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Win the Weekend – Fantasy football notes, NFL and college betting tips

Want the latest trends, competitions and injury news from the world of football? We got you. Want to know where the public’s money is this week? We got you.Want to know which teams to play, who to list in DFS or who to select in your game Eliminator pool? We have you too. Here’s everything you need to know as you prepare for your fantasy football games and potential bets on this weekend’s games.

Circulating fluidized bed: Action Report | Analytics Benefits | Confidence Pool Selection

National Football League: Injury Updates | Exploitable Matchups | Knockout Challenges | DFS Play | Analytical Edge | Action Reports | “Dolan Out Winners” | Confidence Pool Picks | Pigskin Picks

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David Purdum’s Operational Report



Finebaum: Colorado has a ‘boxer’s chance’ to beat USC

Paul Finebaum and Heather Dinich discuss whether Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes will bounce back from last week’s blowout win over USC.

Seth Wold’s biggest strengths in ESPN analysis

  • Syracuse Orange vs. Clemson Tigers +6.5: In terms of overall efficiency, a measure of game-level performance adjusted for opponent strength and garbage time, these teams are far apart. Syracuse University is ranked 15th and Clemson University is ranked 50th. What keeps Clemson’s prediction alive is the preseason games we had before that — which are still important — but not enough. FPI thinks Syracuse should win by a slim margin at home, which is a big difference from the betting lines.

  • No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes win national championship (9-1): It wasn’t pretty, but the Buckeyes barely beat Notre Dame last week. The most important thing is winning. There are other hurdles before the playoffs (Penn State vs. Michigan), but FPI believes the Buckeyes are the best team in the country, and that’s important. This gives them a 21% chance of winning.

Joe Fortenbaugh’s CFB Confidence Picks

  • No. 8 USC Colorado over 73.5: I put the total price at 77, so it still has some value. USC is averaging 55 points per game and has scored at least 42 points in all four games this season. Additionally, I think the Trojans were caught looking into this game after giving Arizona State a tougher-than-expected run last week. The main reason I think this total is underestimated is because of Colorado’s offensive performance last Saturday at Oregon State. However, the Ducks’ defense is much better than USC’s, not to mention this is a home game and that’s a road game for Coach Prime and company. Colorado would score enough to go over the total.

  • Georgia Southern Eagles -6.5 vs. Coastal Carolina Gamecocks: Clay Helton has been a huge contributor to a Georgia Southern program that has the Eagles now 3-1 on their way to 3-0-1 in three games. Posted a +85 point differential in games not played by Wisconsin. On the other hand, Coastal Carolina, led by Tim Beck, has fallen short of our performance against the Chanticleers in recent seasons, losing at home by 13 points last week. That was evident to Georgia State, despite finishing with a 5-point advantage.

  • TCU Horned Frogs-13.5 vs. West Virginia Mountaineers: TCU was undervalued due to a 45-42 home loss to Colorado in the season opener. However, the Horned Frogs have quietly climbed back into the fold thanks to three straight double-digit wins over Nicholls, Houston and Southern Methodist University. Let’s take advantage of the pricing here against the Mountaineers, who may be coming off a 20-13 upset win over Texas Tech last Saturday.

National Football League



Why the Broncos might be a safe bet against the Bears

Erin Dolan expects the Broncos to outscore the Bears’ “poor” defense to back up the bet.

Stephanie Bell injury update

  • Analysis of all the key injuries of note will be updated throughout the weekend.

  • Get all the latest injury news here.

Matt Bowen vs.

  • New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones versus the Dallas Cowboys’ orchestrated defensive front: The Cowboys lead the NFL with 49.5% pressures. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn will plan his defensive lineups to create matchups for Micah Parsons and open up rushing lanes with twist stunts. The goal should be to get Jones warmed up on Sunday.

  • Tyreek Hill’s zone coverage against the Buffalo Bills: This season, Buffalo has used a combination of single-high and split safety coverage on 61.6 percent of opponent dropbacks. Expect Mike McDaniel to come up with some deep, flat route concepts to open up coverage for Hill.

  • For more details, check out Matt Bowen’s Film Room.

Mike Clay’s Knockout Challenge Tips

Al Zeidenfeld’s DFS performance



Is Quentin Johnston’s fantasy worth watching?

Field Yates explains Quentin Johnston’s place in the Chargers’ receiving corps.

  • I’d love to try building the Chargers and Raiders stacks around Keenan Allen ($7,900) and Davante Adams ($8,000) again. With both men likely to be core players in cash games, this would make the pair very popular in the tournament, along with Josh Palmer, who is worth just $4,000, and is in the mix at Mike William With him out for the season, his current role is clearly mispriced. If this is the route chosen, it’s important to not only find value that fits the primary stack, but also try to identify lower play combinations to lower the overall percentage hold of the lineup in order to be more counter-trend. Value plays like Calvin Austin ($3,300), Josh Downs ($3,500), Najee Harris ($5,500) and Javonte Williams ($5,500) will give us the opportunity to not only save money but also differentiate our tournament lineup from some of the other players Come apart.

