is obviously doing an excellent job so far, but the roster deficiencies that got exposed in Foxborough make it feel like the playoffs are a long shot this season.
5. AFC South
Combined FPI rating: minus-0.9 (No. 4 of eight)
It’s a huge week in the AFC South. The 1-4 Texans are taking on the 4-1 Jaguars in London on Sunday. A Texans win would keep their hopes alive after an 0-4 start. A Jacksonville win would probably sink Houston’s chances. As you can see, FPI likes the Texans a lot better than the standings do. Houston ranks fourth in defense and 13th in offense despite a poor run game and injury issues at wide receiver. The Texans were a preseason favorite that stumbled out of the blocks, but again, an upset Sunday would raise their chances and some eyebrows. The Jaguars, meanwhile, have been among the best teams in the NFL since the middle of last season. They’re eighth in offense and seventh in defense, with a chance to put the division in a choke hold this weekend.
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The Colts are a tough team to figure out. With Daniel Jones back healthy from an Achilles tear, the thought was the offense could at least approach the heights it attained last season. FPI has the Indy offense ranked 16th to go along with a 21st-ranked defense and 2-3 record. The people in charge of the Colts are under a lot of pressure from ownership to win now, so it’ll be interesting to watch what they do to improve as the season moves along. And the Titans, in their first year under coach Robert Saleh, rank 28th in FPI offense, 24th in defense and 31st in special teams. They’ve been terrible, and this season is now about figuring out if Cam Ward is really their QB of the future.
6. NFC East
Combined FPI rating: minus-8.5 (No. 7 of eight)
My first job at ESPN was NFC East blogger, so I’m always interested in this division — which currently has one team with a winning record. Somehow, it’s the lowest-ranked team in the division (and fourth lowest in the league) via FPI. That would be the 3-1-1 Giants, who our rankings say are 30th in offense and 25th in defense.
But true to coach John Harbaugh’s roots, they are third in special teams. The Giants’ wins have come on the margins, which is a testament to toughness and good coaching, especially since they lost quarterback Jaxson Dart for the season in Week 2. But two of their three wins were over Tennessee and Arizona, which are behind them in the overall FPI rankings. And the Giants were wildly lucky to get out of Washington on Sunday with a tie. The toughest parts of the Giants’ schedule lie ahead.
New York’s other win came in Week 1 against the Cowboys with Dart healthy. Dallas is 2-3 overall, and it’s not hard to see why. According to FPI, the Cowboys are third in offense, fifth in special teams and 29th in defense. They need to get the defense shored up if they’re going to make a run. The two-time defending division champion Eagles are 24th in offense and a somewhat disappointing 11th in defense. Their season feels like it’s teetering, as they’ve lost two straight games in which their win probability topped 96%. And the team got news Thursday that quarterback Jalen Hurts will miss Week 6 with a superficial blood clot in his calf.
And Washington, my goodness. After the worst late-game time management blunder in recent memory cost them a win over the Giants, FPI ranks the Commanders 18th in offense, 28th in defense and 26th in special teams. A healthy QB Jayden Daniels offers hope, as he was playing extremely well before forgetting about the clock in overtime Sunday, but you do wonder how a player bounces back from that type of game.
This division features just one top-20 FPI team, and if that team continues to struggle on defense, there could be zero NFC East teams with a winning record by the end of the season.
7. AFC East
Combined FPI rating: minus-4.9 (No. 6 of eight)
With two top-seven teams and two bottom-seven teams, the AFC East is turning out very much as expected. It looks like a two-team race between the Patriots and Bills, with the former already having a win in Buffalo from Week 4. That’s the Bills’ only loss. They beat the Rams on Monday night and get the privilege of being one of the two teams ahead of L.A. in the FPI rankings. Buffalo’s offense ranks first in FPI by a lot, which offsets its 26th-ranked defense. With the fifth-easiest remaining schedule, the Bills look like a good bet to make the playoffs for the eighth year in a row and possibly reclaim the division title from the Patriots.
New England weathered a tough stretch before that win in Buffalo, and it was back to looking like its conference-champion self in Week 5 against the Raiders. The Patriots have dealt with a slew of injuries to star players on both sides of the ball, but FPI still rates them ninth in both offense and defense. They have the seventh-easiest remaining schedule and are just a game behind Buffalo in the division standings.
The Jets could make a statement this Sunday in Foxborough, but FPI rates them 27th on offense and 23rd on defense. And New York has already absorbed a couple of close losses en route to a 2-3 record. The 0-5 Dolphins are the worst team in our FPI rankings by a good margin. With nearly $185 million in dead money salary cap charges, this was always going to be a reset year in Miami, and it appears that’s exactly what it is.
8. NFC South
Combined FPI rating: minus-12.0 (No. 8 of eight)
This is the division in which no team finished with a winning record last season, and so far none of these teams has a winning record. Defending division champ Carolina leads at 2-2 coming off its bye week. It ranks 15th in offense, 17th in defense and 16th in special teams. It’s as if FPI was an AI agent and you asked it, “What’s the definition of a middle-of-the-pack team?” Even the Panthers’ remaining schedule ranks middle-of-the-pack — 17th, according to FPI. Yeah, they could win this division again. Or they could finish fourth. That’s the way the NFC South rolls.
The Falcons were red-hot after getting starting QB Michael Penix Jr. back from injury for Week 3, reeling off two impressive wins in a row. They lost to the Ravens in overtime Sunday night to drop to 2-3. FPI ranks Atlanta 20th in offense, 22nd in defense and 20th in special teams, with the eighth-toughest remaining schedule. The Saints rank 22nd in offense, 27th in defense and 21st in special teams, but they have the third-easiest remaining schedule via FPI. That offers significant hope if they can turn even one of those struggling units around.
The surprise here is the Buccaneers, who entered the season as the division favorites but promptly lost their first four games. Along the way, they also lost starting QB Baker Mayfield to a thumb injury. Rookie backup Jalon Daniels led the Bucs to victory over the Cowboys in Week 5, but Tampa Bay still ranks dead last in offensive FPI, which is enough to offset its 13th-ranked defense and put it last in this division. The Bucs will need Mayfield back and improvement from their whole offense to make a run, even in a division that’s very much used to having just one playoff team.
