The FedEx Cup Playoffs have varied in their level of predictability over the last few years with the 2025 edition likely to fall into a more unpredictable category. With the PGA Tour in May announcing a change to the Tour Championship format that will allow all 30 golfers in the postseason final to start at a level playing field, just advancing to East Lake Golf Club will create a legitimate chance to claim the top prize at the season’s conclusion.
Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland have claimed FedEx Cup crowns in recent years, and all three should factor in some capacity this postseason. With the added variance introduced in the Tour Championship and no starting strokes awarded to players, there may be some outsiders who present an inside chance at raising the silver cup.
As few as two or as many as 12 rounds of golf separate players from their offseasons as the top 70 on the PGA Tour play in the St. Jude Championship before the field is trimmed to 50 players at the BMW Championship and finally 30 for the Tour Championship.
Could someone from outside the top 50 play his way into the BMW Championship, the Tour Championship and even the winner’s circle at East Lake?
So, what exactly is going to happen across the three weeks of the FedEx Cup Playoffs? Let’s take a first look at some predictions and picks from our CBS Sports experts as we attempt to project who will win — and what will go down — in this iteration of the postseason.
2025 FedEx Cup Playoffs picks, expert predictions
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Patrick McDonald, golf writer
Pick to win FedEx Cup — Russell Henley (22-1): Henley enters the playoffs inside the top five in the season-long race and is assured of a tee time at the Tour Championship. He finished in 3rd last season at a restored East Lake and will arrive this year in the best form of his career. The reliable right hander continues to contend (and win) in big-time events like major championships and signature events, so it is not a stretch to suggest he can do so again in a limited field.
Sleeper to win FedEx Cup — Aaron Rai (200-1): A lot of work needs to be done for Rai, but he has the makeup to go all the way. The Englishman is outside the top-50 bubble at the onset of the postseason, but a strong start at TPC Southwind could serve as a launchpad for the month of August. Rai just finished inside the top five at the Wyndham Championship, and he’s a perfect fit for TPC Southwind and East Lake should he make it that far.
Most likely to disappoint — Ben Griffin (starts at No. 6): Griffin got back on the wagon at the Wyndham Championship but had hit a little snag before that with two straight missed cuts at the John Deere Classic and The Open. he will be playing golf courses — Caves Valley and East Lake — that he has not seen before in PGA Tour competition, and his ball striking has taken a dip from its summer peak.
Player with the most on the line — Jordan Spieth (starts at No. 48): Spieth was criticized throughout 2025 due to accepting sponsor invitations into signature events, but now he has a chance to play himself into those tournaments. If he maintains his place inside the top 50, Spieth will be able to pick and choose his schedule in 2026, which he even admitted will be a big season for him on his road back from wrist surgery. If he exceeds expectations and qualifies for the Tour Championship, that likely means he contended in (or won) one of the first two playoff events, which would certainly raise eyebrows from U.S. Ryder Cup leadership.
Robby Kalland, golf writer
Pick to win FedEx Cup — Scottie Scheffler (12/5): Why bother talking your way into someone else winning these big events only to watch Scheffler steamroll the field? He torched the new-look East Lake last year (-20 without starting strokes), and I see no reason to believe he can’t do it again this year. The ball-striking travels everywhere, and it sure seems like his putter is making more trips than not now, too, which is a terrifying proposition.
Sleeper to win FedEx Cup — Wyndham Clark (190-1): Wyndham has been on a tear since destroying some lockers at Oakmont.
Do I agree with his methods? No, but it’s hard to argue with the results. He’s gone T17, MC, T11, T4 and T12 since the U.S. Open, clawing his way to 49th in the standings. He’ll need to do more work to make it to East Lake, but he got a top 10 at the St. Jude last year, and Caves Valley was friendly to long-hitters in 2021. There is absolutely a path for him to get inside the top 30, and if he makes it to East Lake, he’s got a 3rd and 8th place finish there the last two years.
Most likely to disappoint — Keegan Bradley (starts at No. 10): Since the first playoff event moved to Memphis, Bradley has gone MC, T43 and T59 at the St. Jude. That doesn’t bode well for getting off to the kind of hot start he needs in these playoffs to take a little pressure off his impending Ryder Cup captain’s picks. If he doesn’t have a great showing in either of the first two playoff events, his decision on whether to pick himself as a playing captain becomes even more difficult.
After he won the Traveler’s Championship, he seemed to be a lock for the team, but Bradley has faded some down the stretch as others have come on strong late in the year to give him some really tough choices. He’s done an incredible job this year keeping Keegan the player separate from Keegan the captain, but that’s going to be nearly impossible these next two weeks with captain’s picks due after the BMW. It also seems fitting that this decision be as tortuous as possible, and that would be the case if he is limping through the playoffs.
Player with the most on the line — Collin Morikawa (starts at No. 19): There’s three players have a case for this spot: Morikawa, Spieth and Bradley. Two of those names have been discussed already, so I won’t rehash them here. Morikawa has been spiraling to end his season. He’s gone through multiple caddie changes (with another new bag man this week in Memphis), sparred with the media at different times, posted one top 10 finish going back to the Masters (T8 at the Rocket Classic), missed his last two cuts and now stands outside the top 6 for an automatic spot on the U.S. Ryder Cup team.
For a guy that was looking formidable to start the year and long stood as one of the most consistent performers on the PGA Tour, it has been a rather stunning season from Morikawa. The playoffs provide a pivot point for him. If he continues to struggle, he’s not fully locked into the Tour Championship. While it’d be shocking for him to miss the Ryder Cup team, he’s certainly not making the best case for himself going into Bethpage Black.
However, Morikawa does have three more chances to right the ship and build some momentum going into the Ryder Cup. He’s played solidly at the St. Jude in the past and would’ve beaten Scheffler at East Lake last year if not for the starting strokes. There may not be a top player in greater need of some positivity on the course right now than Morikawa, and if he can’t find that, chatter will only grow louder before Bethpage.
Who will win the FedEx St. Jude Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard and best bets, all from the model that’s nailed 16 golf majors heading into the weekend — including the past four Masters — and is up over $8,500 since June 2020.