  • More DFS in play here.

Seth Wold’s biggest strengths in ESPN analysis

  • Philadelphia Eagles D/ST Anytime TD (DraftKings 6-1): Sam Howell has firing issues. Sam Howell has interception issues. The Eagles’ defense is dangerous. It’s a perfect combination. I put the fair price at +438.

  • Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Mike Danna is under 0.25 sacks (-125 on DraftKings): Denner has 2.5 sacks this season but has never had more than five sacks in a year. Additionally, his 6% pass rush win rate leaves a lot to be desired. Even against Zach Wilson and the New York Jets, that’s a low price you can’t pass up.

  • Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Rider over 0.5 INT (+143): The Jacksonville Jaguars defense ranks third in EPA allowed runs per design. That could force Atlanta to pitch, which would increase Reid’s draft chances. I give Ridder a 47% chance of interception, which is value against this line.

David Purdum’s Operational Report

  • SuperBook and South Point Sportsbooks report the Patriots are strong at +7 against Dallas, which has dropped the Cowboys odds to -6.5. South Point Sportsbook Director Chris Andrews said he thinks bettors overlooked injuries on the Cowboys’ offensive line in last week’s loss to the Cardinals. “They’re not going to ignore them this week,” Andrews said. SuperBook executive director John Murray also said that smart bettors have placed the Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers odds at +3, causing the Pittsburgh Steelers odds to drop to -2.5.

  • Caesars Sportsbook reports the Broncos are making some early action against the Bears in Chicago, a game against a winless team. “The money is really coming out of Denver with some sharp action,” Craig Mucklow, Caesars’ vice president of sports betting trading, said on the company’s podcast. The Nuggets were favored by 2.5 points at Sunday’s opener, and as of this week Four, that number has increased to -3.5 points.

  • Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is the favorite to be named regular season MVP by sportsbooks. After the Dolphins beat the Broncos 70-20 last week, Tagovailoa rose to +325 from +700 at PointsBet (Fanatics). Prior to the game against the Denver Nuggets, Tagovailoa attracted fewer MVP bets than Bears quarterback Justin Fields.

“The Dolan Winner” by Erin Dolan



Why Erin Dolan loves Vikings vs. Panthers game

Erin Dolan explains why she scored four points in the Vikings’ game against the Panthers this weekend.

  • Minnesota Vikings -4 vs. Carolina Panthers: In a matchup between two winless teams, I believe the Vikings offense can score more points than the Panthers. The Vikings offense is allowing an average of 23 points per game and has lost by 4 points in all three games. For an 0-3 team, Kirk Cousins ​​is averaging 358 yards on 46 pass attempts per game. Minnesota came very close to beating the Chargers last week if not for Cousins’ late pick at the end of the game. Both defenses gave up 27 points per game the first three weeks, so it’s going to come down to the offense. The Panthers’ offense is averaging just 18 points per game. Andy Dalton started at quarterback last week, but Bryce Young may eventually return. I’m going to go with Cousins ​​and his teammates to win and cover on the road.

  • Broncos vs. Bears total over 24.5 points: Both teams are 0-3 and 0-3 ahead, ranking in the bottom two in the league in points allowed per game. So what can we believe? I believe the Bears defense will continue to get worse. Chicago has lost 13 straight games by more than 25 points.The Broncos’ offense is averaging 23 points per game, so they should be able to do some damage to this defense – and think The damage caused by their own defense allowed the Heat to score 70 points. The Bears allowed three opponents to score more than 24.5 points.

Anita Marks’ NFL Confidence Picks

  • Chiefs at New York Jets -8.5: The Jets are still struggling under Zach Wilson, but he barely leads the team in points per game by 10 points per game. KC’s defense has been outstanding this season and has the ability to beat Wilson. The Chiefs will put up at least 20 points against a Jets defense that is losing patience. Trust Travis Kelce to score a touchdown for Taylor Swift anytime (-155)!

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints Under 39.5 points: Derek Carr is dealing with a shoulder injury and will likely not play in Week 4. The Buccaneers have a short work week after losing to the Eagles on Monday Night Football and now have to travel to the Big Easy. The Saints got Alvin Kamara back to run and catch the ball out of the backfield. The matchup between Mike Evans and Marshon Latimore should be interesting, although Latimore has dominated in past meetings.

Pigskin Pick’em by Tyler Fulghum

I definitely didn’t see some of the frustrating stuff that happened in week three. The Cowboys lost to the Cardinals! The Jaguars and Ravens, who were heavy favorites, also lost at home. This is why we love the NFL. Expect the unexpected.I don’t know which “gifts” in Week 4 will produce unexpected results Pigskin picking.

  • packing worker

  • jaguars

  • dolphin

  • Broncos

  • browns

  • Bengal tiger

  • rams

  • saint

  • eagles

  • Vikings

  • steelers

  • charger

  • cowboy

  • 49ers

  • chiefs

  • giants

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